Notre Dame Fighting Irish (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS) vs. Texas Longhorns (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS)
College Football Week 1
Date/Time: Sunday, September 4, 2016 at 7:30PM EST
Where: Royal Texas Memorial Stadium, Austin, Texas
TV: ABC
By Loot, NCAA Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Point Spread: ND -4.5/TEX +4.5
Over/Under Total: 60
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish come to Austin to take on the Texas Longhorns on Sunday. As both teams kick off their seasons. Both teams are in a high-urgency state. Texas is at home against a top-ten team and in desperate need of some positive developments after a 5-7 season put Longhorns coach Charlie Strong on the hot-seat. Notre Dame is coming off a ten-win season, but look to return to the national stage this season.
The Irish weren't that far off last season. They started 10-1 with their only loss a two-point setback to eventual runner-up Clemson. They also lost to Pac-12 champion Stanford by two, with their other loss a bowl defeat to Ohio State. There are a lot of questions to answer with a sizeable youth movement, but with enough guys returning from injury and remaining pieces to foster some optimism. And for Texas, this is a critical season. Look for a boost with offensive coordinator Sterlin Gilbert speeding things up and getting this offense moving with a more-up-tempo and diversified offensive approach.
Looking to accommodate Gilbert's up-tempo offense at quarterback will either be returning Tyrone Swoopes or freshman Shane Buechle, who appears to be the heir-apparent. It's a tough choice, with Strong not in a position to suffer growing pains with a young QB, with Swoopes having not shown himself to be the most attractive option, either. Chris Warren, III and D'Onta Foreman look to head a ground-game that looks to be the strength of this offense. Guys like John Burt and Armanti Foreman lead an inexperienced receiver crew, but perhaps they can find answers with some exciting incoming talent. Former QB Jerrod Heard could make some noise as an aerial target. In the passing-game, the options look extensive, but someone who can get vertical needs to really materialize. This entire team only got into the end zone through the air 9 times last season.
In 2015, the Texas "D" allowed 453 yards per game, en route to being the 107th total defense in the country. Their true Achilles heel was their run-stop, which was atrocious. That will need to be addressed. Not that the line is bad, as they managed 37 sacks last season with Naashan Hughes, Paul Boyette, Poona Ford, Bryce Cottrell, and others. They just need to get stouter on the inside. Malik Jefferson is an excellent linebacker and with Anthony Wheeler, could be a decent group in the middle. Holton Hill and Davante Davis at corner with Jason Hill and Dylan Haines at safety comprise an experienced secondary that could thrive with some help up-front.
The Irish have a QB battle on their hands, as well. Malik Zaire was the designated starter last season, before going down early, which paved the way for DeShone Kizer, who played pretty well. In addition to the return of Zaire, this offense should also get a boost from senior running back Tarean Folston, who was lost in last season's opener. This program always seems to spring forth with good receiving talent and they will need that this season after some key personnel losses. Torii Hunter, Jr. looks to be getting better and there's always talent in the wings, but the offseason wasn't kind in this regard, with Corey Robinson retiring and Alize Jones getting suspended. And the line lost a monster in LT Ronnie Stanley, while also needing a new guard and center. A certain amount of faith should be extended, as they typically reload well in this area. Still, when you combine some holes in the line with what may be a thin receiving crew, this doesn't jump off the page as one of the better ND offenses in recent seasons.
More good news in the form of players returning from injury boost the Irish defense, with the return of DT Jarron Jones. Look for that to give a major boost to the Irish run-stop. The middle loses a major contributor in Jaylon Smith. Look for Nyles Morgan and some youth to try to fill the void in production. Cole Luke returns, though again, some youth will be relied upon to deliver. At the end of the day, a lot of youngsters are being called upon. This unit will need to surprise or it could be a tepid group by Irish standards. They could also use an infusion of playmaking ability and a better run-defense after getting run over a handful of times in '15. On August 20, some arrests were made of various ND players, especially hitting the "D," with S Max Redfield dismissed from the program and LB Te'Von Coney suspended. Also suspended is senior corner Devin Butler. This kind of stuff doesn't help one bit.
It seems like it wasn't long ago when former Texas coach Mack Brown was being pushed out, with optimism surrounding Charlie Strong's arrival to Austin. He has led the Longhorns to an 11-14 mark and it's been a while since big things were happening for this program. After two ragtag seasons, you'd think it would manifest into some sort of payoff in his third season, but the picture still doesn't look all that rosy. They still look pedestrian on offense, unless this new fast approach works. And if they can't stop the run, it's going to be a long season.
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With Notre Dame's Brian Kelly, he seems to just have more of a magic touch perhaps. In the last four seasons, he's won 39 games. He took over a program that was in even worse shape than the Longhorns were when Strong took over. In the three seasons before Kelly arrived, the Irish had gone 16-21. In other words, we have two teams with a lot of questions to answer. Who has earned your faith?
Texas can keep games close and they're at home. There is optimism in the air in Austin, with everything up in the air for week one. You just never know. These teams played in last season's opener, with Notre Dame getting the lopsided 38-3 win at home. One should expect a less-dead Texas offense this season and the locale of this season's matchup is more favorable. This isn't easy, but I sense the Fighting Irish getting a bit of late separation and covering the number.
Loot's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I'm betting on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish minus 4.5 points. Tired of your credit card not working for sportsbook deposit? End that problem today by signing up at Bovada Sportsbook where your credit card WILL work and where you'll receive a generous 50% sign-up bonus!
