Ohio State Buckeyes (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS) vs. Oklahoma Sooners (1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS)
College Football Week 3
Date/Time: Saturday, September 17, 2016 at 7:30PM EST
Where: Memorial Stadium, Norman, Oklahoma
TV: Fox
By Loot, NCAA Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Betting Odds: OSU -2.5/OKLA +2.5
Over/Under Total: Off
In key week three action with the stakes high, the Ohio State Buckeyes come to Norman to face the Oklahoma Sooners. This is the first-ever regular season meeting between two of the more-storied programs in college football. So far, the season has gone according to plan for Ohio St. They outscored their first two opponents, Bowling Green and Tulsa, by a combined score of 125-13. Things figure to get appreciably more difficult this week against an home Oklahoma bunch that has an axe to grind and some ground to make up after a deflating week one loss to Houston. They were able to follow that with a 59-17 win over Louisiana-Monroe on Saturday for their first win of the season.
Ohio State got a big boost from their defense in week two. In the first half, Ohio St. went up 20-3 on the strength of two interceptions returned for touchdowns. Their offense was having trouble getting out of the gates, going 2-for-8 on third downs and just generally being flat. In the second quarter, the game was tied. While they got their act together in the second half with four offensive touchdowns, the offense had some issues and was only 5-for-14 on third downs overall and stuff like that can cost a team when they get in there with the heavy hitters on their schedule. Against Tulsa, the final score and the cover are what speak loudest at the end of the day. But one could project how a better team could have taken advantage of some of these mistakes better and Oklahoma could be that team.
The Ohio State defense has been pretty effective in the first two games of the season. They picked off 4 balls against Tulsa, with a pair of defensive TDs. They also secured three picks in week one, including another pick-six. Safety Malik Hooker picked off two balls in week one, before taking one to the house on Saturday, with corner Marshon Lattimore picking two off against Tulsa, including a TD return. And holding Tulsa to under 200 total yards counts for something. Again, things get a little more difficult for this bunch against what might be the most explosive offense they face all season.
Ohio St. quarterback JT Barrett has been solid back in the starting role. With the defense taking such a lead role in the scoring, the aerial attack took a backseat on Saturday. Barrett used his legs in the red-zone, punching it in for two touchdowns. Mike Weber also scored once, while Curtis Samuel and Dontre Wilson also chimed in with some production in the air and on the ground. Against Oklahoma, however, they are facing a high-urgency team. They can't afford a slow start and hope the defense picks up the slack. In this game, we should have a better idea of where the Buckeyes really stand in terms of the big picture. And while it was nice for the "D" to chip in so nicely against Tulsa and Bowling Green, let's see what they can come up with when it really counts.
Oklahoma won't get a ton of credit for their romp over LA-Monroe, but it was necessary to put some distance between them and their week one disappointment. The Sooners didn't waste any time making the game a non-issue, with their key offensive pieces in full-flight and Mayfield extra-sharp. And getting those stars established was key, as they prepare to play a really big game this week. A loss to Ohio State would be a major crimp in the plans of a team that made the College Football Playoff last season and had high hopes to make a national splash again this season.
Sooners QB Baker Mayfield threw for 244 yards and three TDs before leaving the game after the first half. He looked better, making quicker decisions and seeing the field better. Their 1-2 punch at running back with Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon was able to manifest, as Mixon ran for 117 yards, while Perine found the end zone twice. That was key after their run-game was effectively grounded in week one against Houston. It's only week three and Oklahoma already faces a scenario where they can work their way back towards the top with a big win here. Expect this Oklahoma offense to be putting in a robust effort at home on Saturday in a really huge game.
Defensively is where the issues seem to linger for Oklahoma. Against the Sun Belt's Louisiana-Monroe, they gave a slew of big-yardage plays. They clamped down when necessary, allowing just 2-for-14 on third down conversions. But they can be exploited, as was evident in their season opener against Houston. The pass-defense has been exploited, as Louisiana-Monroe nearly had 300 yards in the air, with Houston's Greg Ward, Jr. going over 300 in week one.
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Oklahoma catches a scheduling break with this one being at home. Norman is not an easy place for Ohio State to come visit. It's a little out-of-context for the Buckeyes, playing a top-notch Big 12 team on the road. And with them not looking terribly sharp offensively, Oklahoma might be in a good spot to do some damage. But if Ohio State's offense were to put together a full 60-minute effort, this is a Sooners' defense they can exploit. Having failed to cover the spread in their first two weeks, Oklahoma has been disappointing so far and either they snap into form now or it might all be for naught. Let's try to grasp the true level of urgency of the home team here. Jobs are on the line and one should expect Stoops to leave no stones unturned.
This is a difficult road spot for the Buckeyes, but Urban Meyer hasn't compiled a 54-4 record with Ohio State because he doesn't know how to win in tough spots. At the same time, the idea of Oklahoma as a home dog against an Ohio State that hasn't been all-that-convincing is a decent enough proposition for us to put a taste on the Sooners.
Loot's Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I'm betting on the Oklahoma Sooners plus 2.5 points. Tired of your credit card not working for sportsbook deposit? End that problem today by signing up at Bovada Sportsbook where your credit card WILL work and where you'll receive a generous 100% sign-up bonus!
