Oklahoma Sooners (8-1 SU, 7-2 ATS) vs. Baylor Bears (8-0 SU, 4-3 ATS)
College Football Week 11
Date/Time: Saturday, November 14, 2015 at 8PM EST
Where: McLane Stadium, Waco, Texas
TV: ABC
By Loot, NCAA Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Point Spread: OKLA +3/BAY -3
Over/Under Total: 77.5
The Oklahoma Sooners meet the Baylor Bears at McLane Stadium on Saturday in a high-stakes Big 12 Conference matchup. The 8-0 Bears are looking to add more clout to their resume, something they could accomplish with a big win over the dangerous Sooners. The Bears played last Thursday, beating Kansas State, 31-24, in their first game without QB Seth Russell. True freshman Jarrett Stidham filled in nicely with over 400 yards passing and 3 TD throws. Oklahoma stayed on track on Saturday, registering a hassle-free 52-16 home win over Iowa State. Since their upset loss to Texas, they've won 4 games in a row, covering the spread each time, as they seem to be trying to atone for that most unexpected defeat.
The season was thrown into a funk for the Bears when Russell went down for the year with his 29 touchdown throws. But Stidham was productive in his first start, going for 419 yards. He made a good initial connection with star receiver Corey Coleman, who was at 216 yards receiving with a pair of touchdowns. For a true freshman in his first start, he did very well and it at least rekindles the optimism for Baylor and their long-term prospects as it pertains to the big picture. The 31-24 score was a little too close for comfort against Kansas State and likely didn't further their overall cause, but it's a good sign as Baylor moves ahead to the games that will determine whether or not they make it to the College Football Playoff—namely this game, and the matchups that follow against Oklahoma State and TCU.
At 57.4 points a game, the Baylor offense is the highest-scoring offense in college football this season. Stidham will need to show he has the knack for putting up scores in frenzied fashion, which didn't happen against Kansas State with a relatively-low 34 points scored. Stidham has ample weapons upon which to rely, including Coleman, who has 20 receiving touchdowns. Also in the aerial attack are difference-makers like Jay Lee and KD Cannon, who have combined for 10 touchdowns. But unlike most high-flying aerial attacks, Baylor is anything but one-dimensional. Their rushing attack is ranked higher than their passing-game, with the Bears being the 5th best running team in the country, led by Shock Linwood with a big assist from Terence Williams and Johnny Jefferson. It's a wonder how they fit so much offense into the game. But their point totals have decreased for each of the past 4 weeks and a return to their high-flying ways would be called for this week against the Sooners. If they managed only 31 against the Wildcats, it might get tougher against an Oklahoma defense that is likely the best in the conference.
Baylor's defense has been a non-issue with Baylor putting up basketball totals for most of the season. But as we get into this part of the schedule for the Bears, it's likely to become much more of a factor. Baylor has allowed an average of 25 points per game, which is pretty good, but they're really a mid-pack unit as far as defensive prowess goes. Against some of the better offensive teams in the conference, they've been a bit dicey, allowing 89 to West Virginia, Iowa State, and KSU in their last three games, a number that could go up as they start facing the better offenses in the Big 12. They will need more of their playmakers to step up. Points will be allowed. But key stops here and there and some big plays could make all the difference. Corners Xavien Howard and Ryan Reid have combined for 7 picks. Some of that this week would really hit the spot.
Against Iowa State on Saturday, the Oklahoma offense continued its fine form, as QB Baker Mayfield threw for 342 yards and three touchdowns, while running in another. In his last 4 games, Mayfield has thrown 14 touchdowns with just one pick. He's been playing well, which you could say about the whole team. In their last 4 games, against conference opponents Kansas State, Texas Tech, Kansas, and ISU, Texas outscored their opponents 232-50. Look for Mayfield to keep spreading around the ball to Sterling Shepard, Dede Westbrook, and Durron Neal aerially. Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon are doing a nice job out of the backfield. At 46.3 points per game, OK has the 3rd-highest-scoring offense in the nation. They have good balance, able to strike with nearly-equal aplomb with the passing game or the ground attack. And they do it behind a big O-line that keeps Mayfield out of trouble, while opening holes up for the running game.
The Sooners defense gave up 38 to Tulsa in week 3, but hasn't given up more than 27 points since, with opponents scoring 16 or less 4 times. In what might be good news against Baylor, the defense is actually pretty resolute against the pass. Quarterbacks who had been riding high have hit a wall against the Sooners. This is a defense that can make some plays, as they've registered 30 sacks, 11 interceptions, and 5 fumble recoveries.
This is a tough one. Baylor catches a break with this one being at home. They need to win, as a one-loss Baylor is likely out of the CFP running. The stakes are clear. And for Oklahoma, the CFP might be a pipe dream, but there are still big things on the table for the Sooners. In a nutshell, the Baylor offense is more explosive than the Sooners, but we're talking about the highest-scoring team in the nation with Baylor, with the Sooners third in that category. The Sooners' defense is more of a championship unit than Baylor's perhaps. Oklahoma had their dud against Texas. Since that, they've looked good enough to make that loss something you don't want to over-consider for this game. It showed what can happen if the Sooners don't fire, but Baylor didn't look all that great last week, while Oklahoma has been running over opponents. I think the fact that the Sooners are peaking and the loss of Russell is enough to tip the scales ever-so-slightly toward the Sooners.
Loot's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I'm betting on the Oklahoma Sooners plus 3 points.
