Oregon Ducks (2-0 SU, 0-2 ATS) vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS)
College Football Week 3
Date/Time: Saturday, September 17, 2016 at 3:30PM EST
Where: Memorial Stadium, Lincoln, Nebraska
TV: ABC
By Loot, NCAA Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Betting Odds: ORE +3/NEB -3
Over/Under Total: Off
The Oregon Ducks make the trip out east to Lincoln to face the Nebraska Cornhuskers on Saturday in Pac-12 vs. Big Ten action in week three. Nebraska has done what's been asked of them to get here, beating Fresno State and Wyoming and notching covers in both games. It gets a little more serious here against the Oregon Ducks, who moved to 2-0 with a 44-26 win over Virginia in week two. Let's see if Oregon can thrive as their schedule ramps up this week in terms of difficulty.
Nebraska is primed to score a big win at home. Having opened up at home, this is their third straight game at Memorial Stadium to open the season. They're nice and dug in and they had two perfect warm-ups to get ready for this. First came a slaughter of a woefully outmanned Fresno, before they were fed a little tougher opponent with Wyoming. Going into the 4th quarter, it was only 24-17 Nebraska, as a much-improved Wyoming team was being very resourceful and hanging in there capably. Four final-quarter touchdowns put an end to matters and made the game look more lopsided than it really was. All and all, it was the ideal game to prepare for what should a far more robust test this week for the 'Huskers.
Six Wyoming turnovers in the second half pretty much sealed the deal for the Cornhuskers on Saturday. Sure, on the surface, Nebraska was able to secure a 52-17 win. But it was close in the 4th quarter, with turnovers leading to Wyoming's demise more than anything the 'Huskers did. It's a win that looks a little better on paper than it really is. Still, there were more positive signs in week two. QB Tommy Armstrong, Jr. threw for 377 yards and 3 touchdowns, two of which were caught by a burgeoning receiver talent in Jordan Westerkamp. Armstrong, Jr. also ran in a TD and has become a versatile red-zone threat. In week one, it was mostly their run-game that allowed them to win and cover the spread. Chalk this past week's performance more on the aerial attack. Moving forward and likely in this matchup, that versatility will be called upon to succeed.
This is easily one of the bigger games in Lincoln in the last few years. Nebraska is trying to get back to the national stage and are facing a good team at home where a win will go a long way toward achieving some of their goals. Offensively, it looks like Mike Riley's imagination has manifested, with tight end sweeps and other creative plays along the way. And when this line allows Armstrong, Jr. to get into a groove, he is actually really good. We'll see how he does with a little more pressure, as Oregon always seems to produce blue-chippers up-front on defense.
The Nebraska defense figures to really be tested this week. Unlike the relatively drab offenses of Fresno and Wyoming, Oregon brings a stacked offensive cast into town. On Saturday, the Nebraska defense was able to make a slew of plays, with Nate Gerry picking off two passes, while Kieron Williams ran one back for a touchdown. In the second year of a new system and more returning pieces than last season, this group is supposed to have an upgrade this season, but it was hard to tell if that's true after their first two games. This week will show what this defense can do against a premier offense. And they don't need to be great. They just need to prevent an Oregon free-for-all, notch some timely stops, and create some big plays in the form of turnovers, sacks on third down, and the like.
After beating FCS opponent Davis in week one, Oregon beat up Virginia last Saturday. The score looked more competitive than it was, as Virginia added a couple late touchdowns to make it look closer. And while the games were in hand, Oregon giving up 28 to Davis and 26 to Virginia is a cause for concern. Last season, the defense was the sticking point, as it cost Oregon a taste at some bigger things. Brady Hoke was brought in to shore up this unit and they haven't looked that great through two games. Hoke is going with a 4-3 and it might take time for them to adjust,
Offensively, there are no such issues. Even with a new QB behind center in Dakota Prukop, the cast of supporting players is so deep that opposing offenses will be hard-pressed to keep pace. In his second start, Prukop threw for 331 yards and 3 TD strikes. He has a real gem in running back Royce Freeman, who gained 207 yards on the ground on Saturday against Virginia with two TD runs. Olympian Devon Allen came alive with 141 yards receiving and a TD. After being injured last season, Pharaoh Brown caught 5 balls and a TD. Darren Carrington had a good game. There are a lot of pieces in this offense.
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The Oregon offense will need some support from the "D." It's great to have an offense that can score at will at times. But against better teams that can sustain offensive drives of their own, this defense will need to make an impact or it could throw off the offense, set them off-rhythm, and not let them on the field. In other words, with a "D" struggling against their first two opponents, how will they do against a much-better Nebraska offense? Not that the 'Huskers offense is that electric, but they are a major upgrade over Oregon's first two opponents.
Lincoln is never an easy place to play and Oregon will be leaving the west for the only time this season. The Ducks will be a little out-of-context in this setting against a frothing road throng and a Nebraska team eager to get back to the national stage. The winner of this game will lend a lot of credence to their 2016 effort. I see the Oregon defense being a problem, with their high-powered offense getting them the competitive win and cover.
Loot's Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I'm betting on the Oregon Ducks plus 3 points. Tired of your credit card not working for sportsbook deposit? End that problem today by signing up at Bovada Sportsbook where your credit card WILL work and where you'll receive a generous 100% sign-up bonus!
