Oregon Ducks (8-0 SU, 7-1 ATS) vs. Stanford Cardinal (7-1 SU, 4-4 ATS)
College Football Week 11
Date/Time: Thursday, November 7, 2013 at 9:00PM EST
Where: Stanford Stadium, Stanford, California
TV: ESPN
By Loot, NCAA Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Point Spread: ORE -10/STAN +10
Over/Under Total: TBA
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On Thursday night, the Oregon Ducks will take on the Stanford Cardinal in a Pac-12 matchup of top-five teams with definite national championship ramifications. Oregon is sitting pretty at the number-three spot in the BCS standing and a win here would put them in a nice spot to get to the championship game. Stanford is 5th and a win over Oregon would have them right in the thick of things. Both teams are coming off a nearly two week break as they approach the game of the year.
It’s important to take note of last season’s result. At the same time, Oregon has 14 covers in their last 16 games--one a beating of Washington State that wasn’t as lopsided as forecasted. Their other non-cover was when the Cardinal beat them at home last season 17-14 in OT, with the Ducks being 18.5-point favorites. That’s a massive hot streak to be on and even though it speaks toward how well Stanford matches up with them, it’s hard to bet against a team that is so solid at the betting windows. 14 out of 16 is downright electric.
A lot of the same players from both teams played in last year’s Stanford upset. It’s important to look at whether Oregon had an off-game or if there is something specific about Stanford that just gives trouble to the Ducks. Last season, the Cardinal parlayed an efficient QB performance from Kevin Hogan, an explosive rushing performance by Stepfan Taylor, and a clutch showing by the defense to eke out a well-deserved win. Some of that is still in place, though Stepfan Taylor is gone. He has been replaced by a real player in RB Tyler Gaffney, who has 881 yards and 12 touchdowns on the ground.
A lot of the same things from 2012 are at play. Stanford is winning, but doing so in far quieter fashion. Meanwhile Oregon is torching everyone by even larger margins than are expected. And Stanford, though ranked fifth, did lose to Utah--just like last year when they beat Oregon after losing to Washington and Notre Dame. In the end--it all shakes out to what should be a big win for Oregon. But again--it’s how teams match up against each other. Looking at these teams as individual entities will always favor Oregon in a big way. but it is not a pose-down--it’s a football game
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It’s hard, though, to not be blown away by some of the individual Oregon performances this season. And that applies to both sides of the ball. With 20 touchdowns, zero picks, and over 500 yards on the ground with 9 touchdowns, Marcus Mariota is putting together a special year. RB Byron Marshall has 12 touchdowns and RB Thomas Tyner has 8. Bralon Addison and Josh Huff are a big 1-2 punch in the pass-catching crew. Burner DeAnthony Thomas is warming back up after a midseason injury setback. They are second in the nation in total yards, rushing yards, and points scored. It is a well-balanced offense, probably the best in the country. That could have been said last year, but they’re even better now. They have more viable big-time weaponry and Mariota has been virtually perfect.
Oregon’s defense has been giving up more points in recent weeks, but playing with such gargantuan leads, a little slacking off is to be expected. Even with the additional leakiness lately, they are still 7th in the nation in points allowed. The headspace the Ducks are expected to have should give way to a premier showing on both sides of the ball on Saturday. Stats aside, this is the game Oregon had circled on the schedule since spring camp. Oregon has beaten some tough teams, but the whole season has been window dressing to set up this game. It’s a revenge game of the highest order--against a conference opponent that last season denied them a shot to play for the BCS championship.
Stanford might be better, as well. And this year--they are at home. They have more to play for than last season, with a win giving them an inside track at the conference title. You have to watch out for teams like this. There are no stars on the team. They don’t really shine in any categories that normally earn teams a lot of attention. They’re just good in most areas and more clutch that their rankings would indicate. One major carryover from last year that is key for this game is Stanford’s stout run “D.” While Oregon is well-balanced and can do damage in a variety of ways, the combination of Stanford’s stoutness against the run and their ability to get key stops should give the Ducks problems again this year.
While Oregon has been ultra-impressive, they have almost had things too easy. That can be extra jarring when you finally run into some resistance. And against an ultra-pumped Stanford team at home, Oregon should have a game on its hands. But can the Cardinal can keep a lid on this Oregon offense for the second year in a row? Something tells me no.
Loot's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Take the Oregon Ducks minus 10 points.
