Oregon Ducks (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS) vs. Virginia Cavaliers (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS)
College Football Week 2
Date/Time: Saturday, September 7, 2013 at 3:30PM EST
Where: Scott Stadium, Charlottesville, Virginia
TV: ABC
By Loot, NCAA Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Point Spread: UO -23.5/VIR +23.5
Over/Under Total: 64
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The Oregon Ducks head far east to battle the Virginia Cavaliers in this first-ever meeting between two teams with a long history. It’s a strange matchup and maybe not the laugher that it might look like on paper. First year Oregon head coach Mark Helfrich had a good debut, with Oregon breaking their record for total yardage in a 66-3 flogging of Nichols State. Virginia had to settle for a 19-point output, but showed something in a gutsy win over BYU.
Not to overstate the case, but the Cavaliers did a really good job in their home opener. The offense was pedestrian at times, but the defense was pretty stout, holding BYU to 16 points and their quarterback Taysom Hill to 13 completions on 40 attempts. Held to a first half field goal, Virginia was able to grind their way to 16 second-half points to notch the win. QB David Watford wasn’t electric by any means, but he was dogged and steadfast, as were his crew of offensive weapons--RB Kevin Parks and WR Darius Jennings.
You look at the Virginia offense and think how in the world will they ever be able to hang with the high-flying act Oregon brings to the table? Fair enough, but we don’t need them to win, we just need them to cover the spread. This team is still rebuilding under head coach Paul London, but the coach now has all his guys in there, an experienced coaching staff around him, and a top recruiting class. All these things lend hope.
It was good to see Oregon is still Oregon against Nichols State on Saturday, but we already knew that. Entering the season as one of the top favorites to win the BCS, the third-ranked Ducks are the real deal--an explosive offense with a defense that is overshadowed a bit by the scoring machine on the other side of the ball. It’s understandable. The offense is one of the most dynamic seen in years. The running game has a cast of beasts who can all go wild, including De’Anthony Thomas. Any number of receivers litter the roster. And their quarterback, Marcus Mariota, is a handful--both in the pocket and with his legs. He was one of Oregon’s three 100-yard rushers against Nichols State.
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The Virginia defense may be stout, especially at home. It’s a grind on that field and it might not be the Oregon track meet we are accustomed to seeing. It’s just that this Oregon offense is on a different level. Will it be tamed by a long road trip and a pretty good Virginia defense? Is that really enough to take the fire out of Oregon’s unit? The point-spread says Virginia is going to get their butt kicked--that’s out the gate. We know that. But the spread also says that Virginia can sort of maintain, that they can either score some points or keep Oregon from running hog-wild up and down the field.
We also have to ask ourselves if Virginia’s offense is up to the task of covering this spread. After all, they put up 3 first-half points at home against BYU last week. They are now facing an even better defense and a similar first-half offensive performance against the Ducks would make covering this spread difficult. They’re going to have to score some points. To keep within distance of Oregon, you’d think they would need 3 or 4 touchdowns and it’s not clear that they’re up for that.
The attacking Virginia defense is tough. They disguise pressure well and stand to get a lot of turnovers this season. Defensive coordinator Jon Tenuta seems to have this unit in good shape. But it’s still a defense that is better-geared to handle the rigors of the ACC and middling non-conference opponents. Oregon is a different kettle of fish.
Using last year as a gauge is sometimes not the best idea, but with Oregon, a lot of the same pieces are in place. In 4 road games, they averaged 53 points and covered the spread each time and twice it wasn’t even close. And that point output came against good PAC-12 schools, not against ACC doormats. Oregon is not one of those offensive units that needs stars to line up perfectly to assume full-bloom. Home or away, against all different kinds of teams, they get the job done.
On one hand, you like to see a lot of evidence pour in on the behalf of one side prior to making a bet. But then we are forced to take pause and look between the lines. It’s never as easy as it looks. The boys setting the odds are not asleep at the wheel and it’s us, the betting public, who loses year after year at an alarming rate. So while the 23.5-point spread may seem congratulatory to Oregon, it’s based on sound reason. Oregon isn’t likely coming into this game in an ultra-urgent frame of mind, with Virginia unable to evoke that level of respect. Meanwhile, the Cavaliers have that loose mindset stemming from no one expecting them to win. For Oregon, it’s like “OK, let’s go beat up on Virginia.” For Virginia, it’s more about “Let’s make our bones and boost our program.” So, we can’t discount the teams’ mindsets coming into this game.
Loot's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Take the Oregon Ducks laying 23.5 points.
