Oregon Ducks (5-0 SU, 5-0 ATS) vs. Washington Huskies (4-1 SU, 4-1 ATS)
College Football Week 7
Date/Time: Saturday, October 12, 2013 at 4PM EST
Where: Husky Stadium, Seattle, Washington
TV: Fox Sports 1
By Loot, NCAA Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Point Spread: ORE -14/WASH +14
Over/Under Total: 70
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On Saturday, the 2nd-ranked Oregon Ducks face their toughest battle yet this season as they come into Seattle to face the Washington Huskies. Not only have the Ducks won each game, they’ve covered the spread in all 5 of their contests. The Huskies were undefeated, before narrowly losing to Stanford on Saturday, 31-28.
The U of O Ducks are facing a potentially competitive game for the first time this season. Up until now, it’s been a matter of how badly Oregon will beat their outmanned opponents. They’ve been averaging nearly 60 points per game and their long-underrated defense has allowed them to cover all their spreads. But UW is cut from a different cloth. Whereas Oregon has been facing teams in rebuilding mode or teams that are simply bad, Washington is legit contender in the Pac-12. After beating teams like Virginia, Tennessee, Cal, and Colorado by 40-50 points, Oregon should look for stiffer resistance on Saturday.
Even so, it’s difficult to overstate the offensive firepower that lies with the Quack Attack. Everyone knew they would be powerful. They are a high-ranked team that is not catching anyone by surprise, yet they still managed to surpass expectations in all their games this season. QB Marcus Mariota is beginning to forge a Heisman case, with 14 touchdowns and zero interceptions in the air, in addition to 7 rushing touchdowns. RB De’Anthony Thomas, out for the Colorado game with an injured right ankle, is questionable for Saturday. But one thing they don’t lack is playmakers on offense. Having a healthy Thomas would give them a boost, make no mistake, but there are always a bevy of other speedsters itching to do their thing. Senior receiver Josh Huff is stepping up this season, as is sophomore RB Byron Marshall (448 yards). A very scary stat is that Oregon is second in the nation in points scored and points allowed. So far, their run game is pretty much unstoppable. It’s just so difficult to contain with all the different threats and if defenses key in too hard on the run, Mariota can light them up in the pass game.
This has long been identified as the part of the season where U-Dub would be able to prove their worth--with consecutive games against the undisputed kings of the Pac-12. Step one against Stanford was promising, though it was a loss. Stanford held the upper hand for the whole game, just enough to cross the finishing line with their nose ahead. Now step two comes at home. Having come so close against the same team that beat UO last year should have them in a confident frame-of-mind on Saturday.
Coach Sarkisian has slowly built this program up after a rough run and fall from grace. He has a lot of talent on both sides of the ball this season. It’s good to see QB Keith Price developing the way he is. Last season saw Price take a step back after a big 2011. This year, he looks to be in excellent form, with 71.3% completions. He went for 350 yards against a good Stanford home “D.” RB Bishop Sankey has quietly worked himself into one of the best running backs on the west coast in the past few seasons. He already has 732 yards and 8 touchdowns. And with Kevin Smith, Kasen Williams, Jaydon Mickens, and TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins, they have a ton of tools to work with in the passing game. The offense is better this season for Washington--the line has stepped it up a notch and skill guys are coming into their own.
The Dawgs are a team that is coming into their own. They don’t have the team talent that Oregon has (who does?), but they have come together as a team. Returning talent on both sides of the ball has developed. A few key pieces on both sides of the line of scrimmage have returned from injury. Their quarterback seems to be on his way to realizing his potential and is working with a good RB-WR-TE package. The defense, an experienced unit, is allowing only 14.8 points per game. The “D” has been particularly strong against the pass, ranking third in the nation with only 146 yards allowed in the air per game. Stanford’s Kevin Hogan only had 100 yards in the air on Saturday against this unit.
The point spread is a robust 14. First instinct: it’s a little high for Oregon. Upon further reflection, however, it’s entirely conceivable. Oregon is beating up on teams and in light of what is supposed to be their first real test, they should be even more on-point mentally. Last year’s game was a 31-point slaying in the Ducks’ favor, but both teams are better this season, especially Washington. You can’t just keep pounding Oregon and hope their offense keeps covering spreads. Going for a 6th straight cover to open the season is asking for a lot, though if any team is up for it--it would be Oregon. Look for Washington to be just tough enough to cover the number.
Loot's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Take the Washington Huskies and 14 points.