Oregon State Beavers (6-6 SU, 6-6 ATS) vs. Boise State Broncos (8-4 SU, 6-6 ATS)
Sheraton Hawaii Bowl
Date/Time: Tuesday, December 24, 2013 at 8PM EST
Where: Aloha Stadium, Honolulu, Hawaii
TV: ESPN
By Loot, NCAA Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Point Spread: OSU -2.5/BSU +2.5
Over/Under Total: 64
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In the Sheraton Hawaii Bowl, the Oregon State Beavers take on the Boise State Broncos at Aloha Stadium in Honolulu on Christmas Eve. Oregon State is exciting and has the 3rd-ranked pass-attack in all of college football. But after a 6-game winning streak, the Beavers slumped to the finish line on the heels of 5 straight defeats. While this is not one of the more vintage Boise State teams of recent memory, they at least won 6 of their last 8 games and come into this game with a little more positive inertia.
The Beavers have been up-and-down all season. They opened with a loss to FCS opponent Eastern Washington. They started winning, but weren’t covering and seemed to be habitually under-performing. They got on a roll and after 6 straight wins with QB Sean Mannion in explosive form, things were looking up. Then, boom, 5 straight losses. Loss number 4, a home defeat to Washington, 69-27, was particularly awful. In their last game on November 29, they did manage to nearly beat Oregon on the road, when a Ducks final minute-touchdown drive earned them a close 36-35 win. It at least showed the Beavers haven’t completely rolled over spiritually. Some similar sentiment will be required against a plucky Boise State team.
Is there anything more gross in all of sports than the timetable and practice of college coaching hires? Longtime Boise coach Chris Petersen, tabbed as Washington’s new head coach, will not be on the sidelines for this game, despite this being the program he helped bring into the national spotlight. Linebackers coach Bob Gregory will fill in on an interim basis for this game.
Boise State had a lot of issues this season, including losing their starting quarterback for the season in Joe Southwick. Grant Hedrick has been excellent in relief, with the Broncos going with the pistol formation later in the season, to good effect. With 15 touchdowns against 5 picks and a completion percentage of nearly 70%, Hedrick was mostly dependable. He was decidedly average in losses against San Diego State and BYU, but not bad for a guy seeing his first real playing time as a Bronco. With 6 touchdowns on the ground in half a season, the young man can scoot, as well. Also chipping in with run-production is Jay Ajayi, with 1328 yards and 17 touchdowns. That’s bad news for an Oregon State team that has been giving up an average of almost 200 yards per game on the ground. Hedrick also works with a deep receiver package, featuring dependable Matt Miller (77 catches), Shane Williams-Rhodes (77 catches), and a big target in 6’4” Geraldo Boldewijn.
BET ON GAMES AT ONLY -105 ODDS AT 5DIMES
Oregon State obviously has some weapons of their own. QB Sean Mannion was second only to Derek Carr in the nation in passing. WR Brandin Cooks led the nation in receiving with 120 catches, 1670 yards, and 15 touchdowns. All told, 8 different Oregon State receivers have at least 19 catches. But alas, the running-game is one of the absolute worst in all of college football and has been getting worse and worse, even though they did well against Oregon. The type of one dimensional offense the Beavers bring to the table hasn’t been getting it done, with only 105 points scored in their last 5 games--not exactly the high-flying offense we saw in the first half of the season. In the five games leading up to this recent 5-game slide, they had scored 230 points. This offense has been struggling. Boise State’s defense isn’t top-notch, but it hasn’t been taking shutdown units to keep a lid on Oregon State lately. They just seem to have settled into a funk.
The Beavers were able to get things rolling a little better against the Ducks. But to some extent, that is to be expected when even a struggling team faces an in-state rival in an annual game. They had a chance to lend some value to a season that had gone down the toilet and came out with a lot of energy. But Oregon was not the same Oregon we had seen earlier in the year and the Beavers playing them close is not a dependable sign of a late-turnaround. At the end of the day, their defense couldn’t keep Oregon out of the end zone late, as Oregon scored the winning touchdown with 29 seconds left, after Oregon State had gone ahead with 1:38 left with their own go-ahead touchdown. Their performance was a good sign, but was just another deflating loss at the end of the day.
Boise State not having their coach could be a problem from a leadership and game-planning point-of-view. They still have greater balance overall as a team and carry far better momentum into this game. This could be a shootout where anything can happen, but I’m leaning toward Boise State to cover the spread and possibly win this game.
Loot's Pick to Cover the Sheraton Hawaii Bowl Point Spread: I’m taking the Boise State Broncos plus 2.5 points.
