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Oregon State Beavers vs. Minnesota Golden Gophers Point Spread - Pick

Oregon State Beavers (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS) vs. Minnesota Golden Gophers (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS)
College Football Week 1
Date/Time: Thursday, September 1, 2016 at 9PM EST
Where: TCF Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, Minnesota
TV: Big Ten Network

By Loot, NCAA Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com

Point Spread: OSU +12/MIN -12
Over/Under Total: 51

On Thursday September 1, the opening week of the college football season offers an interesting Pac-12 vs. Big Ten battle, as the Oregon State Beavers come into Minneapolis to face the Minnesota Golden Gophers. In 2015, Minnesota was a lukewarm 6-7 and look for something better this season. Oregon State was a miserable 2-10 in 2015, losing their last nine games. Head coach Gary Andersen looks to put some wind into the Oregon St. sails after a ragged '15 campaign.

There always seems to be some silver lining when a team suffers and there might be a legitimate flip-side to Oregon State's miseries last season. They were working in a new system under a first-year coach who followed the long tenure of Mike Riley. Injuries, an over-abundance of youth, and a dearth of leadership contributed mightily to the Beavers' woes. At times, it got ugly, with a long losing streak opening the season, as they gave up 40 or more points 7 times in that stretch. Their run-game was so-so, but maybe that's just in relation to every other aspect of the game, in which they were simply putrid.

The Beavers' offense seems headed in the right direction with Utah State transfer Darell Garretson taking over the quarterback duties. As an Aggie, he showed a lot of moxie and was able to get that offense moving more often than not. Look for him to benefit greatly from a blossoming receiver package consisting of Jordan Villamin and Victor Bolden. Even starting QB from last season, Seth Collins, has been making strides at receiver in practice. In addition to those receivers is a burgeoning package of youth behind them. A major concern would be the run game, with not many impactful returners from the backfield in the fold.

Still, one should look for Garretson's ability to stretch the field to open up the offense some. The new Beavs QB will be working with offensive coordinator Kevin McGiven, who held the same spot at Utah State while Garretson was their quarterback. Even Chuckie Keeton, the star Utah State QB while Garretson was there, is in the fold at Oregon State too. Garretson should connect nicely with this aerial package. If he can get some support from a line that was battered by injuries last season, that picture would appear even rosier. And with guard Gavin Andrews back from injury and BYU transfer Brayden Kearsley combining with G Fred Lauina, T Sean Harlow, and T Dustin Stanton, it should be a good front. Look for the grit of Garretson to galvanize the offense, with a better line giving this offense a much-needed identity.

Minnesota would like to see some pieces fall into place offensively with Mitch Leidner behind center. He has been up-and-down in his career, but showed some spirit playing hurt last season and maybe he can put it together for one good run. He didn't get a lot of work in spring practice, with freshman Seth Green looking like the heir-apparent. This will be his 30th start. He is robust, finally healthy, and looks to make the most of a so-so group around him.

The Golden Gophers run-game in 2015 was lukewarm, but heavily dependent on freshmen Shannon Brooks and Rodney Smith, who should benefit from a full season of experience. Again, the Golden Gophers feature a receiving package that seems to lack a true vertical threat other than maybe Will Reger, as guys like Drew Walitarsky, Eric Carter, and TE Brandon Lingen will need to be a lot better to give this offense teeth. Luckily for Leidner, the line had decent depth to absorb the departure of three starters. C Tyler Moore and T Jonah Pirsig form a nice foundation that will be filled out by some key reserves from last season and maybe even a Juco transfer or two. It's a front that should grow in stature as the season progresses.

Neither team really thrives in a defensive sense, barring some unforeseen development. Minnesota returns 7 guys, but let's just say they're not the 7 guys the coaches would have picked to remain. On the line, answers will need to be provided across several different fronts for the Golden Gophers, as this looks to be a team liability. The middle is at least experienced, though occupied by non-difference makers who could get better with a year under their belts. They look decent at safety with Duke McGhee, Adekunle Ayinde, and Damarius Travis back from injury, but they lost a lot in this area too. There will simply be too many untested green players asked to fill too many voids for this defense to not at least take a small step back.

Oregon State's defense was even worse in 2015, with problems-galore. It was basically a ragtag bunch and they're hoping those knocks resonate into some battle-tempered experience this season, as a lot of youngsters were able to get on the field. The front seven is still very young, yet talented, and could get better. Juco transfer Phillip Napoleon will need to come up with some element of a pass-rush and they're counting on NT Kalani Vakameilalo to be a run-stopping force in the middle. They're not bad in the middle with a nice group of ballplayers, but there is no depth or real difference-makers, either. The secondary is a deep group, but again, the playmaking element will need to come from an unidentified source.

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At the same time, a few things could work out for Oregon State to get them in a position to at least win some games this season after a winless Pac-12 campaign in 2015. Just having Andersen being in his second year should resonate in some kind of palpable way. There seems to be some pep on offense with Garretson, who could bring something out of his supporting cast that his predecessors were unable to do. And he does have some viable targets in Villamin and Bolden with a line that should be okay. Minnesota, meanwhile, seems less-poised for an upsurge, thought their starting point was higher on the food chain. There's still something about Leidner that is hard to get the blood pumping and the Minnesota "D" looks to be a group that this Beavers' group can get some business done against, even on the road in a place that isn't easy to play. I'm going to project a little on Oregon State that they'll improve a smidge more than what is being generally forecasted. If they do, I like them to cover this number on opening week.

Loot's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I'm betting on Oregon State plus 12 points. Did you know... that you could be wagering on games at discounted odds? There's a better than good chance that you're laying -110 odds (or more) with your book. Stop overpaying TODAY by making the switch to 5Dimes Sportsbook! You will be so glad that you did!

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