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Rutgers Scarlet Knights vs. Ohio State Buckeyes Point Spread - Pick

Rutgers Scarlet Knights (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS) vs. Ohio State Buckeyes (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS)
College Football Week 5
Date/Time: Saturday, October 1, 2016 at 12PM EST
Where: Ohio Stadium, Columbus, Ohio
TV: ABC

By Loot, NCAA Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com

Betting Odds: RUT +38.5/OSU -38.5
Over/Under Total: 59

The Rutgers Scarlet Knights come into Columbus on Saturday to face the Ohio State Buckeyes in Big Ten action. It's Ohio State's conference opener, while Rutgers opened their Big Ten schedule last week. The Buckeyes had a week off in week three, as if they needed any other advantages against the visiting Scarlet Knights. After routine wins over Bowling Green and Tulsa to open the season, the Buckeyes handled Oklahoma in week three, 45-24, in Norman. They've covered the spread in all three of their games by a combined 76 points! It looks like the Buckeyes mean business this season. Rutgers has gotten out to a 2-2 start and though they lost on Saturday to Iowa, they covered the spread and forced defending Big Ten West Division champion Iowa to push hard for the 14-7 win.

The Buckeyes have a revamped offense and defense with a ton of guys departing from last season's starting units. It doesn't really seem to matter with the level of talent Urban Meyer gets year in and year out. As they say, it's more of a "reload" than a "rebuild." The offense has been doing its job and put the game away pretty quickly against Oklahoma in their last game. JT Barrett has ten TD throws and one pick on the young season. Previously anonymous receiver Noah Brown hauled in four TD passes against the Sooners. They piled on nearly 300 yards rushing on the road in Norman, with Mike Weber accounting for 123 of them, while Curtis Samuel had 93 and a TD. Barrett also added 74 yards with his legs. We're seeing this Ohio St, team score in every way possible—aerial scores, rushing touchdowns, returns, and defensive touchdowns. Points can really come from any angle and at any time with this Ohio St. bunch.

The Ohio State defense has passed every test this season thus far. They gave up 13 points in their first two games, with a garbage BGSU touchdown the only TD they relinquished. They've given up three touchdowns the whole season, while scoring five of their own touchdowns on defense. They haven't even needed the offense yet! Holding Bowling Green and Tulsa to almost nothing is nice, but giving up just 17 points to the Oklahoma offense, with one of those scores coming in garbage time, is a solid accomplishment. Granted, they lost a ton over the offseason and were expected to maybe take a small step back. But it hasn't been evident yet and it likely won't come to light against Rutgers.

With all the different faces on the team, it's hard to relate last season's result into the mix, but Ohio State did manage a 49-7 drubbing over the Scarlet Knights, with Rutgers scoring in the final seconds to avoid the shutout. The previous season, they won 56-17. So recent history suggests a beating will ensue. The Buckeyes will be at home as they open their conference schedule against Rutgers and then Indiana, before hitting the road for some tough Big Ten games.

For what it's worth, Ohio State was only 1-6 last season as a home dog. Is there a chance we're overrating Ohio State based on wins over Bowling Green, Tulsa, and an Oklahoma team that has turned out to be a fraction of what was anticipated this season? But even if that's true, what can Rutgers do about it? Well, they can maybe provide a scrappier road test to the Buckeyes than what is forecasted. They'll have to do better than their season-opener, when they were ripped up by Washington, 48-13. With a big number this week and more in their element, perhaps they can catch an Ohio State team looking past them after beating them so lopsidedly the last few times they played.

Rutgers played pretty well on Saturday by their standards, showing they may be a threat to conference teams other than fellow bottom-feeders. Against the Hawkeyes, they tied it at 7-all in the 4th quarter before a turnover deep in their own territory led to another Iowa score. Until then, the Rutgers defense has been pretty good in keeping Iowa in check. They were really a play or two away from a completely different result, with the turnover and a few drives dying on downs being the telling moments. Still, this was something that Rutgers can build on, as they try to gain some foothold in a conference that they've struggled massively in for the last two-plus years.

Rutgers QB Chris Laviano did the best he could against an Iowa team known for defense. They just couldn't get over the hump despite showing promise, Case in point was after Scarlets Knight receiver Janarion Grant ran loose for a 76-yarder that put Rutgers first and goal on the Hawkeyes' three-yard line. They were stopped on downs and that was it. And after Grant had the big play, he was knocked out the game and it turns out he is lost for the season. Rutgers is in no position to lose their best weapon and it naturally affected the offense. On the ground, Robert Martin ran for 106 yards and Justin Goodwin gained 74 yards. Andre Patton caught the lone Rutgers TD.

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The Rutgers defense played their best game of the season against Iowa and a similar or even better performance could go a long way toward covering the number this week against the Buckeyes. This is a group with a lot of experience and after a first couple brutal years in the Big Ten, they are starting to look like they belong on this side of the ball. If they could get some help from the offense, it would go a long way. We'll see how they fare against a really good offense this week. It's one thing to look good at home against Iowa. In Columbus, that might not mean a whole lot.

Rutgers does have a scrappy look this season. At the same time, losing their best offensive weapon from a group that isn't that good to begin with could make this a tough task. You almost have to wonder if the Ohio State defense won't outscore the Rutgers offense in this one. Not having their top playmaker Janarion Grant is also a big hit to an offense that couldn't afford such a setback. I see Ohio State laying it on thick.

Loot's Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I'm betting on the Ohio State Buckeyes minus 38,5 points. Tired of your credit card not working for sportsbook deposit? End that problem today by signing up and betting the Scarlet Knights vs. Buckeyes game from home at Bovada Sportsbook where your credit card WILL work and where you'll receive a generous 100% sign-up bonus!

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