Rutgers Scarlet Knights (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS) vs. Washington Huskies (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS)
College Football Week 1
Date/Time: Saturday, September 3, 2016 at 2PM EST
Where: Husky Stadium, Seattle, Washington
TV: Pac-12 Network
By Loot, NCAA Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Point Spread: RUTG +26.5/WASH -26.5
Over/Under Total: 55
Opening Saturday in the 2016 college football season features a Big Ten versus Pac-12 matchup, with the Rutgers Scarlet Knights coming into Seattle to face the Washington Huskies. Rutgers faces a tough and faraway road game to open their season, coming off a campaign where they won four games, beat only one conference team, and lost 5 of their last 6 games. They look to get the season off on a positive note against a Huskies team that is projected to make a surge from their 7-6 season in 2015. That opening line of Washington minus 26.5 points is pretty steep. Let's see if we can make sense of it and come up with a good pick.
Washington isn't the only team entering 2016 with some well-placed optimism. Rutgers is hoping growing pains from 2015 manifests into battle-hardened power this season. A lot of people return with more experience across all areas and it should pay off to some extent. Washington is in the same boat to some extent, with a lot of key pieces returning. Solid recruiting and the fact that Chris Petersen is in his third season should resonate. Remember what he did with Boise State. Expecting Washington to forever remain a mid-pack Pac-12 team could be a miscalculation.
The Huskies are banking on the development of quarterback Jake Browning. His range was all over the spectrum in 2015 and they look for him to steady the ship a bit in 2016. His talent suggests a possible surge this season. He can lean on one of the top backs in the Pac-12 with Myles Gaskin, who ran for over 1300 yards and 14 touchdowns last season. While Browning was inconsistent, Gaskin's performances were pretty steady, as he was a very dependable performer. Freshman Sean McGrew looks to get some touches and could make an impact this year.
The Huskies' aerial attack looks forward to the return of difference-maker John Ross, who missed all of last season. His return should make a humdrum group from last season better, with Dante Pettis, Brayden Lewis, and TE Darrell Daniels looking to improve. What would really make it come together better is if the front can offer better pass-protection to their young quarterback. But guys like C Coleman Shelton, T Trey Adams, T Kaleb McGary, G Jake Eldrenkamp, and G Jeff Sosebee were young and inexperienced last season and were able to provide mostly-capable play. How well they develop this season will prove to be key.
Eight starters return to Washington's "D." The line was productive last season, but loses the pass-rushing prowess of Travis Freeney. Guys like Connor O'Brien. Joe Mathis, and Psalm Wooching need to step it up, while DE Elijah Qualls fulfilling his star potential could give this group the boost they need. The middle is strong, with Azeem Victor and Keishawn Bierria all over the field making plays. The "D" should also get a boost from two instrumental corners in Sidney Jones and Darren Gardenhire. Safety Budda Baker and a lot of youngsters are vying for the safety spots and make this a team strength.
Rutgers is rolling with Chris Ash as head coach, who looks to bring some of that winning formula from Ohio State where he was one of Urban Meyer's top assistants. It looks like he will either be going with incumbent starter Chris Laviano or TCU transfer Zach Allen. It should come down to the wire with Ash going with his best fit. Last season, Allen played receiver at TCU so we'll see if the rust-factor costs him in the QB battle.
Locating an impact-making back would also go a long way toward getting Rutgers on the map in the Big Ten. Josh Hicks and Robert Martin could get better with experience, but neither has been a difference-maker yet. Losing Leonte Carroo hurts the aerial attack and leaves them without a standout playmaker, but a solid group remains with guys like Andre Patton, Carlton Agudosi, and tight end Matt Flanagan. Four starters return from a group that tried hard but couldn't turn the corner in 2015. It's not crazy to project that they'll be better.
The field being littered with freshmen, both true and redshirt, cost the Scarlet Knights last season. They gave up an average of 35 points per game, but those were lumps that they had to take with such an over-abundance of youth. Look for fewer mistakes this season from a more-experienced group. The line will be tested bigtime in game one, but they have a good run-stuffing component returning from injury in DT Darius Hamilton, who also rushes the passer well. DE Quanzell Lambert also offers some upside on the edge. At linebacker, they have a lot of talented pieces, but until something congeals, that could be a problem area, particularly if the line doesn't deliver as expected. And the secondary won't be worse than they were after a ragged 2015. They have a nice playmaking safety in Anthony Cioffi and a rising commodity at corner in Isaiah Wharton. They need to find another corner to put into the mix. The thin linebacker unit, however, remains a pretty sore thumb in this equation.
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Washington's improvement is being talked about more than the potential Rutgers surge that could take place in 2016. And rightfully so, as Washington is a team that can go places, while Rutgers is just hoping to notch a few conference wins and somehow become bowl-eligible. In the first game of a season, the typical high-effort Rutgers spirit can really resonate. They're not beaten down yet. There is still optimism on that sideline, misplaced or not. That should result in four quarters of hard play, which could make it hard for Washington to cover such a big number. You might be waiting for years before you see Washington that big of a favorite again over a Big Ten opponent.
With Rutgers, it's not hard to sense a little boost with the head coaching change and the growing experience of youthful talent. Even if you think Washington will be better this season, this is still a team that was pretty so-so last season and some of those positive projections might fall short. They're just a little unproven in this role as such a huge favorite over a team that isn't really that terrible. I'm taking the 26.5 points and the Scarlet Knights.
Loot's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I'm betting on the Rutgers Scarlet Knights plus 26.5 points. Tired of your credit card not working for sportsbook deposit? End that problem today by signing up at Bovada Sportsbook where your credit card WILL work and where you'll receive a generous 50% sign-up bonus!