SMU Mustangs (1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS) vs. Texas A&M Aggies (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS)
College Football Week 4
Date/Time: Saturday, September 21, 2013 at 7PM EST
Where: Kyle Field in College Station, Texas
TV: ESPN U
By Loot, NCAA Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Point Spread: Southern Methodist University +28.5/Tex. A&M -28.5
Over/Under Total: 79
Bet your Mustangs/Aggies pick using your credit card at an online betting site where it WILL work for deposits and where you'll receive a free $100 bet after making a $100 or more deposit and placing a bet of $100 or more! --> Sportsbook..
On Saturday, the Texas A&M Aggies host the SMU Mustangs, looking to bounce back from tough loss to Alabama. The Mustangs, meanwhile, are 1-1 and coming off a two-week break. They will be looking to do better than last season, when they lost to the Aggies 48-3, with Johnny Manziel having 6 touchdowns.
It was disheartening to lose to Alabama on Saturday, but the Aggies showed a lot of guts and character. They got out to a quick 14-0 lead, before watching Alabama put up 35 unanswered points by the third quarter. Usually, when that happens to a team, they get highly dispirited after having a lead and then getting smashed. But Manziel and the rest of the A&M squad sucked it up to make it 49-42 and giving Alabama a real sweat.
Manziel, who really has a ton of moxie, ended up throwing for 464 yards and 5 touchdowns--against a two-time defending champion team. He even ran for 98 yards and was by far the most compelling player on the field. Not to demand perfection from Manziel, but his two interceptions probably made the difference. One was run back for a touchdown, with the other coming in the end zone as Manziel hoped to get a touchdown. Still, Manziel was excellent. You have to wonder, however, if there won’t be some letdown this week against a foe unlikely to command much respect. They really left it all on the field against Alabama and will have to cover a really big number against SMU.
The Mustangs are a hard team to not at least passively root for. They got hammered with a heavy-handed death sentence years ago, which destroyed a once prestigious SMU football program. June Jones, the former NFL head coach, seems interested in turning around smaller programs at this stage of his career. After a nice 9-year run at Hawaii, he is now in his 6th year at SMU. It hasn’t been easy, but he took a team that hadn’t been to a bowl game in a quarter-century and now has SMU on the heels of 4 straight bowl appearances, with 3 wins. You really have to hand it to June Jones and his players.
QB Garrett Gilbert, son of former NFL backup quarterback Gale, has a lot of experience and has been a focal part of the Mustangs during their resurgence. He’s completing passes at a nearly 70% clip with 715 yards in just two games. They were a little disappointing in week one, losing to Texas Tech and not coming close to covering the spread. In week two, they upended Montana St. 31-30, relying on a late touchdown pass from Gilbert to Darius Joseph. That’s an alarming result, but we’ve been seeing a lot of FCS teams over-performing for the last few years, so maybe it was just one of those things. Just going off the results, however, it doesn’t look like SMU is very good at all. Looks can be deceiving.
MORE BONUSES! DEPOSIT $500 AND GET $500 FREE AT GTBETS!
SMU can move the ball with their 5th-year senior quarterback and a nice receiving crew that has 4 guys already in double-digits in receptions, including Jeremy Johnson (19 catches) and Joseph (23 catches). Their running game is negligible, but Gilbert has already run for 82 yards and a touchdown. The obvious concern is how the SMU defense will do against A&M. Unless A&M really phones this one in, the Mustangs’ defense is probably going to get smashed. The question is whether this Mustangs’ offense can score more than 3 points, as they did last season. Seeing how the A&M defense has allowed 31 to Rice and 28 to Sam Houston State this year, it seems like a distinct possibility.
The A&M defense was run ragged on Saturday. They know they can depend on their offense to put up crazy points, so expect SMU to surpass their 3-point total of 2012. With the spread of 28.5, all it takes is 3 SMU touchdowns to mean that A&M will need to score 50. If SMU can score as much as Rice and Sam Houston State, which is entirely possible, the Aggies will need to put up a boatload of points. They’re not going to come into this game looking to coast, but will they have enough fire to cover a big number in the event SMU is able to score some points?
Look for Manziel to be trying to emphatically air out the stink of a loss last week by going all-out against the Mustangs. Still, June Jones and company should be loose for this matchup, being that no one expects them to win. That could be a good thing and an SMU offense not feeling the pressure could have a decent game. This is a toughie.
Loot's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Take SMU getting 28.5 points.
