Stanford Cardinal (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS) vs. UCLA Bruins (2-1 SU, 0-3 ATS)
College Football Week 4
Date/Time: Saturday, September 24, 2016 at 8PM EST
Where: Rose Bowl, Pasadena, California
TV: ABC
By Loot, NCAA Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Betting Odds: STAN -3/UCLA -3
Over/Under Total: 48
The Stanford Cardinal come to the Rose Bowl to face the UCLA Bruins in key week four action. Stanford had a week off following their week one win over Kansas State, before coming back in week three to score a dominant 27-10 home win over the USC Trojans. They look for the LA sweep this week on the road against a UCLA game that scored a nice road win at BYU in week three, 17-14. The Bruins are now 2-1, with two straight wins following a tough OT road loss to Texas A&M in week one.
The Cardinal have won twice and covered each game in a decent start to the 2016 season. After the departure of Kevin Hogan, they are now with a new QB in Ryan Burns. It just seemed like Hogan was there for almost a decade. In two games, Burns has been a bit lukewarm, with just 265 yards passing in two games. But as one would imagine with a new starter, he's relying on Heisman frontrunner RB Christian McCaffrey. It paid off on Saturday, with McCaffrey running for 165 yards on 30 carries, while adding a 56-yard TD reception. Against a talented Southern Cal secondary, they ran the ball to good affect with WR Michael Rector even running in a 56-yard reverse in for a touchdown.
The equation for Stanford is a heavy dose of McCaffrey, but how far they go might depend on how well they can diversify their output. They are not going to be able to just shove McCaffrey down everyone's throat en route to a huge season. Burns will need to produce something through the air, as he has talented receivers like Rector and others to lean on in the aerial game. Through two games, it's been a bit one-dimensional and that might not work for much longer. But even when just running the ball, there can be some trickery, as they showed with a bunch of up-the-middle running, followed with a sudden reverse on the edges with Rector. They can give you some different looks.
It was suspected that the Stanford defense would be better this season with a lot of returning talent and nothing through two games has disproven that. Against a dynamic KSU offense in week one, they gave up a paltry 13 points. Against USC, they were even better, holding the Trojans to just ten points. They held the Trojans to 4-for-12 on third down conversions and took key receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster out of the game, while not allowing the run-game to establish any momentum. It's an experienced group that has been pretty stingy through 2 games.
As conference rivals, these teams know each other well. Last season's game went Stanford's way, 56-35. UCLA out-gained Stanford, but a few key turnovers, including a Stanford pick-six were critical. But McCaffrey was the real key, running wild with 243 yards and 4 touchdowns, with a few big returns to boot. Rosen was also pretty good, going over 300 yards, but the mistakes were the main difference. UCLA will need to show they can stop the run this week, as McCaffrey having another game like last season would be tough for UCLA to overcome. This begins a rough stretch for Stanford, with back-to-back road games at UCLA and Washington.
UCLA escaped Provo with the close win over BYU on Saturday, a key win to put more distance between them and their week one loss. Against A&M, they mounted a great comeback before coming up short in overtime in painful fashion. They followed that with a routine week two win over UNLV. But by beating a quality BYU team on the road in a grinding sort of game, UCLA showed a lot. The BYU defense gave UCLA all kinds of problems and the 17 points were hard-earned. But the UCLA "D" was able to play a solid game and hold off BYU at the end.
The UCLA defense was supposed to be a real team strength and that was evident for the first time against BYU. Granted, the Cougars are in an offensive funk. But with the UCLA offense struggling, the Bruins "D" bridged the gap, able to render the BYU ground-game into dogmeat with 25 yards. They held Taysom Hill to very little until the end of the game when BYU went on a little spurt after trailing 17-0, with an onside kick at the end that failed. They held a good Texas A&M offense to very little in the second half and after holding BYU to just a little, they're a group on the way up. With Eddie Vanderdoes on the line making an impact with corner Randall Goforth making plays, and a bunch of other talented guys, they are forming an identity on this side of the ball. Against BYU, the pass-rush was in full-flight—a great development for this "D."
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Josh Rosen was over 300 yards on Saturday, even though the BYU defense was adept at keeping them from establishing much of a foothold. They were kept off the board for the final quarter and a half. It was nice to see Nate Starks back in the mix at running back, but the Bruins' ground-game was not up-to-snuff again on Saturday, with Soso Jamabo injured. Receiver Darren Andrews had 4 catches for 91 yards and a TD reception. A dozen different receivers caught balls from Rosen on Saturday. The offense hasn't been as prolific as some thought it would be. They lost a lot from last season and maybe they need time to come around. After the first three games, this is a time where some could prematurely underrate the UCLA offense, but they could very easily get things rolling here soon.
There is a big gap in QB play in this game, with the NFL prospect Rosen against a wet-behind-the-ears Stanford quarterback who is putting up Pop Warner numbers through 2 games. But McCaffrey is the X-factor, with how the UCLA defense will perform being the question of the day. They look better this season, but they haven't faced a difference-maker like McCaffrey, who had a field day against this team last season. But if UCLA could only manage 17 against BYU, how much can they expect against the Stanford "D?" I see a good game at the Rose Bowl, with Stanford getting the win and cover in a big road win.
Loot's Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I'm betting on the Stanford Cardinal minus 3 points. Did you know... that you could be wagering on the Stanford vs. UCLA game at discounted odds? There's a better than good chance that you're laying -110 odds (or more) with your book. Stop overpaying TODAY by making the switch to 5Dimes Sportsbook! You will be so glad that you did!
