TCU Horned Frogs (1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS) vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS)
College Football Week 3
Date/Time: Thursday, September 12, 2013 at 7:30PM EST
Where: Jones AT&T Stadium, Lubbock, Texas
TV: ESPN
By Loot, NCAA Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Point Spread: Texas Christian -3.5/Tex. Tech +3.5
Over/Under Total: 64
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The TCU Horned Frogs make the short trip to Lubbock to take on the Texas Tech Red Raiders in this Thursday Big 12 matchup. TCU had the misfortune of running into a good LSU team in their season opener, which they dropped by ten points. They got into the win column last Saturday in a victory over Southeastern Louisiana, but they lost QB Casey Pachall with a fractured arm. That will hurt facing this Texas Tech squad, which has cruised in its first two games of the season.
While Pachall didn’t hurt his throwing arm, the fracture will result in missed time--apparently 8 weeks. It’s a tough thing to go through for a young man who battled to get back to this spot. And it’s bad for TCU, with Pachall being the man who was the field general who was largely responsible for the best recent moments for the Horned Frogs. Pachall led TCU to a 11-win season in 2011 and threw for almost 500 yards in an upset over Boise State that same year. They’re not the same team without him.
That’s not meant as a dig on Trevone Boykin, who filled in admirably when Pachall was suspended last season and who again came in this past weekend when Pachall went down with the injury. It’s just that TCU doesn’t have the same zip without Pachall. They lack the same effervescence. Those kinds of things don’t do them any good having to face a pretty good Texas Tech team on Saturday. At the same time, the sophomore has the right to improve and does have some big-time starting experience under his belt. Going off of last year might not be completely fair to the young man.
Whereas there in now concern in the TCU locker-room, Texas Tech looks to have some fresh air pumped into the program, especially with the play of walk-on Baker Mayfield, who has taken this team by storm. First, he won a heated quarterback battle and then hit the ground running in his first two college football appearances. So far, he has thrown for 780 yards on over 70% completions with 7 touchdowns and no interceptions. He has even run for 82 yards and a touchdown. But before we get carried away, let’s remember it gets tougher for the burgeoning young quarterback. Having success against a porous SMU defense and Stephen F. Austin is a good sign, but no guarantee that he will pick apart the better Big 12 defenses.
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We should only hope to see as good a game as we witnessed last season, when Texas Tech beat TCU 56-53 in a triple-overtime barnburner. A lot of things are different now in terms of personnel, but Boykin had a pretty good game for TCU, with 332 yards. It still remains to be seen how good this Texas Tech defense will be this season. The real question might be how Mayfield and his tools will perform against a TCU defense that led the Big 12 in their inaugural season last year in total defense and returns 9 starters from that unit. Mayfield has yet to see the likes of of guys like DE Devonte Fields and a robust linebacking crew with Marcus Mallet, Paul Dawson, and Jonathan Anderson.
It’s interesting that TCU, without Pachall is still a 3-4 point road favorite against the Red Raiders. While Tech is 2-0 with a pair of covers, their opponents were subpar while TCU is battle-tempered having faced LSU. But not having Pachall means a lot and we all saw how TCU struggled following his suspension last year. The offense simply wasn’t the same. TCU may be a defense-heavy team, but in this matchup, a lot of points are going to need to be scored. Mayfield is on a good roll and even against a stout TCU “D,” he will put up some points.
You have to wonder if the whole TCU squad will be demoralized a bit. They had become accustomed to having Pachall back in there all summer. Returning players had to notice how the team seemed to sag after losing Pachall last season and now it’s happening again. Maybe on an unconscious level, some bad thoughts have begun to creep in. Not for nothing, but TCU’s win over Southeastern Louisiana was only their 3rd win in their last 9 games.
For Mayfield, this is a welcome to big-time college football and it might not be a warm welcome, with the freshman QB facing a defense unlike anything he’s ever seen. Look for him to take a step forward this week. But with these two teams, the action could be fast and furious, and it’s not easy to predict how it will all shake out.
Loot's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Take Texas Tech and 3.5 points.
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