Temple Owls (0-5 SU, 2-3 ATS) vs. Cincinnati Bearcats (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS)
College Football Week 7
Date/Time: Friday, October 11, 2013 at 8:30PM EST
Where: Nippert Stadium, Cincinnati, Ohio
TV: ESPN
By Loot, NCAA Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Point Spread: TEM +21.5/CIN -21.5
Over/Under Total: TBA
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On Friday night, the Temple Owls come into Nippert Stadium to face the Cincinnati Bearcats in an American Athletic Conference battle. The Bearcats are 3-2, but are coming off a rough loss at South Florida on Saturday. Temple, meanwhile, is coming off a tough 5 weeks, where they have failed to win a single game. For betting purposes, both teams are 2-3 ATS.
Temple high-watered as a program in 2011 with 9 wins. Last season, they sunk to 4 wins as they moved to a new conference. It looks to have bottomed-out this season, unfortunately, for the Owls. Losing to Notre Dame, Houston, and Louisville is perfectly fine. They’re supposed to lose. But when you start coming up short against Fordham and Idaho--you have major issues. For those looking for silver lining, they did manage to lose to Louisville last week 30-23 as 30-point dogs. It shows that maybe they haven’t completely thrown in the towel mentally. But covering the spread against teams overlooking them like Notre Dame and Louisville is overshadowed by a pair of losses in games they really should have won. The Fordham and Idaho losses make Temple a dicey proposition indeed.
Cincinnati was equally disappointing on Saturday. As double-digit favorites against a sputtering South Florida team, they lost the game outright by 6 points. QB Brendon Kay has fully taken the reigns after the horrific injury suffered by Munchie Legaux. Though he wasn’t particularly good last week, his size and ability should be a handful for the Owls “D” on Saturday. The Bearcats have a nice 1-2 running punch with Hosey Williams and Ralph Abernathy IV, with Kay also serving as a threat to run. They have a nice crew of receivers, but there are no real playmakers, as we have become accustomed to seeing on Cincinnati teams in recent years. While the Owls have been coming down to earth in the last few years, Cincinnati looks to be regressing after consecutive 10-win seasons.
Obviously, Cincinnati is in better position to turn things around. There is a lot of team talent on both sides of the ball. Against Purdue, Northwestern State, and Miami-Ohio, they gave up a combined 16 points. This defense is especially stout against bad teams.
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Temple has not allowed more than 30 points this season and have been stingy versus better teams, enough to make covering gigantic spreads a little tough. They lost to Notre Dame and Louisville by 22 and 23 points, respectively. Cincinnati will need to do something like that just to cover this spread and they’re not as good as either of those teams. They did beat the Owls by 24 last season, for whatever that’s worth. Neither teams is as good this season.
Temple used to be in the Big East before getting booted. They ended up in the MAC and no offense to their program, but their talent is still MAC-level, even as they earned re-entry into their old conference. QB Connor Reilly is a gamer and tries hard, but the junior is finding the going tough for the most part, with only 2 touchdowns in 5 games. Kenneth Harper, their leading back, has 6 touchdowns, but is not a game-changer, nor is RB Zaire Williams. Their receiving crew, while decent, is simply not productive enough on a regular basis. At least they have a defense that is a bit more clutch. They are not good against the pass being 124th in the nation, but again, not giving up more than 30 points with the teams they’ve played says something.
Cincinnati has the better skill players and the greater overall team talent. Kay has a lot of ability and if he can get on a roll, they should put together some wins. But last week against South Florida was a reality sandwich type of game. Sure, results can be schizophrenic in college football, but to get beaten by a winless team as big favorites confirms this Bearcats team in unreliable. But at home against Temple is still a spot they can exploit, make no mistake about it.
With a point-spread of 21.5, Temple has some room to work, if they could just put up some points. If they were able to keep Cinci in the 30’s, as they did Notre Dame and Louisville, a couple scores could do the trick. But how much can Temple be depended on to produce? This Bearcats’ home “D” has been robust so far and Temple’s offense has hardly been blossoming. But Temple has a certain undefinable quality, one that allows them to sort of water down the action, especially against superior teams. Look for them to hang in there enough to cover the number.
Loot's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Take the Temple Owls and 21.5 points.
