Tennessee Volunteers (4-0 SU, 2-2 ATS) vs. Georgia Bulldogs (3-1 SU, 1-3 ATS)
College Football Week 5
Date/Time: Saturday, October 1, 2016 at 3:30PM EST
Where: Sanford Stadium, Athens, Georgia
TV: CBS
By Loot, NCAA Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Betting Odds: TENN -3/UGA +3
Over/Under Total: 54
The Tennessee Volunteers come into Athens to take on the Georgia Bulldogs on Saturday in a big SEC East Division matchup. When it comes to last week, you can't find two teams more on the opposite end of the spectrum. Tennessee overcame a huge deficit to end an 11-game losing streak to Florida, winning 38-28, with a huge second half spurt. Georgia, hoping to make a statement in week 4, was smoked by Ole Miss, 45-14. It wasn't even that close. Georgia fell behind 45-0 and added two meaningless TDs in what counts as a bad development for a program that was showing promise at 3-0.
For Tennessee, being able to win a game where they overcome adversity and ascend to the clouds was a pivotal result for a program that is trying to forge itself back into national prominence. We were optimistic of Tennessee's chances to end the drought against Florida, with the Gators having lost their quarterback. But midway through the second quarter, it was 21-0, Gators. Tennessee QB Joshua Dobbs was off to a putrid start and it looked like a long day was in store. Tennessee got a FG before the half, but the task looked tall indeed.
The Volunteers rattled off 38 straight points and put the game away, as Dobbs got into the swing of things with over 300 yards and 4 TD passes and a touchdown run in a huge second-half performance. He ran for 80 yards on the day. Jalen Hurd added 95 yards rushing. Dobbs connected with receiver Jauan Jennings, who had 111 yards receiving, while Josh Malone added 91, as both caught TD passes. After having to go to overtime to beat Appalachian State and a week three lukewarm 28-19 win over the Ohio Bobcats, they needed an explosion like the one they had on Sunday to perhaps break the ice and get into another dimension just in time for these big SEC games. In putting up 38 points in about a quarter-and-a-half, they showed what they can do, especially as it came against a Florida team that had ridden its defense to an SEC East title last season and a 3-0 mark this season. That really counts for something.
Watching the Tennessee-Florida game, it was nice to see the Volunteers "D" step up in order for the offense to do its thing in the big comeback win. To open the second half, a Florida offense that was cruising hit a wall in sudden and emphatic fashion. Scoring drives were replaced with a long series of three-and-out sequences. The defense fed off the offense and as the offense upped the ante, so did the other side of the ball. A Gators TD with 4 minutes left in the quarter after Tennessee turned a 21-point deficit into a 17-point lead was the only thing they gave up in the second-half. Against what figures to be ticked-off Georgia bunch, they're going to need all the help they can get.
Georgia has some things to figure out after losing to Ole Miss and not really being able to give it a good go. To lose is one thing, but to be so utterly dominated was a definite step back in Kirby Smart's initial season. At the same time, the tendency on the part of some will be to bury Georgia on the basis of that one game. Let's try to put it in its proper perspective. Ole Miss may have been 1-2, but they also were good enough to build up huge leads against both Florida State and Alabama—no easy feat. Granted, Ole Miss blew both of those leads in epic second-half collapses and they weren't going to let that happen three times in four games against Georgia. In other words, they may have been slaughtered by Ole Miss, but that doesn't mean they stink. There is still work to be done and they need to get back on-point for the remainder of the season starting here at home where a win would put some wind back into their sails.
Unfortunately for the Bulldogs, star RB Nick Chubb sprained his ankle in the second quarter of the Ole Miss game and did not return. His absence would be really bad and even a diminished Chubb could take away a key piece from this offense, even as Brian Herrien was impressive with a pair of TD runs. Chubb is listed as questionable this week. Sony Michel also added 66 yards and provides another piece in the deep UGA backfield in the event that Chubb misses time or is diminished. QB Jacob Eason was not up-to-snuff in his first big road test, going 16-for-36 with just 137 yards, no touchdowns and a pick. He was unable to get the ball into the hands of the Georgia receivers, namely Isaiah McKenzie or Terry Godwin.
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The Georgia defense will be taken to task after the prolific performance they allowed to the Ole Miss offense. Let's also keep in mind that no one is saying the Alabama defense is bad after they gave up 43 points and 522 total yards to the Rebels offense, so maybe we should go easy on a Georgia defense that gave up 45 points and 510 yards of offense to the same team. It's just that after giving up respectable totals to Nichols State and a good North Carolina offense, the defense was not terribly stout against Missouri in week three and certainly not against Ole Miss on Saturday. Against a Tennessee offense that unveiled its explosive potential last week against a good Florida "D," what answers can they come up with at home on Saturday?
Time and again in the young season, we have seen the pitfalls of getting carried away with one game or even a short window of games, or overly-relying on "current form" to win bets. Just as writing Ole Miss off after two collapses would have gotten us nowhere in the Georgia game, we can't now do the same thing with Georgia. After Tennessee made headlines with their comeback win over Florida, combined with Georgia's emphatic loss to Ole Miss, we could get carried away with the dichotomy of both team's predicaments heading into week five. With that said, the win over the Gators should help the Volunteers and I see a win and cover this week for the Vols.
Loot's Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I'm betting on the Tennessee Volunteers minus 3 points. Bet the Volunteers vs. Bulldogs game for FREE by taking advantage of a massive 100% sign-up bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $500 at GTBets!
