Tennessee Volunteers (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) vs. Oregon Ducks (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS)
College Football Week 3
Date/Time: Saturday, September 14, 2013 at 3:30PM EST
Where: Autzen Stadium, Eugene, Oregon
TV: ESPN 2
By Loot, NCAA Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Point Spread: Ten +25.5/Quack Attack -25.5
Over/Under Total: 72
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On Saturday, the Tennessee Vols roll into Eugene to face the high-powered Oregon Ducks. Tennessee, after two easy wins, is getting thrown into the deep end with a road game against college football’s most-explosive offense. But it’s also a little bit of a test for Oregon, who has seen everything go their way in a pair of lopsided wins to start what they hope is a huge 2013 campaign.
Tennessee is 2-0 and has outscored their opponents 97-20, but the jury is still out. Beating Austin Peay and Western Kentucky by big margins is promising, but Oregon is a huge jump up in difficulty. Oregon’s offense is utterly explosive. They can put up points quickly and take teams that are trying to hang in there and just ground them into hamburger. Last week, Virginia, only a 23-point underdog, ended up losing by almost 50 at home after Oregon kicked their offense into full-gear.
It would be one thing if the offense were the only thing Oregon brought to the table, but the Oregon defense is also a handful this season. It’s one thing to stomp a team like Nicholls State, but in going to Virginia and romping to a 59-10 win really showed a lot. The line is fierce and puts a lot of pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Tennessee quarterback Justin Worley will be seeing a level of menace unlike anything he’s seen before.
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Tennessee has a ways to go, but are headed in the right direction under new head coach Butch Jones, who brings a ton of energy to the program. The offense is faster-paced and the team has basically undergone a big overhaul. The defense, which has gone to a 4-3, has some more pep after giving up 37 or more points in 8 games last season. But keeping teams like Austin Peay and Western Kentucky in check doesn’t indicate they can hang with Oregon.
A lot of this game comes down to how well Tennessee can maintain in face of an Oregon offense that is really loaded. De’Anthony Thomas is going to be running past people this season and QB Marcus Mariota already has 235 yards on the ground on only 9 carries. And he can connect to a slew of ball-catching threats at will. It takes some wishful thinking to project Tennessee having much of any success against this offense. To make matters worse, this isn’t an Oregon team that takes it easy against massive underdogs. Their motivation doesn’t ever seem to sag in situations like this. A lot of non-threatening teams they are supposed to pound end up getting pounded worse than what was predicted. They just don’t let up in situations like this so expecting a letdown usually doesn’t work with Oregon. They have covered both times this season as big favorites and after the polling weirdness of last year, seem to be looking to really maximize their level of butt-whippings.
In this game, we know Oregon is going to score points. The question is if Tennessee can keep pace, at least from a point-spread standpoint. That remains to be seen. Their up-tempo offense features a pair of good backs in Raijon Neal and Marlin Lane, Jr., who have combined for 7 touchdowns in 2 games. They have weapons and will need them all to play up to par to stand a chance and keep even a loose grip on this game. Their O-line looks pretty darned good and it’s not easy to torch teams like that.
This Vols squad looks to be headed in the right direction after not getting to a bowl in the past two seasons. It’s just a little difficult to gauge where they are exactly on the curve based on wins over Austin Peay and Western Kentucky. WKU did beat them last season, so beating them by 32 as only 14-point favorites is promising. Again, Oregon is a different beast--on both sides of the ball.
We can’t just bet the U of O every week and expect them to score around 60 points, while holding their opponents to very little. The oddsmakers obviously expect Tennessee to put up some points here, just gauging from the total of 72 and the spread of 25.5. That’s as if they’re expecting something in the neighborhood of 49-24, Oregon. That sounds reasonable enough. But if any team is likely to play outside that predicted form, it may be Oregon. Then again, laying big numbers week after week on a team has a way of backfiring.
Loot's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Take the Oregon Ducks and lay 25.5 points.
