Texas A&M Aggies (6-0 SU, 4-2 ATS) vs. Alabama Crimson Tide (7-0 SU, 5-2 ATS)
College Football Week 8
Date/Time: Saturday, October 22, 2016 at 3:30PM EST
Where: Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, Alabama
TV: CBS
By Loot, NCAA Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Betting Odds: TAM +17/ALA -17
Over/Under Total: 58.5
The Texas A&M Aggies take on the Alabama Crimson Tide in what is shaping up to be the heavyweight SEC matchup of 2016. The Aggies are facing a spot here where they can include their names among the elite. While it is unfortunate for them to have to come to Bryant-Denny Stadium, they had a week off following their big win over Tennessee and should be rested and ready. 'Bama also beat Tennessee last week, though by a far-more convincing score of 49-10. They also look to be peaking heading into this massive matchup.
A lot is lining up nicely for the Aggies for the purposes of this matchup. After a four-week stretch of SEC matchups, they caught a timely week off, which followed a 45-38 overtime win over Tennessee. They enter this game a battle-tempered team, having overcome some difficult spots. In their opener, they had to repel a furious late UCLA rally to pull out a win in overtime. They showed their class in winning their 4 next games without much drama. But after getting off to a 28-7 lead over the Volunteers, they had to withstand yet another furious rally to win in overtime. Granted, they've had to go to overtime twice and were fortunate both times. But in both of those spots, they were dealing with late-surging teams and still were able to out-produce those teams in OT. At the same time, they've shown a tendency to blow leads late and not play as strong overall in the second half, which naturally won't work at all against Alabama.
Former Oklahoma star Trevor Knight has resurfaced as the QB for the rising Aggies and he's a senior with grit and experience. He's an ambitious young man eager to forge a path for him and his team. He was never the most accurate passer even when he was with the Sooners and that pattern has continued this season with a 53.5 completion percentage. But he makes up for it in different ways. He's a clutch performer this season, delivering several different times in a pinch. And he is really useful with his legs with 9 TD runs. His three touchdowns on the ground and two through the air were big in their win over the high-flying Vols two weeks back.
Between Knight and running back Trayveon Williams, the Aggies run-game has been on-point this season. Williams is averaging a frightening 8.6 yards a carry. With Knight always bound to break loose and Williams a threat, opposing defenses have a lot to worry about with the Aggies offense. The aerial attack has some good talent, as well. Josh Reynolds and Christian Kirk lead the way, with Ricky Seals-Jones, Jeremy Tabuyo, and Speedy Noil also being threats. This offense averages 40 points a game and while they run the ball as well as any team, they don't lack balance, with Knight and Company able to strike with effectiveness. And let's not forget in Knight's best-ever performance, he led the Sooners to a win over' Bama in the 2014 Sugar Bowl as a freshman.
The Texas A&M defense has a lot going for it, with a definite playmaking element at play. They have 19 sacks through 6 games and apply a nice and consistent pass rush. They're giving up under 20 point a game despite sometimes being pretty leaky in the pass-defense department. And against Tennessee, they had to go overtime with a team where the offense coughed up 7 turnovers. Still, they've been clutch in spots. Sometimes they get run over a bit, but they stepped up when most needed and that's what counts. Myles Garrett, a star on the line, is questionable and having him in there would be nice. Coordinator John Chavis is in his second season and the improvement on this side of the ball has been marked, as the "D" is no longer such a glaring team weakness. But their leakiness against the run and pass could definitely prove to be troublesome this week. But having star power with Garrett, DE Daeshon Hall, safeties Armani Watts and Justin Evans, and LB Shaan Washington.
The Crimson Tide took a 14-0 lead against the Vols on Saturday on the road and it was never competitive. They used a thick dose of the run game, with QB Jalen Hurts running for 132 yards and three TDs, while Bo Scarborough gaining 109 with a score. Damien Harris added 94, with freshman Joshua Jacobs adding some useful runs. It's a super-deep backfield and their 438 yards just on the ground on the road attests to that, even if it was against a Tennessee "D" that had been compromised by injuries, softened up to some degree by Texas A&M the week prior. Calvin Ridley and ArDarius Stewart add a lot of pop in the aerial game, but it wasn't really needed on Saturday.
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Making it all come together for the Tide this season is the "D" and special teams. The Tennessee win was the 9th straight game they scored a non-offensive TD. Ronnie Harrison returned a pick for a touchdown, while Eddie Jackson returned a punt for a touchdown. This season alone, they've scored ten non-offensive touchdowns. No team has given up fewer yards in the whole nation against the run. Their front-seven is fierce. They might not be as deep across all areas as in some of their championship seasons, but the pass-rush is immense and probably the best in the nation. While not as robust as the front, the secondary is good and can make a lot of plays. On Saturday, Tennessee QB Joshua Dobbs managed just 92 yards, as the fleet-of-foot quarterback was held to -31 yards on the ground.
Knight may have thrived against 'Bama before, but that was not this Tide bunch, which is far superior, especially on the other side of the ball. Knight's inaccuracy could really cost him against this "D" and while A&M back Trayveon Williams has been heating up, things could look a little different this week against the tip-top Alabama front. Still, the Aggies have enough talent, ambition, and playmaking ability on both sides of the ball to be competitive with any team in the country. This is in a lot of ways a defining moment for the Aggies and while it's a massive "ask," I see the Aggies managing to cover the big number.
Loot's Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I'm betting on the Texas A&M Aggies plus 17 points. Tired of your credit card not working for sportsbook deposit? End that problem today by signing up and betting the Aggies vs. Crimson Tide at Bovada Sportsbook where your credit card WILL work and where you'll receive a generous 100% sign-up bonus!
