Texas Longhorns (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS) vs. California Golden Bears (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS)
College Football Week 3
Date/Time: Saturday, September 17, 2016 at 10:30PM EST
Where: Memorial Stadium, Berkeley, California
TV: ESPN
By Loot, NCAA Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Betting Odds: TEX -7.5/CAL +7.5
Over/Under Total: Off
The Texas Longhorns come to Berkeley on Saturday to face the California Golden Bears in week three Big 12 vs. Pac-12 action. Texas has something cooking for the first time in the Charlie Strong era, with some things finally paying off. They followed an upset and program-boosting week one win over Notre Dame with a 41-7 win and cover over in-state opponent UTEP on Saturday. Cal opened the season with a 51-31 win against Hawaii in Australia on August 26, before getting a little break leading up to Saturday, where they took a tough 40-35 loss to San Diego State.
Last season's matchup between these two teams was a battle-royale, with Cal coming into Austin with their Jared Goff-led offense and winning in a 45-44 war. It's unclear how much that matters this season. There are new stars on both casts, though some of the supporting players remain the same. One thing is clear and that is that Texas looks like they're heading places this season.
Texas faces Cal and then Oklahoma State on the road in a pair of critical games that will go a long way toward determining the Longhorns' fate. Freshman Shane Buechle has cemented himself in the starting QB role with two strong performances. Against El Paso, he threw four TD passes to go along with the three he had against the Fighting Irish in week one. RB Chris Warren III has opened the season with two strong showings. After having 73 yards receiving in week one, former QB Jerrod Heard continued adjusting to his new role with two TD receptions against UTEP. A nice balance on offense is forming for the Longhorns. It's not electric perhaps, but it has a solid and dependable feel to it. Buechle has shown considerable upside and even a lively set of legs in his first two Longhorns appearances. The zone read approach is working and different people are making major contributions.
The Texas defense did give up 444 yards of offense in game one against Notre Dame and even against the lesser likes of UTEP, they gave up some big plays, including a 51-yard TD run. Still, there have been more positive signs than negative. There was a certain element of timely good play from Texas against Notre Dame, despite the high score. And against UTEP, they more than locked it down. It's hard to imagine this group giving up another feeding frenzy to Cal, especially with Cal's apparent diminished state this season—at least offensively without the prolific Goff. More important than the specific details perhaps is an overall spirit in the Texas locker-room at this point. After some seasons of hard-knocks and unfulfilled expectations, doing things the right way is beginning to pay off. Strong cleared the team of negative personalities in lieu of a talent-first approach and we're starting to see the fruits of his efforts.
Cal is at least still high-flying with new QB Davis Webb. In two games, the former Texas Tech QB has thrown for 963 yards and 9 TD throws. Against San Diego State in Cal's 40-35 loss, Webb was prolific, though a couple picks proved key, including one run back for a TD. And the Cal defense, particularly against the run, was pretty lousy and not terribly clutch. They couldn't stop Aztecs' back Donnel Pumphrey to save their lives, as he ran wild for 281 yards on the ground. Cal also gave up a 100-yard kickoff return for a TD, so they were victimized defensively in any number of different ways. Even giving up 31 to Hawaii in a week one win wasn't a terribly strong endorsement of the Cal "D." This is a team that is going to be in a lot of shootouts this season. The defense wasn't their strong suit last season and looks even more dicey in 2016.
Still, when a team can air it out like Cal, you can only feel so safe. Junior receiver Chad Hansen went wild with 14 receptions and 190 yards. He has 350 yards through two games and is obviously developing a nice chemistry with Webb. Big body receiver Raymond Hudson looks like a nice red-zone threat and caught two touchdowns on Saturday. Vic Wharton, III. and Demetris Robertson were also big on Saturday. At the same time, you better have some glossy stats in the aerial package when your QB makes 72 throws, as Webb did. More overall efficiency and less turnovers would help, as Cal had 4 costly ones on Saturday against a good San Diego State team that won't allow you to make mistakes without paying the cost.
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There is a lot of perception wrapped up in this game. You see Texas beat a highly-regarded Notre Dame team and cover the spread the next week. A new QB is behind center and giving this offense the identity it has lacked in the past few seasons. But maybe that paints too rosy of a picture. What if Notre Dame wasn't as good as advertised? They still had to go down to the wire to beat them by a nose. In other words, there is no guarantee that the Texas renaissance that everyone is talking about is the real deal. A 3-point win over the Fighting Irish is not enough ammo to justify signaling a revival. The signs are positive enough—make no mistake about it. Contrast that to Cal. Their defense is bad and they're without the QB who helped make them relevant for the first time in ages. But they still can let it fly on offense. Their QB was once good enough to beat out Baker Mayfield for a starting gig. And San Diego State might be better than people want to realize. The season is two games old and it's far too early to cast these teams with any concrete roles. Remember—fools rush in.
This is no piece of cake for Texas with the trip out of their element to Berkeley. They better have their legs underneath them, as Cal will test them, especially on defense. But Cal has shown a stark inability to stop an offense. And though there was a long break between games, going to the Land Down Under and then getting out-legged in a punishing game against SDSU isn't the most refreshing way to begin a season. I think Texas provides a reality sandwich for a still-potent, but incomplete Cal team.
Loot's Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I'm betting on the Texas Longhorns minus 7.5 points. Tired of your credit card not working for sportsbook deposit? End that problem today and bet the Longhorns vs. Golden Bears game in the comfort of your own home by signing up at Bovada Sportsbook where your credit card WILL work and where you'll receive a generous 100% sign-up bonus!
