Texas Longhorns (8-4 SU, 6-6 ATS) vs. Oregon Ducks (10-2 SU, 7-5 ATS)
Valero Alamo Bowl
Date/Time: Monday, December 30, 2013 at 6:45PM EST
Where: Alamodome, San Antonio, Texas
TV: ESPN
By Loot, NCAA Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Point Spread: TEX +14/ORE -14
Over/Under Total: 67
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In this year’s Alamo Bowl, the Texas Longhorns meet the Oregon Ducks at the Alamodome in San Antonio. The Ducks had hoped for more this year, but two losses and being locked out of the Pac-12 conference title game led to them being in a pre-New Year Bowl game. Texas has also had their share of issues this season and finished the year at 8-4, but after a 1-2 start, they had their moments, including a win over Oklahoma. Should be a good game, but as 14-point favorites, Oregon is expected to more or less have their way.
You can only be so hard on a 10-win team, but this is letdown-city for the University of Oregon. For a while there, they were looking pretty good as a potential BCS Championship game participant. So with all due respect to the Alamo Bowl, which has been a staple of the bowl season for years, this is not what the Ducks had in mind. They carried an 8-0 record into Stanford and again were snake-bitten by their Pac-12 rival, losing 26-20. But a flabbergasting 42-17 road loss to Arizona was the real deal-breaker. And in their last game at home, they barely squeaked by a downward-spiraling Oregon State, relying on late-game dramatics to get the 36-35 win. So, they’re not exactly peaking. And to fall so far and arrive in this spot with such a deafening thud has to be bad for morale.
There are reasons for the fall-off. Marcus Mariota, putting together a fantastic season, became sloppy at the end of the year. A lot of important pieces went down, a once-sound defense came apart at the seams, and they were not able to elevate their urgency and form in the crucial parts of the year. Even so, they still have a tough offense to stop and it’s not that hard to imagine the Ducks having a field day against this Longhorns’ defense.
The Longhorns aren’t exactly coming into this game with a gust of wind at their backs. They did a good job to get things on the right track after a rough 1-2 start that saw them give up ridiculous yardage, especially on the ground. At 7-2, they had beaten a good Oklahoma team. Then they took a beating at the hands of Oklahoma State, 38-13, before losing to Baylor 30-10. The Baylor score is a bit misleading, being that they were actually in the game until the 4th quarter. Their results haven’t been so bad considering their issues on both sides of the ball. It doesn’t help when longtime coach Mack Brown’s status is being constantly questioned, especially when he did a tip-top job this year of taking what looked to be a dysfunctional Texas team all the way to the Big 12 Championship. A lot of this game and who covers the spread is going to come down to which team can keep their head up higher in light of recent disappointments.
At the same time, Texas seems to struggle against some of the things U of O brings to the table. The Longhorns have fared better against more one-dimensional offenses, even good ones like Oklahoma. Against spread offenses and particularly multi-dimensional quarterbacks, they have struggled. With Oregon’s run game featuring Byron Marshall (questionable), De’Anthony Thomas. Thomas Tyner, and Mariota, Texas will have a lot of different weapons to contain. Mariota, troubled with a banged-up knee, should benefit from the extra time off and come into this game with more pep in his step than seen in recent weeks.
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Texas losing DT Chris Whaley and LB Jordan Hicks for the season has made them even more vulnerable, especially up the middle where Oregon can really do damage. Those were their best guys and not having them has really cost this defense. Still, they did hold Baylor to 3 first-half points in their last game. If they can catch a slow-starting UO team, is it that hard to imagine them having a chance to win or at least cover a nearly-two touchdown point-spread?
There may be a motivation factor at play that may favor Texas. There are some seniors looking to get a good send-off and say what you will about Mack Brown, but his team seems to have a certain affection for their longtime leader. With it starting to look like this is Brown’s swan-song, look for a good effort from his players, as they look to give Brown the pleasure of leaving on a high-note. And again, that could be a factor when you juxtapose Texas’ mindset with the possible apathy that Oregon may feel landing in this spot.
Sentimentality alone doesn’t win games. The bottom-line is that there are matchup issues galore that Texas will need to overcome. But with the 13-point spread, maybe they have just enough fire in their bellies to stay within reach of a superior team, but one that might not show up with a superior headspace. I’m leaning Longhorns.
Loot's Pick to Cover the Alamo Bowl Point Spread: I’m taking the Texas Longhorns plus 14 points.
