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The Fear Of Being Wrong

College Football Betting: The Fear of Being Wrong

By Loot, NCAA Football Handicapper,

Losing a sports bet is not easy to stomach for the inexperienced betting man. First of all, there is the natural unhappiness that accompanies losing money. On top of that, most guys just have an aversion to being proven wrong. Maybe some of us just don't like to do things where there is a possibility that we're not any good.

As kids, there were sports where we were good and those where we stunk. It's natural to participate in the ones where we thrive and not engage in sports where we make a fool of ourselves. Then as adults, we do the same thing. You don't see a guy who sucks at horseshoes out there everyday playing horseshoes. A guy who isn't very handy isn't building add-ons to his house. By the time we get to the age where we're old enough to bet on sports, we're more or less set in our ways.

Whether you want to bet on college football is up to you. The reasons for not doing it are mostly understandable. After all, people have families to support. Bills have to be paid. But the fear of failure is not a good reason. Once we realize the inherent role failure plays in college football betting, we can better come to grips with it.

The numbers alone tell us that failure is a huge part of college football betting. The vast majority (over 95% if not more) can't make it at betting. Only a select few percent can show profits over the long-haul. And even those guys are losing 40% or more of their against-the-spread bets. They make it because at the end of the day, they just so happen to win a little more than they lose. Over the long-term, that can equal big money.

Look at it like the athletes we bet on when wagering on college football. A receiver doesn't complete every pass. If a QB can complete 60% of his passes, he's doing pretty well. Success in college football betting falls along the same lines. It's simply a matter of coming out a little ahead in chunks of time. Then later, there are enough chunks to build a castle.

The key characteristic to a professional college football bettor is a certain flippancy he has towards losing. It's the long-term vision on which he is focused. There's no one result or even a handful of results that are going to shake his foundation. A less-seasoned college football bettor is easy to spot at the sportsbook. He's the one carrying on like a lunatic when things don't go his way.

For some people, it's just hard to make an investment when 45% of the time (if you're good), the company is going to go kaput. College football betting is investing. Instead of companies, we're putting our money behind pigskin teams. Maybe some are just bothered by the all-or-nothing nature of college football betting. Whatever it is, a different way of looking at it is necessary. Again, it's all about winning more than you lose.

Fear and winning money at any form of gambling never go well together. No one is saying to be loose with your money and treat it like Monopoly cash, but college football betting is decision-based gambling. In a lot of forms of gaming, the clarity in our decisions are not as key of a consideration. In all forms of sports betting, all our moves are internally-motivated. It makes it important to have a clean slate, devoid of fear.


If someone is feeling rightfully fearful about losing, they shouldn't be betting. That means they're betting too much, an amount that is outside their comfort zone. If we establish a reasonable bankroll and bet a prudent amount on each game, there is no reason for fear. We are playing with money that won't impact our lives in any kind of significant way. And when we bet, we make moves where even if we lose, we only take a small hit.

We should never take it as a knock against our ego when we lose. This is a marathon. No, actually, it's more like a race to orbit. It takes years to make it in college football betting. And those who did make it never took it too hard when they lost. They knew that this turkey takes time to cook. Let it.

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