College Football Betting: The Power of Consistency
By Loot, NCAA Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
First of all, consistency is relative. There aren't many college football teams who stay on a steady trajectory for an entire season without some peaks and valleys. So that's not really attainable. At the same time, you'll find that a lot of the teams that fare best against the spread over the course of a season are the more steady squads. As we all know too well, most teams will perform with a wide range of play throughout the season. That could work out for us if that team is playing over its head on a given week, but all too often, a team underperforms and leaves their backers scratching their heads.
In other words, a lot of people are attracted to explosive teams—teams that tend to put up a lot of points. Or maybe they like teams with great defenses—teams with a lot of games where opponents weren't able to put up much of anything. And while those teams will often times be the right choice, you ultimately want to get behind teams that are more steady than explosive. And like anything when discussing college football betting, there are no hard-and-fast rules. It's not meant to be a constant guiding light, but more of a notion to consider when placing college pigskin wagers.
At the end of a day, predictability is an elusive asset to find on anything we wager on in all forms of sports betting. And to have our money on the commodity that is more bankable is what we should be shooting for. We might not get a lot of 30-point covers doing this, but we also won't have a long list of losers where potentially-explosive teams fell flat on that given weekend.
And when you take more-consistent teams, you won't be subject to those giant point spreads that go with the more explosive offensive teams or the shutdown defensive teams. When those teams fail to cover the spread, it gets less notice. Say an explosive TCU team is -31 to beat Kansas State and TCU wins 41-14. On the surface, that looks like a good win—a conclusive result by any interpretation. But for those who backed TCU, that's a loss. It just doesn't jump out to the fan as a failure on TCU's part. TCU doesn't lose bettor confidence when winning 41-14.
When betting on a less-explosive, but steady team, you won't typically be given such enormous point spreads. And a team favored by 31 that is up by 27 isn't going to feel the need to go above and beyond to cover the spread. A team that is steadier and given a point spread of -1.5 will be naturally trying to cover the spread, as it directly plays into their ability to win the game.
And that's not to imply that explosive teams can't be consistent. We'll often see teams that are consistently spanking opponents left and right. And these teams can sometimes deliver a slew of consecutive covers. But there's something funny that happens with teams like this. By the time we even notice that this team is delivering as a constant winner against-the-spread, the magic is over. And all of us have seen that time and again—where we incorrectly time a play on a hot team that fizzles out by the time we bet it.
ADD 20 POINTS TO THE UNDERDOG SPREAD OR KNOCK 20 POINTS OFF OF THE FAV BY INSERTING THIS GAME INTO A MASSIVE 20 POINT TEASER FOUND ONLY AT 5DIMES!
High-flying teams need a lot of things to go right for the team to take flight. And even if they are doing it week after week, it's an apple cart that is easily upset. With a less-flashy and consistently-delivering team, the things they depend on are not reliant on a bunch of stars lining up correctly. They run the ball behind a good line. Their passing game is not so easy to disrupt. They are just solid in an overall way—good at everything, without necessarily being great at any one thing. And these teams attract less-overall attention, thus receiving better value on point spreads.
Again, this is not an indictment on high-flying teams, nor is it a condemnation on betting on teams with wide ranges of play. It's merely a slight urging to put more consideration into betting on teams that are similar on a weekly basis. Because when teams play more according to form, it can give our handicapping greater resonance.
