Free Sports Picks: Home NFL CBB MLB MMA Boxing Super Bowl
LootMeister College Football Picks
Online SportsbooksBest Sportsbook Bonuses

The Power of Consistency

College Football Betting: The Power of Consistency

By Loot, NCAA Football Handicapper,

First of all, consistency is relative. There aren't many college football teams who stay on a steady trajectory for an entire season without some peaks and valleys. So that's not really attainable. At the same time, you'll find that a lot of the teams that fare best against the spread over the course of a season are the more steady squads. As we all know too well, most teams will perform with a wide range of play throughout the season. That could work out for us if that team is playing over its head on a given week, but all too often, a team underperforms and leaves their backers scratching their heads.

In other words, a lot of people are attracted to explosive teams—teams that tend to put up a lot of points. Or maybe they like teams with great defenses—teams with a lot of games where opponents weren't able to put up much of anything. And while those teams will often times be the right choice, you ultimately want to get behind teams that are more steady than explosive. And like anything when discussing college football betting, there are no hard-and-fast rules. It's not meant to be a constant guiding light, but more of a notion to consider when placing college pigskin wagers.

At the end of a day, predictability is an elusive asset to find on anything we wager on in all forms of sports betting. And to have our money on the commodity that is more bankable is what we should be shooting for. We might not get a lot of 30-point covers doing this, but we also won't have a long list of losers where potentially-explosive teams fell flat on that given weekend.

And when you take more-consistent teams, you won't be subject to those giant point spreads that go with the more explosive offensive teams or the shutdown defensive teams. When those teams fail to cover the spread, it gets less notice. Say an explosive TCU team is -31 to beat Kansas State and TCU wins 41-14. On the surface, that looks like a good win—a conclusive result by any interpretation. But for those who backed TCU, that's a loss. It just doesn't jump out to the fan as a failure on TCU's part. TCU doesn't lose bettor confidence when winning 41-14.

When betting on a less-explosive, but steady team, you won't typically be given such enormous point spreads. And a team favored by 31 that is up by 27 isn't going to feel the need to go above and beyond to cover the spread. A team that is steadier and given a point spread of -1.5 will be naturally trying to cover the spread, as it directly plays into their ability to win the game.

And that's not to imply that explosive teams can't be consistent. We'll often see teams that are consistently spanking opponents left and right. And these teams can sometimes deliver a slew of consecutive covers. But there's something funny that happens with teams like this. By the time we even notice that this team is delivering as a constant winner against-the-spread, the magic is over. And all of us have seen that time and again—where we incorrectly time a play on a hot team that fizzles out by the time we bet it.


High-flying teams need a lot of things to go right for the team to take flight. And even if they are doing it week after week, it's an apple cart that is easily upset. With a less-flashy and consistently-delivering team, the things they depend on are not reliant on a bunch of stars lining up correctly. They run the ball behind a good line. Their passing game is not so easy to disrupt. They are just solid in an overall way—good at everything, without necessarily being great at any one thing. And these teams attract less-overall attention, thus receiving better value on point spreads.

Again, this is not an indictment on high-flying teams, nor is it a condemnation on betting on teams with wide ranges of play. It's merely a slight urging to put more consideration into betting on teams that are similar on a weekly basis. Because when teams play more according to form, it can give our handicapping greater resonance.

Share this article with friends:

Leave a comment:

Quit wasting your hard earned money! Make the switch from -110 to -105 odds today!
Doc's Sports NCAA Football Picks

College Football Betting

  • BetOnline - Bet on college football games using your credit card at an online sportsbook where it WILL work for deposits and where they offer a generous 50% sign-up bonus!
  • Bovada - One of the oldest and most trusted bookies on the web. A welcoming bonus of 50% up to $250 FREE awaits you!
  • GTBets - Deposit $150 and get $150 FREE! One of the best promotions on the web allows you to pick your (2) favorite NCAA football teams and receive a FREE point every time you bet those teams!
  • Know Your Key Numbers - This is a fancy term for common margin of victory. It's very important that you know these before placing your bets!
  • 2017/2018 College Football Predictions - Odds for each team to win the college football playoff along with predictions of teams that have a legit shot of winning it all, including a longshot pick.
  • 2017 Heisman Trophy Odds - Picks to Win - College football pundits are expecting either Sam Darnold or Baker Mayfield to win the Heisman this year. Loot takes a look at these and other names that offer tremendous wagering value.


  • College Football Conferences - List of all NCAA football conferences including the teams that make up each conference.
  • Heisman Trophy Winners - A complete list of Heisman Trophy winners (college football's best player award) in chronological order, dating back to 1935.
  • Famous College Football Coaches - Behind every great team is an even better coach. Check out Loot's picks for the greatest of all-time.

Other Cool Sites

Reduced Juice Sports Betting 100% Sportsbook Bonus Best Parlay Odds Online