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Toledo Rockets vs. Bowling Green Falcons Point Spread - Pick

Toledo Rockets (8-2 SU, 5-5 ATS) vs. Bowling Green Falcons (2-8 SU, 2-8 ATS)
College Football Week 12
Date/Time: Wednesday, November 15, 2017 at 8PM EST
Where: Doyt Perry Stadium, Bowling Green, Ohio
TV: ESPNU

By Loot, NCAA Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com

Point Spread: TOL -17/BGSU +17
Over/Under Total: 64.5

The Toledo Rockets come to Doyt Perry Stadium to face Bowling Green in a MAC battle on Wednesday night. Bowling Green last played on the 7th, with Toledo last playing on the 8th of this month. Neither team had a great time of it in their last game. Toledo fell to 8-2 with their first MAC loss of the season, a surprisingly lopsided loss to Ohio, 38-10. It was their first loss in conference play and they look to get back on the winning track against a struggling Bowling Green bunch that sunk to 2-8 with a 38-28 loss to Buffalo in their last outing. They return home after two straight road games to host the favored Rockets. Who can get the cover on Wednesday? Last season, Toledo scored a 42-35 win against Bowling Green. A lot has changed since then, but the Falcons look to give Toledo another good game this time around.

Toledo was cruising along nicely until the blowout loss to Ohio. Prior to that, their only loss of the season came to an unbeaten Miami Hurricanes team. While Ohio was suspected to provide stiff resistance at home, the four-touchdown margin of victory was a tough pill for the Rockets to swallow heading into the final stretch of the season. They are still leading the MAC's West division, but another misstep could lead to trouble and jeopardize what was shaping into a really good season for Toledo. They look to get their powerful offense re-ignited, whole tightening up on "D," especially against the run, as Ohio put nearly 400 yards on the ground against Toledo in their last game.

Toledo's offense didn't fire against Ohio in their last game with a meager ten points of scoring. One should expect better this week with an offense that has been mostly strong, while also offering a lot of balance. They can take to the air with gusto, with the ability to also pound the ball. QB Logan Whiteside has 20 touchdown throws with just 2 picks and is nearing 3000 yards passing. He has one of the best receivers in the conference this season with Diontae Johnson, who is over 1000 yards. Cody Thompson and Jon'Vea Johnson have also made nice contributions. On the ground, they get solid play from Terry Swanson (questionable), who has 11 touchdowns, with Shakif Seymour and Art Thompkins also putting forth a lot of production. There is room for a lot of different players to thrive on this side of the ball.

The Toledo defense was doing well, especially in conference play. In their last five games leading up to the Ohio loss, they had given between 10-21 points, more than enough for the offense to take over the game. Giving up 38 to Ohio and getting run over by the ground game was a bad development, but Bowling Green's offense should be a little easier-to-contain. Still, it's not really a great group, a fact that has been camouflaged by an offense that is really high-scoring. They have a secondary that is pretty stout at this level and can also make plays. But with no pass-rush and poor overall run-defense, they are exploitable in the front-seven.

This season has not gone Bowling Green's way at 2-8. Those betting on the Falcons have also had a tough time of it, with BGSU covering two spreads all season. They scored two wins in-conference, both coming on the road. Their offense is pretty milquetoast, with a defense that often isn't able to stop much of anything. A ten-win team in 2015, Bowling Green slipped to just 4 wins last season and will be challenged to reach that total again this year.

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The Bowling Green offense had a pretty good day last season against Toledo. QB James Morgan threw five touchdowns on a big day passing. But after a horrible season, he has been replaced by Jarret Doege, who has been doing a good job in the few games he has started. They have a decent 1-2 punch at running back with Andrew Clair and Josh Cleveland. Aerially, the bulk of the work is split up between Scott Miller, Teo Redding, and Datrin Guyton. It's an offense that would look a lot better if given more support on the other side of the ball. But with a defense that allows 36 points a game on average, this offense is often left gasping for air and unable to keep pace with the better teams they have played.

The less said about the Bowling Green defense, the better. Point blank, they just aren't very good. The one good thing they do is get turnovers, with 22 secured on the season. Other than that, finding the silver lining is not an easy task. Against all but the worse teams in the MAC, they can be expected to give up gobs of points. Teams rush the ball against this group with impunity. Against the pass, the story doesn't get much better. And when in the need of some sort of pass-rush, this group just can't seem to summon it. They've been slightly better the last two weeks, albeit against fellow MAC basement-dwellers. Against Toledo, things could get ugly.

In-conference, the Rockets have been able to perform well against teams on this level. One could suspect Bowling Green to be a little grittier at home, though both of their victories this season came on the road. In three home games against MAC teams this season, the Falcons have lost by a combined 60 points. A lot has changed since last season's 42-35 Toledo win and I see the Rockets getting things back on the right track this week. I'mlaying the number on the Rockets.

Loot's Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I'm betting on the Toledo Rockets minus 17 points. Tired of your credit card not working for sportsbook deposit? End that problem today by signing up and betting the Toledo vs. Bowling Green game at Bovada Sportsbook where your credit card WILL work and where you'll receive a generous 50% sign-up bonus!

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