UCLA Bruins (5-1 SU, 5-1 ATS) vs. Oregon Ducks (7-0 SU, 6-1 ATS)
College Football Week 9
Date/Time: Saturday, October 26, 2013 at 7PM EST
Where: Autzen Stadium, Eugene, Oregon
TV: ESPN
By Loot, NCAA Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Point Spread: UCLA +22/ORE -22
Over/Under Total: 70
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On Saturday in a critical Pac-12 battle, the UCLA Bruins travel to Eugene to face the Oregon Ducks. For anyone fortunate enough to be betting on either of these two teams--they are a combined 11-2 against-the-spread. At 7-0, the Ducks are in the big picture, ranked 3rd in the BCS. UCLA is 5-1, but was undefeated prior to losing at Stanford on Saturday, 24-10.
Stanford is top-shelf, so let’s not be too hard on UCLA. Still, as only 4.5-point dogs at Stanford, obviously a little more was expected. An offense that looked so promising was held to a meager 10 points. The Bruins couldn’t run the ball. QB Brett Hundley threw two picks and the offense that had averaged over 45 points per game in its first 5 games was nowhere to be found. Such is often the case when facing top-flight competition. The University of California Los Angeles had shined in games against good opponents like Nebraska and Utah, but Stanford was a little too much at this point in the development of this team. Hopefully for the Bruins, they will be able to focus on this game and develop a convenient case of amnesia as it pertains to last week.
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This is an important game for UCLA. The last few seasons have been spent rebuilding respectability. This two-game stretch against Stanford and U of O were going to determine if they had truly graduated to the top level of the conference. While they came up short in part one of that test, they now have another opportunity, but their work is certainly cut out.
You almost have to feel for Oregon being only number-three. Alabama is one thing, but now the Ducks have to get around Florida State, something that could very well happen with an emphatic win over the 12th-ranked Bruins. Stanford is looming in Oregon’s next game, so this is really the time to do damage. The difficulty of their schedule lies right here. They lack the landmark wins that Alabama and Florida State have notched, but if they get through this game and Stanford, you won’t be able to say that.
The bad news for the Bruins is they have to stop an offense that is averaging 57.6 points per game and features the most explosive running game in the land. Star back De’Anthony Thomas is returning, giving the Ducks even more weaponry. QB Marcus Mariota has 19 touchdowns and zero interceptions. With 493 yards and 9 touchdowns on the ground, he is averaging over 10 yards a gallop. RB Byron Marshall has 746 yards and 9 more touchdowns to add into the mix. Receivers Josh Huff and Bralon Addison have combined for 12 touchdowns and nearly 1200 yards in the air.
That’s a mind-numbing amount of offensive firepower, but that’s not all. The Oregon “D” is 12th in the nation in points allowed with just a little over 17 a game. Their defensive stats are difficult to take at face-value, with teams usually falling behind early and by a lot. But it continues to be an underrated component of the Oregon game. Should UCLA do better than score 10 points like they did last week? Maybe so, but the Oregon defense is not too bad. One thing to wonder about is that after not giving up more than 16 points in their first 5 games, the Ducks “D” has given up 62 in the past 2 games. That might be a case of them doing just enough to get by, as one should expect them to perform a little better in the next two weeks.
The UCLA defense has grown in leaps-and-bounds in the last few years, but it’s going to take a really special unit to slow down the Ducks. The Bruins are not without hope, however. They just can’t afford to fall into a big hole because they’ll likely remain there. They need their defense to create some turnovers and for special teams to maybe contribute with a well-timed big play or two. Don’t underestimate coach Mora and what he’s managed to accomplish in his short time with the Bruins. Some weirder things have happened than the Bruins beating the Ducks.
Obviously, the early 22-point spread in favor of the Ducks doesn’t lend much optimism to the Bruins’ cause. It’s hard not to have the feeling that the line will be blown up on one side or the other. UCLA is either going to give the Ducks a good scrap or they’re going to get pummeled. I’m thinking a super pumped-up Ducks team has their way with a not-quite-ready-for-primetime Bruins squad.
Loot's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting the Quack Attack minus 22 points.
