UNLV Rebels (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS) vs. UCLA Bruins (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS)
College Football Week 2
Date/Time: Saturday, September 10, 2016 at 8PM EST
Where: Rose Bowl, Pasadena, California
TV: Pac-12 Network
By Loot, NCAA Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Betting Odds: UNLV +26.5/UCLA -26.5
Over/Under Total: 60.5
The UNLV Rebels come to the Rose Bowl to face the UCLA Bruins in week two action. The Rebels got their season off to a good start against FCS opponent Jackson State, posting a conclusive 63-13 win. Things naturally get a whole lot tougher against a good Pac-12 team this week, with the Rebels facing a tough road test. And it might be doubly-tough against an irritated UCLA team that was really put through the emotional ringer in week one, with a heartbreaking 31-24 overtime road loss to Texas A&M.
For years, the UNLV offense was stuck in the starting blocks, unable to create much in the way of a ground game or aerial attack. Tony Sanchez looks to make some things happen in his second year at the helm, as the offense made strides in 2016. As they entered this season, they had a dynamite wideout in Devonte Boyd, a nice O-line, and Nebraska transfer Johnny Stanton at QB. Add in a run game that was supposed to step up this season and there is some optimism with this Rebels' offense.
Week one of the season bore this out to some extent. Stanton was dynamic in his first game as Rebels quarterback, going 10-for-12 with three TD strikes to the star of the offense in Boyd. They didn't even need to take to the air that much, as the ground-game was hard to stop for opponent Jackson State, with UNLV tacking on 280 yards on the ground. C Williams, Lexington Thomas, and Xzaviar Campbell looked like an effective three-pronged machine, but again, the UCLA defense will be exponentially tougher than what the Rebels saw with Jackson St. in their opener. At the end of the say, you have an improving offense that returns a lot of firepower, while also getting a gust of hope from a transfer QB who could take this offense and do some things with it.
Eight starters return to a Las Vegas defense that has a lot of things to iron out. On the surface, at least, the defense lags far behind the offense in terms of optimism. The D-line was garbage last season, allowing 218 yards per game on the ground. New line coach Tony Samuel has a history of whipping lines in shape and should get this group on-point. Still, after registering 8 sacks as a defense last season, they need to get more aggressive. There are some good pieces in place and they're actually headed in the right direction. It's just that the progress might happen in very measured increments. This group is anything but bankable at this point.
UCLA trailed 24-9 to A&M in the 4th quarter in week one, before rallying to close the gap. Two quick UCLA touchdowns and a two-point conversion tied the game. Josh Rosen had struggled most of the game, before finding answers in the aerial attack late. And in overtime, a dropped Rosen ball cost them a chance to tie. It's just a bit deflating to mount such a great comeback and then come up snake-eyes in the overtime period.
It's maybe not fair to judge based on the game at Texas A&M. That is one tough way to open a season, with the frothing masses at College Station. And for a team working on a lot of new things offensively, the attacking and pass-rushing A&M defense was too much to overcome. But they almost did. On one hand, the Bruins struggled as they try to adopt more of a pro-style offense based on physical play up-front and a strong run-game. After all, their run-game and O-line looked to have taken a step back from last season. But when it came to stretching the field, Rosen showed he can, with 343 yards passing. His three picks, however, were costly.
Again, you don't want to judge a team too harshly based on one game. But starting running back Soso Jamabo was a bit sluggish at times, despite a respectable 91 yards. The line did a bad job of protecting Rosen, as he was scrambling around in the pocket all afternoon—sacked five times. There was some iffy play-calling, with Rosen hitting receivers with 4-yard slant routes on third and long—and things of the like. All in all, it was not a great debut by the offense, particularly up-front. Rosen made big throws to Kenneth Walker, III., Austin Roberts, and Eldridge Massington. But sometimes early, it seemed like UCLA was trying to make a point with this new style of offense, doing things like running on third down when it seemed like passing was a good idea. We'll see if the line can let this offense do some of the things they want to do this season.
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Last year, the main issue with the UCLA defense was its ability to stop the run. And with A&M tacking on 203 yards on 41 carries, it appears that this issue remains. The line played well at times and was able to apply pressure on Aggies' QB Trevor Knight, who didn't have that great of a game overall. A secondary that was expected to be tough looked pretty good. They should look a little better this week in their home opener against an opponent that provides only a fraction of the offensive menace they saw in week one.
By the same token, it appeared that UCLA was at least a little overrated in week one, with UNLV maybe being at least slightly underrated. This point spread is more what you would expect in a week one game. But we saw what we saw in week one and that's a UCLA team that is still under construction and a UNLV team that is primed for at least a slight surge. UCLA won't have that tough of a time perhaps, but UNLV should find the end zone a few times and make it really hard for the Bruins to cover the big number. I'm taking the Rebels.
Loot's Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I'm betting on the UNLV Rebels plus 26.5 points. Tired of your credit card not working for sportsbook deposit? End that problem today and bet the Rebels vs. Bruins game at home by signing up at Bovada Sportsbook where your credit card WILL work and where you'll receive a generous 100% sign-up bonus!
