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USC Trojans vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Point Spread - Pick

USC Trojans (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS) vs. Alabama Crimson Tide (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS)
College Football Week 1
Date/Time: Saturday, September 3, 2016 at 5PM EST
Where: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas
TV: ABC

By Loot, NCAA Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com

Point Spread: USC +10.5/ALA -10.5
Over/Under Total: 54

In a big week one matchup, the USC Trojans meet the defending champion Alabama Crimson Tide at AT&T Stadium on Saturday, September 3. Neither team is given a chance to warm up to the season with a tough opponent right out of the gate. After an 8-6 season, the Trojans are looking for answers and will need to hit the ground running against a Tide squad that has their sights set on a repeat. In what might be the gem of the week one schedule, who can get their season off to a good start? Oh, and who will cover the spread?

It wasn't an easy one for the Trojans last season, with Steve Sarkisian's troubles forcing him out and Clay Helton into the interim role, a gig he parlayed into the full-time job. He managed to keep the team intact, though they lost badly in their biggest games to Oregon, Stanford (twice), and Notre Dame. They still won the Pac-12 South and showed some positive signs moving forward. Alabama has a lot of key pieces to replace, but since when was that ever a problem? Enough pieces remain to give Nick Saban another great squad to work with, as they are again in title-or-bust mode this season. We see a lot of top teams being given a layup in week one, That's not the case with 'Bama, who will need to start the season fast against a dangerous-looking Southern Cal bunch.

Both teams have quarterback battles raging as of press time. Alabama has a 4-man battle, with the favorites looking like either redshirt freshman Blake Barnett or Cooper Bateman. It's something we will need to keep an eye on, though both are robust talents. At Southern Cal, the production of Cody Kessler needs to be replaced, though under his stewardship, the Trojans never really made it over the hump. The favorite appears to be Max Browne, with Sam Darnold also in the running.

Alabama looks to put some of that great depth to use this season. Gone are guys like Derrick Henry, a key cog to their offensive machine last season. Look for Bo Scarborough and others who materialize this summer to be good, but the run-game will likely take a step back. If a quarterback who can get the ball into the hands of the receivers develops, they are loaded in that regard with Calvin Ridley looking to really break through this season as a sophomore. Receiver ArDarius Stewart has star potential in this offense. Other offensive weapons include tight end OJ Howard and guys like Gehrig Dieter and Robert Foster. The line needs to replace 3 starters, but there was such a surplus of beef of that sideline last season, you almost have to assume they'll figure something out.

The Tide defense lost a lot of their heart with the departures of A'Shawn Robinson, Jarran Reed, Reggie Ragland, and others. They will be calling on guys like Da'Shawn Hand, Da'Ron Payne, Dalvin Tomlinson, and Jonathan Allen, who should comprise a good line. Reuben Foster is a handful at middle linebacker and the middle should be fine with running mates Tim Williams and Ryan Anderson. Guys like corner Cyrus Jones and S Eddie Jackson should keep the secondary moving forward after a season where they showed a lot of improvement.

The new Southern California quarterback will have a lot of tools with which to work. Despite working a new QB into the mix, the SC offense should have more overall aggression, leadership, and experience this season. Two good backs return with Ronald Jones (987 yards) and Justin Davis (902 yards) and they should combine for a nice 1-2 punch. JuJu Smith might be the best receiver in the conference with over 1400 yards last season. Also in the aerial game is multi-talented Adoree Jackson, along with Steven Mitchell, Darreus Rogers, and TE Tyler Petite. And making sure that all the pieces are in place for a young QB to thrive, the O-line returns all starters from a season in 2015 where they were not very good and extremely young. They should come around nicely this season. The talent on this offense is abundant, but it's still not easy to predict how it will all materialize.

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Old Southern Cal defensive coordinator Clancy Pendergast returns to the fold and one should look for a more aggressive and risk-taking unit this season. The 5-2 set that he often utilizes can really throw opposing offenses off their course. Unfortunately for Clancy, the defensive front was the hardest hit by departures. A surge is anticipated from pass-rusher Porter Gustin, with sophomore tackles Rasheem Green and Noah Jefferson expected to deliver in the run-stop. At linebacker, Cameron Smith was a handful as a freshman and the performances of Olajuwon Tucker and Uchenna Nwosu will be key. In the secondary is where Adoree Jackson really shines as a great corner. He was also the second-leading receiver for the Trojans in '15, while adding 2 punt returns to the house, to boot. He is joined in the back by CB Iman Marshall, SS Marvell Tell, and Jack Jones. If the line fills out nicely and linebackers playing alongside Smith fulfill their promise, the "D" should be pretty good. They will certainly be put to the test in their first game, though.

Alabama really got better as the season rolled on last year and that might be the case again, with some things needing to be worked out. USC also has some issues, but their offense is totally intact other than at the QB position, a spot Alabama is still working on, too. The Tide lost enough of their defensive prowess from last season to make it hard for them to contain all the USC weapons for four quarters. Champions like 'Bama find a way to win and I expect them to do so here, but the Trojans look to have enough talent to hang in there and cover the spread.

Loot's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I'm betting on the USC Trojans plus 10.5 points. Tired of your credit card not working for sportsbook deposit? End that problem today by signing up at Bovada Sportsbook where your credit card WILL work and where you'll receive a generous 50% sign-up bonus!

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