USC Trojans (9-4 SU, 6-7 ATS) vs. Fresno State Bulldogs (11-1 SU, 5-7 ATS)
Royal Purple Las Vegas Bowl
Date/Time: Saturday, December 21, 2013 at 3:30PM EST
Where: Sam Boyd Stadium, Las Vegas, Nevada
TV: ABC
By Loot, NCAA Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Point Spread: Southern Cal -5.5/FSU +5.5
Over/Under Total: 62
Bet your Trojans/Bulldogs pick and ALL your football (and hoops!) games at -105 odds; not the spendy -110 that your bookie has been socking you all these years! Find this valuable money saving offer at 5Dimes.
On Saturday, December 21 at Sam Boyd Stadium in Las Vegas, The USC Trojans take on the Fresno State Bulldogs. Both teams are in the top-25 with Fresno State coming in at 20th and USC 25th. The 11-1 Bulldogs are an underdog to their more celebrated opponent--the 9-4 Trojans.
The Trojans seemed poised to end the season with a bang. They had started getting some wind in their sails under interim coach Ed Orgeron. They beat Stanford en route to winning 6 straight conference games. But in the regular season finale, they lost at home to rivals UCLA, 35-14. It was then announced at the end of the season that USC hired Washington’s Steve Sarkisisan. A jilted Orgeron resigned and it all contributes to making USC look a bit dysfunctional when they should be entering bowl season with a head of steam, considering their season turnaround under Orgeron.
Fresno State went 10-0 to begin the season. With a BCS bowl in the cards, they then lost to sub-.500 San Jose State, allowing 62 points and an obscene 547 yards and 6 touchdown to QB David Fales. They closed strongly, winning the Mountain West Conference Championship by beating a pretty good Utah State team, 24-17. That win was important and allows the Bulldogs to come into this game with the bad taste from the San Jose State in the rearview. 11-1 is pretty darned good and now Fresno looks to punctuate it with a win over a well-regarded fellow west coast team.
Let’s face it--it’s the Royal Purple Las Vegas Bowl. Institutionally, USC is used to a better caliber of bowl game. In bowls on this level, ones played before Christmas, there is sometimes a built-in advantage for the lesser-celebrated school, which is obviously Fresno State. Teams like Fresno State are usually happier to be there. And on the heels of USC losing their coach, the guy who helped turn things around, there may be a feeling in the USC locker-room that the season has already ended. In terms of headspace, the edge would appear to go to Fresno State. This wouldn’t be the first time USC didn’t show up for a low-end bowl game.
DEPOSIT $100, MAKE A $100 BET AND GET A $100 BET FREE AT THE WEB'S BIGGEST SPORTSBOOK: SPORTSBOOK
Even if USC shows up mentally, they have their hands full in the different match-ups. Fresno QB Derek Carr knows how to stretch the pocket and he rarely absorbs sacks. The Trojans can’t afford to struggle pressuring Carr behind his tough offensive line. That front really needs to show up big in this game. USC’s secondary, not a top unit, could be made to look ridiculous in spots against the howitzer arm of Carr and his gifted receivers. The pass-catching corps is deep, only 13 yards from having a trio of 1000-yard receivers in Davante Adams (122-1645-23), Josh Harper (79-1011-13) and Isaiah Burse (94-987-5). That’s a lot of talent for USC to contain. If Carr and his receivers hit a groove, it could be a long day for USC.
A lot of Fresno State’s chances boil down to the performance of Derek Carr. And he should be revved up, with this serving as an NFL audition, of sorts. But the O-line will be big in this game, facing a menacing USC front. The Bulldogs have the top passing offense in the land and average over 45 points per game. But if they are going to do well in this game, Fresno’s “D” needs to find an answer for surging RB Javorius Allen, the Trojans star back who has been on fire in the second-half of the season. The Bulldogs “D” hasn’t been so bad against the run this year. Against the pass, well, that’s another issue. If Cody Kessler starts the game firing on all cylinders and connecting with big-time talent like leading receiver Nelson Agholor and Marqise Lee, watch out. Lee should be looking to make amends for a season that saw the supposed top NFL prospect catch only 2 touchdowns.
USC, despite the coaching carrousel and suffering through a season where they got pretty low into the valley, still has a chance to notch a 10-win season by beating an 11-1 team. It would be a good way to build up steam for next season, which begins with this very same Fresno State team, oddly enough. Fresno State, meanwhile, is looking for the icing on the cake following their first outright conference championship in over 20 seasons. And to do that by beating a fellow California team that usually gets a ton more attention would be very satisfying to coach Tim DeRuyter and his squad.
It’s always hard when you have two teams from such divergent conferences. Would Fresno State be 9-4 against the teams USC has played? It’s hard to say, but you always wonder with teams with better records built against weaker opposition. I just can’t help but think that the way the Trojans ended the year on and off the field isn’t going to pay off for the purposes of what basically amounts to an afterthought-type of bowl game. I’m leaning Fresno.
Loot's Pick to Cover the Royal Purple Las Vegas Bowl Point Spread: I’m taking the Fresno State Bulldogs plus 5.5 points.
