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USC Trojans vs. Stanford Cardinal Point Spread - Prediction

USC Trojans (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS) vs. Stanford Cardinal (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS)
College Football Week 3
Date/Time: Saturday, September 17, 2016 at 8PM EST
Where: Stanford Stadium, Stanford, California
TV: ABC

By Loot, NCAA Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com

Betting Odds: USC +7.5/STAN -7.5
Over/Under Total: Off

The USC Trojans come up north to face the Stanford Cardinal in key week three Pac-12 action. The Cardinal start their '16 season in start-stop-and-go fashion with a week off following their week one 26-13 win over Kansas State. They now have to fire up the engines again for their first conference game of the season. They will be facing a USC team that recovered well from a week one beating at the hands of Alabama with a big 45-7 win over Utah State in their home opener last week. A win over Stanford would really put some distance between Southern Cal and their week one embarrassment.

Stanford's first performance of the season was a mixed bag with both positive and negative signs. Under center is senior quarterback Ryan Burns, who takes over after the long tenure of Kevin Hogan. On offense, there were fireworks. Heisman frontrunner Christian McCaffrey showed he is worthy of the hype, several times running wild on the field. He ran for 126 yards, caught 7 balls, and was a terror on special teams with an electric TD return called back for holding. Burns connected heavily with WR Michael Rector, who looks to take on a bigger role this season. All in all, Burns was fairly efficient, going 14-for-18 with a TD and no picks. Not great, but a decent debut.

If you remember how Stanford opened last season with a loss to Northwestern, they don't always hit the ground running at the beginning of a season. In other words, basing your evaluation of a Cardinal team based on week one action is not a good move. Especially with a new man under center for the first time since Hogan took over for Andrew Luck, some growing pains are to be expected. At the same time, something seemed missing against Kansas State, They did what they were supposed to do, but were somewhat fortunate at the same time. A few missed calls and a bounce here and there, it easily could have been a different game and result. After a solid first half, the Stanford offense struggled to gain much foothold. Late in the game, McCaffrey broke another long one to put the game away, but up until that point, they had only 22 yards of offense the whole second half.

As is usually the case when the Stanford offense struggles, the defense bailed them out to some extent in their first game. The Cardinal "D" had KSU quarterback Jesse Ertz in knots the whole game, registering 8 sacks, a safety, and a pair of turnovers. The question for the purposes of this game is whether that defense can have the same impact against some of the more high-powered offenses they face in a conference known for moving the ball and high-scoring. The Stanford defense took a step back last year and with 7 returning starters, is expected to be better this season. They may have to be. With experience and a lot returning firepower, they should look more like they did a few years ago, which is bad news for opposing offenses.

USC was really beaten badly in week one, the first time they did not score a touchdown in a game in nearly 2 decades. While a win over Utah State was expected and won't count for a ton at the end of the day, it was important for this team to get something in the way of some positive developments after a deflating opener to the season. In week two, we saw some of the things that had people excited about the Trojans start to manifest.

Max Browne is the starting quarterback, while Sam Darnold comes in for spot duty and threw two TD passes on Saturday. Browne was far sharper in his second start, going 23-for 30 with a couple of TD tosses. JuJu Smith Schuster caught two TD passes and is coming alive. Darreus Rogers caught a career-high 7 passes. A cabaret of backs combined for 178 yards on the ground. Ronald Jones had to leave the game early with a rib injury and we'll see how that develops. In the first two games, the duo of Jones and Justin Davis hasn't really materialized, considering both were near 1000 yards rushing last season.

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The Utah State offense isn't that great, but for the USC "D" to hold them scoreless until late in the third quarter and give up just one total score is a good rebound for a group that was really lit up against Alabama in their first game. They held the Aggies to a very manageable 253 yards of total offense and only 49 on the ground, effectively stuffing up top Utah St. back Devante Mays. That qualifies as a positive development after getting gashed on the ground in week one against the Tide. Also, DB Adoree Jackson, a multi-way threat, once again made his presence felt on special teams with a punt return for a touchdown.

These teams both have a lot of new elements in place, but there are enough pieces still in place from last year to make their two matchups relevant. They first played in the regular season in the third game of the year, just like this season. At home, the Trojans lost, 41-31. Then in the conference title game at Levi's Stadium, Stanford equaled their 41-point total from the previous game, beating SC, 41-22. With new quarterbacks on both teams, those results might not mean as much as one might think, but there were some things in those games that could resurface this week. I see Stanford as the more complete team and a cut above and being well-rested, they might be poised to impress in week three. I'm leaning toward the Cardinal in this one.

Loot's Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I'm betting on the Stanford Cardinal minus 7.5 points. Tired of your credit card not working for sportsbook deposit? End that problem today by signing up and betting the Trojans vs. Cardinal game at Bovada Sportsbook where your credit card WILL work and where you'll receive a generous 100% sign-up bonus!

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