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USC Trojans vs. Utah Utes Point Spread - Pick

USC Trojans (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS) vs. Utah Utes (3-0 SU, 1-2 ATS)
College Football Week 4
Date/Time: Friday, September 23, 2016 at 9PM EST
Where: Rice-Eccles Stadium, Salt Lake City, Utah
TV: Fox Sports One

By Loot, NCAA Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com

Betting Odds: USC +1.5/UTAH -1.5
Over/Under Total: 47

The USC Trojans come into Salt Lake City to face the Utah Utes in Pac-12 action in week four on Friday night. USC hasn't gotten off to the start they envisioned, losing their second game of the season on Saturday in a non-competitive 27-10 loss to the Stanford Cardinal. After a 52-6 loss to Alabama in week one, USC has shown they might not be ready for prime-time. They did beat Utah State 45-7 in week two, but they've fallen flat on their face against the two really good teams they've played. Utah is off to a 3-0 start and as is usually the case, they've done it quietly. A 34-17 road win over San Jose State on Saturday has Utah ready as they begin their Pac-12 conference schedule.

USC had a lot of returning pieces, but with Cody Kessler departing, they have turned to Max Browne, who will need to grow into the gig. It looks like the Trojans will turn to redshirt freshman Sam Darnold, who is more of a dula;-threat guy. With a pair of good backs from last season with Ronald Jones and Justin Davis returning, the run game was supposed to be a strength and while a little better in week three, they haven't been making much of an imprint on the games. There is also talent in the receiving crew with JuJu Smith-Schuster, who has been held quiet with the Sothern Cal aerial attack in a funk. Against Alabama and Stanford, they scored one combined touchdown.

At a quarterback factory like USC, it's unusual for them to have issues at that position. They might be in one of those in-between years. The junior Browne is 6'5" with obvious talent, but he'll need time to warm into shape and a 1-2 start with neither loss being close can't be a confidence-booster. Freshman Sam Darnold has been coming in to spell and will now be ore snaps. Still, with Browne not going over 200 yards in any of his 3 starts, the leash might be getting shorter. The kid certainly hasn't been eased into action, with games against 'Bama and Stanford, with neither coming at home.

On Saturday, the USC defense wasn't so awful, at least nothing like the group that gave up 52 to Alabama in week one. They allowed 27 poishowing what he can do with more snaps. But a lot of what happened on Saturday was a result of Christian McCaffrey's handiwork—a part of doing business when you play the Cardinal. They held Stanford QB Ryan Burns to just 109 yards through the air. Other than McCaffrey, they gave up just one big play. The defense was a bit easy to manipulate with trickery in the run-game, including a 56-yard reverse run with their receiver. But with an offense that only converted four third downs on the night, the defense's performance might considered a small step forward.

Utah shut out Southern Utah in week one, before scoring a nice win over in-state rival BYU, 20-19, when a BYU two-point conversion after a last-second TD failed. On Saturday, Utah came into San Jose and emerged a 34-17 winner to go to 3-0. Things get a little more serious as conference play begins for them this week. On Saturday, Utah didn't really get the upper hand against a gritty home SJSU team until close to the half, eventually pulling away for the easy win. Behind center for the Utes is Washington transfer Troy Williams. Despite 3 picks against BYU and another one against the Spartans last week, he's a talented player who could make some things happen with this offense.

As is usually the case, the Utah ground-game was key, with Troy McCormick, Armand Shyne, and Zack Moss all running for touchdowns. Shyne and Moss were both over 90 yards and a multi-pronged attack like that can really pay dividends. Receiver Tim Patrick has sprung to life this season early and had 121 yards and a touchdown against San Jose State. Eight different receivers caught passes from Williams, as the Utes posted 456 yards of total offense.

The real star of the team on Saturday was the Utah defense. With ten sacks, they made sure the San Jose State offense would cool down after a fast start. They forced three turnovers and that kind of difference-making defensive play can really carry a team a long way. Utah can really bring the heat up-front, which helps the secondary, which picked off two balls on Saturday and had 6 already in the young season.

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Last season, the Utes were 6-0 and ranked highly after beating Michigan, Oregon, and Cal. They went to face USC on the road and lost 42-24. Turnovers were key, with one pick returned for a TD. With mistakes and the USC offense clicking, it was a long day for the Utes. They're banking on a new-look offense giving USC more trouble this time around, in addition to a fearsome front that they hope will make life hard on a USC offense that hasn't exactly hit the ground running this season.

In games against Alabama and Stanford, a lot of teams can be made to look worse than they really are. Ok, so USC is maybe not as good as we (trying hard to not sound like the late Dennis Green here) thought they were, but this is a time in the season where they could be underrated. While we don't want to underrate them on the basis of losses to a pair of really good teams, it's always hard to not underrate Utah. They rely on a sound offense with really good defense, along with solid coaching, resourcefulness, and grit. Those teams are always easy to overlook. I see them overcoming USC for the big home win.

Loot's Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I'm betting on the Utah Utes minus 1.5 points. Tired of your credit card not working for sportsbook deposit? End that problem today and bet the Trojans vs. Utes game from the comfort of your own home by signing up at Bovada Sportsbook where your credit card WILL work and where you'll receive a generous 100% sign-up bonus!

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