Virginia Cavaliers (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS) vs. Oregon Ducks (1-0 SU, 0-1 ATS)
College Football Week 2
Date/Time: Saturday, September 10, 2016 at 10:30PM EST
Where: Autzen Stadium, Eugene, Oregon
TV: ESPN
By Loot, NCAA Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Betting Odds: UVA +24.5/ORE -24.5
Over/Under Total: 70.5
The Virginia Cavaliers travel to Eugene for a week two matchup with the Oregon Ducks on Saturday. Oregon was successful in their week one matchup, a layup win against UC Davis, 53-28. They started slow, but eventually got that offense untracked under new quarterback Dakota Prukop. Virginia failed in week one, losing to FCS opponent Richmond. More troubling is that it wasn't even that close, with the favored Cavaliers losing, 37-20. Going on the road to face Oregon is hardly a good way to get well and we will see what the beleaguered Cavaliers can come up with for week two.
It was a really hard debut for new Virginia head coach Bronco Mendenhall, who left a good gig at BYU to take the Cavaliers gig. Richmond is a good team, but you have to beat FCS teams at home—plain and simple. It's just a demoralizing way to begin a season. The offense looked flatter than usual. With Matt Johns transferring, the starting QB duties fall into the hands of Kurt Benkert. The junior wasn't awful statistically, going 26-for-34 with 264 yards and three TD scores, but he didn't get much help from his running game and certainly not his defense.
Mendenhall should get this offense more on-point, but his expertise is defense and one would have expected better on that front. On offense, they have some decent returning pieces, including their top two backs from last season—Taquan Mizzell and Albert Reid. Mizzell was over 700 yards rushing and receiving last season, but was kept strangely quiet by the Richmond defense. A few role receivers from last season made their presence felt in week one, with Keeon Johnson and Olamide Zaccheaus contributing in week one. Still, with a new offense being worked into a program with a lot of returning starters, some growing pains were expected. But to get your clock cleaned by Richmond? Yikes!
There are some pieces on defense that could pay off down the line for Virginia, but the week one showing against Richmond showed that this "D" just might not have the horses at the end of the day. When Richmond runs the ball effectively, it's not a ringing endorsement for your D-line. Truth is, the Virginia defensive line is pretty thrown-together, utterly stripped of experienced personnel in the offseason. And the secondary showed it still has a lot of questions to answer after giving up 337 yards to Richmond's Kyle Lauletta, including three TD strikes.
One would have to assume that Mendenhall's coaching prowess will at some point resonate with the Virginia program. At the same time, he isn't inheriting the best situation and it will take time for his imprint to be felt. Right now, he takes over a roster that has underachieved in a big way. And that especially pertains to a defense that should be a lot better than it is. And it's been that way for a while now. Prized recruits have not delivered—plain and simple. And Mendenhall might need time to recruit before he can whip this "D" into shape, as he has done in the past.
After dishing out so much criticism to Virginia, it's only fair to point out that Oregon didn't look all that wonderful in week one. Winning by 25 points, on the surface, hardly seems like cause for alarm. But they were 48-point favorites against their FCS opponents and allowed 28 points, fell behind early, and allowed a 300+-yard passing performance from a UC Davis quarterback. Then again, judging a team like Oregon based on a lukewarm win over an unthreatening opponent in week one isn't likely to paint an accurate picture. They won and did so comfortably. If anything was to be ascertained from late-season Pac-12 action last season was that the Ducks could be worth watching in 2016.
The Ducks got one year out of Vernon Adams in '15, as they now turn to Dakota Prukop. The Montana State transfer was good on Saturday, going 21-for-30 with 271 yards and three TD throws. There are some familiar weapons at his disposal, including one of the best running backs in the conference in Royce Freeman, who ran for two touchdowns against Davis. The aerial package has a chance to be really good, with Darren Carrington, Johnny Mundt, Pharaoh Brown, and RB Tony Brooks-James.
This Ducks' offense has a certain amount of institutionalized excellence, where the individual pieces aren't so important, with it being all about the system. But we'll see. At QB, they go from Mariota to Adams to a player in Prukop who is good, but is without the hype of his two predecessors. The line lost a lot of key personnel and you'd think they would reload well, but you never know. Small drops in quality at QB and the O-line are things that will likely show up later down the line.
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Early results on the Oregon defense weren't all that positive. This is the first year for new defensive coordinator Brady Hoke. He has turned defenses around before and has his hands full with this unit. Last season, they gave up a ghastly 37.5 points per game. Six of the front 7 departs, leaving Hoke to work with a young crew and an overall unit not accustomed to much success. And their veteran defensive backfield was exploited to some extent by their FCS foe on Saturday. Jalen Jelks had a good game, as did freshman linebacker Troy Dye, who had 11 tackles, a sack, and a blocked FG. For this "D" to take flight under Hoke, they're going to need to continue finding playmakers. Despite the uneven week one performance and personnel losses, don't be so quick to shovel dirt on the Oregon "D" just yet. Hoke should get this group together sooner or later.
Oregon will be looking for a more-thorough performance in week two, with coach Mark Helfrich none too pleased at the overall team performance. Virginia has the potential to be somewhat stingy, but there is a flatness to this team that won't translate well to a cross-country road trip against a high-powered team looking to get fully untracked. At the end of the day, I just don't see Saturday going well for the Cavaliers.
Loot's Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I'm betting on the Oregon Ducks minus 24.5 points. Tired of your credit card not working for sportsbook deposit? End that problem today by signing up and betting the Virginia vs. Oregon game in the comfort of your own home at Bovada Sportsbook where your credit card WILL work and where you'll receive a generous 100% sign-up bonus!
