Washington State Cougars (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS) vs. Boise State Broncos (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS)
College Football Week 2
Date/Time: Saturday, September 10, 2016 at 10:15PM EST
Where: Albertsons Stadium, Boise, Idaho
TV: ESPN2
By Loot, NCAA Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Betting Odds: WSU +11/BSU -11
Over/Under Total: 74
The Washington State Cougars come to Albertsons Stadium to face the Boise State Broncos in week two action. Boise State won and covered the spread with a dominant week one 45-10 win over Louisiana-Lafayette. They showed some of the offensive firepower that was anticipated with some nice returning pieces after a somewhat disappointing 9-win season. For Washington State, week one was a disaster, with a 45-42 loss to Eastern Washington. For a team that made such measurable gains in a 9-win season where they won 6 Pac-12 games, it was a massive setback, but not one from which they can't recover.
One could understand the temptation of blowing off Washington St. based on their week one result. They were beaten by a good team in EWU, a team that might be in the FCS, but is still known for its offensive firepower. There is no way to effectively candy-coat a loss for a team that was favored by 27.5 points, but Eastern Washington is a team that can sneak up on you. One should expect this Mike Leach-led squad to right the ship. And let's not forget, they opened last season with a loss to another FCS team in Portland State and they were able to get their act together and cover the spread for 9 of the next 10 games!
Last season, Washington State was great on the road, going 5-2. They'll need more of that mojo this season. The offense isn't going to be the reason this team takes a step back this season. Quarterback Luke Falk is coming off a season where he threw for over 4500 yards with 38 TD throws. Most of his pieces are back, including his three leading rushers and his top two receivers. Receiver Gabe Marks showed he is ready for another big season after catching 10 balls and two scores on Saturday. Robert Lewis and River Cracraft also returned with more production, with Kyle Sweet and Gerard Wicks catching TD throws. Wicks, who also ran for a score, is also part of their 1-2 punch out of the backfield, joined by Jamal Morrow, who also scored on the ground. Falk had another shimmering statistical line, going 41-for-51 for 418 yards and 4 TD throws.
It's just that the defense was supposed to be better this season. They embraced the 3-4 last season and returned 7 starters to this season's unit. They lost some steam in the pass-rushing category and that looks like it could be a bigger problem area than what was forecasted. A few playmakers on defense developed last season with linebackers Peyton Pellver and Parker Henry, but if they're picking up the slack of a deficient line, they won't be allowed to shine. And the secondary was supposed to be a decent group with a lot of returning pieces from an improved group from last season. If week one was any indication, they have a long way to go. They gave up almost 500 yards to Eastern Washington. Granted, that's what EWU is known for, but that certainly doesn't bode well for this week's matchup.
After not winning ten games for only the second time in a decade, Boise St. is looking to ramp it up some this season. Their offense will be led by Brett Rypien, an emerging star who was excellent last season as a true freshman. The nephew of the former Redskins star, Rypien started the season off in fine fashion, going 22-for-33 for 347 and a pair of touchdown throws. He has a loaded running game with returning leading rusher Jeremy McNichols, joined by Alexander Mattison, who ran for a score. McNichols ran for two touchdowns. McNichols is also a valuable weapon in the passing game, as he caught 3 balls for 98 yards and a touchdown against LA-Lafayette. Thomas Sperbeck is one of the top weapons in the conference and he had 130 yards receiving and a touchdown. New addition WR Dedrick Wilson had 113 yards and a score.
Rypien has a certain intangible quality that Boise State has lacked since the halcyon days of Kellen Moore, when the Broncos were absolutely loaded on offense. A combination of existing vets along with some interesting new pieces has Boise's offense looking really good. Whether they will again get to the point where they're making a national splash remains to be seen, but their offense looks to be the class of the Mountain West. We'll see more of what the full scope of their abilities are in this game—which should be quite a shootout.
Holding their first opponent to 10 points was a good initial sign, but things get a little tougher this week against an explosive Washington State offense. The Boise defensive line has been stripped of most of its experience and will potentially put the rest of the defense in peril if unable to produce a sustainable pass-rush. The middle is stowed away with playmakers Tanner Vallejo and Ben Weaver. A secondary that lost some key components will be stretched on Saturday. There is a lot of potential and depth, but only five starters return to this group and you just never know until you know. We should know more after this game.
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Anyone who judged Washington State too harshly after they opened 2015 with a loss to Portland State wouldn't have been cashing many winning bets. Let's not make that same mistake. Was it disconcerting? Yes. But for whatever reason, they don't open the season strongly. So what? That doesn't mean they're not an ultra-dangerous team that will push a Boise State defense to its limits, while forcing the offense to keep pace. Falk is back with most of his weapons and that's nothing to sneeze at.
With a promising team like Boise State in their home opener in a hard place to play facing a team coming off a loss to an FCS team—it all paints too convenient of a picture, doesn't it? It makes you think that maybe if there was a good value angle, it would be with Washington State. It takes a small leap-of-faith to take them after last week's showing, especially on defense. But in a shootout, I see them keeping pace and covering the spread.
Loot's Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I'm betting on the Washington State Cougars plus 11 points. Did you know... that you could be wagering on the Washington State vs. Boise State game at discounted odds? There's a better than good chance that you're laying -110 odds (or more) with your book. Stop overpaying TODAY by making the switch to 5Dimes Sportsbook! You will be so glad that you did!
