Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS) vs. Alabama Crimson Tide (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS)
College Football Week 2
Date/Time: Saturday, September 10, 2016 at 3:30PM EST
Where: Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, Alabama
TV: ESPN 2
By Loot, NCAA Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Betting Odds: WKU +28/ALA -28
Over/Under Total: 61.5
The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers come into Tuscaloosa to face the top-rated defending champion Alabama Crimson Tide on Saturday in week two action. WKU did was asked of them in week one with a dominant 46-14 win over the Rice Owls. Last season, WKU was Conference-USA champions with a 12-win campaign. That's not quite as small an accomplishment as some might think, as it was a pretty dense conference last season. We'll see what they can do in a completely different context against the Tide. It was hard to find anything to criticize from the Tide in week one, as they romped over the USC Trojans, 52-6. It was a dominant week one showing against a ranked team for the defending national champions.
Western Kentucky lost star QB Brandon Doughty after last season and have turned over the reigns to South Florida transfer Mike White. Despite a few uneven seasons with the Bulls, White certainly looked the part in week one, going 25-for-31 with 517 yards. And as was his wont in South Florida, he didn't give up the ball. Some of the usual suspects in the high-powered Hilltoppers offense were in full-flight in week one, with Anthony Wales scoring twice on the ground. Their top two receivers from last season had big games, as Taywan Taylor went for 165 yards, while Nicholas Norris had 147 yards and a pair of touchdown grabs.
Last season, the Hilltoppers defense was a much-improved unit. Only four starters return from that group. They looked good overall in allowing just 14 points to Rice in week one, but that was probably not the most reliable compass on what to expect here. And there were times when watching WKU beat Rice that you could project some bad things against an offense that has its act more together.
While there are questions on defense, the real question for the purposes of this matchup and covering the spread is the offense. Whether they score 3 or 24 points is what's going to decide who goes to the windows to get paid. Mike White was nice against Rice. He has two proven backs in Wales and De'Wayne Ferby and a pair of dynamite receivers in Taylor and Norris, along with a line that has some good experience. Last season, they actually beat an SEC team in Vanderbilt, while being vaguely competitive with LSU before losing by 28. This is a tough matchup and QB White will see his numbers drop precipitously this week. How well will they hang in there with the Tide?
Alabama looked great last Saturday with the massive stomping of a good Southern Cal bunch at AT&T Stadium in Texas. True freshman Jalen Hurts had two passing touchdowns, while using his legs to score twice in his Crimson Tide debut. With Derrick Henry gone, a new monster in the backfield was needed and it looks like Damien Harris might be up for the task, gaining 138 yards on just 9 carries. RB Bo Scarborough added a TD run. Through the air, ArDarius Stewart was dynamic, scoring twice as he gained 113 yards on the day. Transfer Gehrig Dieter made his presence felt with a 45-yard touchdown reception. OJ Howard is back in the mix. They didn't even barely use star receiver Calvin Ridley, who should get more involved this week.
The QB situation is a bit up in the air for the Crimson Tide. Freshman Blake Barnett started the game, but was pulled for Hurts after a slow start. He later returned and played well, adding a TD score of his own. They basically are handing the keys of a defending national championship team off to a freshman—it's just unclear on who that freshman will be. Normally, having so many new and young faces in key spots would be a cause for concern, but since when has the 'Bama program had trouble reloading?
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The Tide defense looked ready to hit the ground running, didn't they? The scary-looking USC offense was effectively grounded and held to a meager pair of field goals. Alabama held USC to under 200 total yards on the game, stuffing the run to the tune of 64 yards on 30 carries. It was the first time USC failed to score a TD in a game in nearly 20 years. This is a unit that was completely dominant last season and after holding a ranked team to almost nothing on a neutral field, it doesn't look like a ton has changed. Again, you'd normally be alarmed when a team loses the core of their leadership, but that's not necessarily the case with Alabama. With guys like Cyrus Jones, Eddie Jackson, Marlon Humphrey (pick-six on Saturday), Da'Shawn Hand, Da'Ron Payne, Dalvin Tomlinson, along with a top-notch group of youngsters, don't bank on too much deterioration from last season's unit. This is the first season without coordinator Kirby Smart for quite some time, but initial signs were completely positive.
For the purposes of covering spreads, it's not about how great Alabama is, but how they approach games like this. Let's face it, Western Kentucky is unlikely to arouse the highest sense of urgency from this team, but sometimes it doesn't matter. You can go two-deep throughout all phases of the team and the dominance would still be evident. Still, in Bama's last 6 games when favored by 30 or more points, they covered the spread only once. That's hardly a dependable sample pool, but that's always the risk when betting on big favorites. WKU is no pushover and Alabama is likely to be shot out of a cannon only to a certain extent. It's a home opener and they'll be pumped up, but will they be at high-alert for all 4 quarters? Can the Hilltoppers get on the board a few times and make covering a problem for the Tide? Is a road trip to Tuscaloosa asking too much? I think there are still enough players fighting for playing time across a lot of different positions to the point where there won't be a lot of let-up in this game. I see 'Bama cruising to a dominant win.
Loot's Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I'm betting on the Alabama Crimson Tide minus 28 points. Bet the Western Kentucky vs. Alabama game for FREE by taking advantage of a massive 100% sign-up bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $500 at GTBets!
