Wisconsin Badgers (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) vs. Michigan State Spartans (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS)
College Football Week 4
Date/Time: Saturday, September 24, 2016 at 12PM EST
Where: Spartan Stadium, East Lansing, Michigan
TV: Big Ten Network
By Loot, NCAA Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Betting Odds: WIS +6/MSU -6
Over/Under Total: 42.5
The Wisconsin Badgers come to East Lansing to face the Michigan State Spartans, as both teams start their Big Ten Conference schedules. It is a battle of ranked teams that could have a lot of ramifications down the line. Wisconsin enters this matchup at 3-0, following a 23-17 win over Georgia State. After two big wins and covers, it was the first chink in the armor we've seen from the Badgers, who trailed in the 4th quarter, despite being robust 35.5-point favorites. Michigan State, following a week-long break after an easy win over Furman, smashed Notre Dame in week three. The 36-28 score doesn't even do justice. Michigan St. served notice that they're still for real.
Wisconsin served notice in game one that they were legit this season with a 16-14 win over LSU. They were 12.5-point dogs to their ballyhooed opponents, scoring a key win to jumpstart their season. The next week saw the Badgers batter Akron, 54-10, as they covered the spread with room to spare once again. In their third straight home game, perhaps they grew a bit complacent or were caught looking ahead to Michigan State this week, but whatever the case, they were far from impressive.
Against Georgia State, the Badgers offense was stuck in reverse. Quarterback Bart Houston labored in breaking through against a Georgia State defense that had given up 48 points to Air Force the previous week. Late in the third quarter, Houston was pulled for freshman Alex Hornibrook, who led a pair of late scoring drives to help the Badgers avert what would have been a most bizarre setback. But what might be the most bizarre development is the change of the Wisconsin offense from one week to the next. They were coming off two easy wins and covers and everything looked great. Now suddenly, they're dealing with a renewed quarterback battle.
Wisconsin is also dealing with some injury problems. Their top two running backs Taiwan Deal and Corey Clement (both questionable) missed most of the GSU game. TE Troy Fumagalli (questionable) was hurt in the first quarter. Their statuses will need to be watched during the week as they head into Saturday. On one hand, you don't want to get carried away over one subpar game in a game they still managed to win. But their offense looks to be going through some identity issues as they get into this crucial part of the season. Since head coach Paul Chryst came in last season, they have gotten away from their run-game and are now dealing with injuries to their best two backs. They're not really built to air it out, so we'll see where they turn from here.
The Badgers' defense will likely be needed now more than ever. They have been key thus far in 2016, playing a big role in their win over LSU in week one. They make plays at just the right time and have a knack for the dramatic, as they showed with a late pick against LSU to sew up the win. Against Akron, the defense was in control the whole way. And in week three, the defense allowed the team to work through numerous offensive issues to win. All of Georgia State's points came toward the end of the third quarter into the early fourth quarter. Other than that, the defense was again on-point and stifled all late GSU drives, while Hornibrook led the team back for the too-close-for-comfort win at home against their Sun Belt opponent.
Michigan State's week three performance over Notre Dame was a revelation for those wondering if Mich St. had any chance of being in the mix again this season. Playing on week one, followed by a week off can be a tricky spot to be in, but the Spartans rose to the occasion in a big way. Notre Dame took a 7-0 lead into the second quarter, before things got sideways for the Irish. In less than a quarter and a half, Michigan State put up five touchdowns to take a 36-7 lead. Three Notre Dame touchdowns put them back in the game, but make no mistake, Michigan State took over that game en route to the win. Next time they build up a lead, they'd be well-advised to keep their nose to the grindstone, as it looked like they took the rest of the night off mentally after building a 36-7 third-quarter lead.
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Against Michigan State, quarterback Tyler O'Connor threw two touchdowns on 19-for-26 passing and looked in command in his second start since Connor Cook departed. Running back Gerald Holmes added two touchdown runs, including a 73-yard scamper. Running back LJ Scott added 98 yards on the ground and a touchdown. Even O'Connor added some useful runs. With 501 total yards against the Irish, this offense doesn't look so bad in the immediate wake of Connor Cook's departure, along with a lot of other key pieces.
The defense is still hard to evaluate this early in the season. They were decent against overmatched Furman, with not much to ascertain in that matchup. Against Notre Dame, they gave up 344 yards to Irish QB DeShone Kizer. And those late three touchdowns were a cause for alarm in how quickly it happened. But you can't judge a team too harshly for letting their foot off the petal after getting out to a 29-point third quarter lead. And with Notre Dame looking like they were going to score late, this "D" stepped up and was able to reverse horrible momentum against them. That's a good sign. With all their returning experience and talent, this is a group that should prove to be dependable this season.
It'd be nice for the Badgers if they were crescendoing into this spot, but with the injuries and personnel swapping, they come across as an unstable unit right now. Contrast that to a well-rested Michigan State who came back after the week off and exploded on Notre Dame, despite the sour ending. Michigan State is for real and Wisconsin enters this tough road game in a less-than-ideal condition to spring the upset. I picture a big win my Michigan State.
Loot's Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I'm betting on the Michigan State Spartans minus 6 points. Tired of your credit card not working for sportsbook deposit? End that problem today by signing up and betting the Badgers vs. Spartans game at Bovada Sportsbook where your credit card WILL work and where you'll receive a generous 100% sign-up bonus!