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2017 MLB Pitcher Props: Season Wins

2017 MLB Pitcher Props: Season Wins

By Loot, MLB Handicapper, Lootmeister.com

In this bet, we take an individual pitcher who will be posted with a certain number of wins and simply project whether the pitcher will go over or under that amount. It's a pretty straightforward bet as far as understanding it. At the same time, it packs a lot of mileage into one bet, being that you will be in the game with a vested interest each time the pitcher(s) you chose grace the mound. It's a good way for you to capitalize off your observations. Perhaps last season, you saw pitchers you senses were either ready to blossom or start waning. And this bet is one of the rare opportunities for you to capitalize off that. Just betting on one game presents a short window where anything can happen. But a season-long bet like this can really allow your observations to resonate fully.

The stat of "wins" itself has been looked at differently throughout baseball history. While almost all pitchers with a sparkling won-loss record are good pitchers, the same can't always be said for pitchers with substandard won-loss records. With all the different specialized stats brought into the game, we've found far better ways to gauge a pitcher's effectiveness than looking at how many wins he has. So when forming bets in this category, we have to look beyond the pitcher. It's a stat that is heavily reliant on things that have nothing to do with the pitcher.

So when trying to gauge whether a pitcher will surpass a certain number of wins or not, we need to look at other things. The lineup supporting that pitcher is a key concern. Again, many pitchers would have standout W-L records if given run support. When making your pick, ask yourself about the run-support that pitcher is due to receive. Looking at other things like team defense along with the lineups will enhance your pick when making season totals props.

Other things to take into consideration for these bets are injuries and a team's bullpen. Pitchers that typically miss time in a season might have trouble hitting their projected number. Or maybe a pitcher is generally healthy, but has had a few major injuries that caused his season to be a wash. An injury-prone pitcher could get good value, but that threat of getting hurt always looms. And when forming these bets, we should look at the strength of the team's bullpen. A pen that blows leads will obviously be a hindrance in this category if going "over," where it's all about chalking wins.

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It's natural to be optimistic before the season starts, not just for your favorite team, but in bets like this, as well. A lot of us tend to want to go "over" in a lot of picks. So we need to make sure we're not looking at the good, while ignoring the bad. And this bet also comes with a "5 game rule," which is to protect the sportsbook and even the bettor. If the starting pitcher you select does not make an appearance in the team's first five games, the bet is "no action." Let's take a look at these pitching prop bet odds and see what we can come up with for the 2017 season!

Chris Sale, Boston Red Sox
Total: 15.5 Wins (Over -135, Under +105)
Pick: Under. Undeniably a top pitcher, has he maybe been overrated a tad? He doesn't seem to be hitting a new gear at an age when you'd suspect just that from a young pitcher. He's on a better team and that could get him more wins, but in five seasons, he's surpassed 15.5 wins just twice. We're taking the good price on under.

Madison Bumgarner, San Francisco Giants
Total: 15.5 Wins (Over -115, Under -115)
Pick: Under. With 51 wins in the last three seasons, one would tend to think "over." He's solid, still developing at 27, and doesn't miss any time. Still, he only had 15 wins last season despite a great 2.74 ERA and we think a lot needs to go right to get him to 16 wins this season.

Carlos Carrasco, Cleveland Indians
Total: 13.5 Wins (Over -115, Under -115)
Pick: Under. Certainly a talented pitcher who could surpass this number with room to spare. But he's 30 and his career-high in wins is 14. He misses a lot of time and has put forth a year resembling a full season just once in his career.

Jake Arrieta, Chicago Cubs
Total: 15.5 Wins (Over +100, Under -130)
Pick: Over. With 40 wins in the past two seasons, Arrieta has worked himself into a premier starter in the National League. On the world champion Cubs, he will still get robust support and should sail to 16 wins or more this season.

Jon Lester, Chicago Cubs
Total: 15 Wins (Over -115, Under -115)
Pick: Over. When Lester is able to put forth a full season, he can generally be expected to surpass the 15-win total. And lately, he's been healthy, is on a great team, and is coming off a 19-win season. At 33 and with some past health issues, combined with less urgency from a defending championship team, there are possible hangs in the fence, but we still like "over."

Noah Syndergaard, New York Mets
Total: 13.5 Wins (Over -105, Under -125)
Pick: Under. Last season for the Mets, Syndergaard had everything go right and was able to register just 14 wins. One of the top young power pitchers in the game, the urge is to project continued statistical blossoming, but we see it being hard for Syndergaard to register a bunch of wins this season.

Yu Darvish, Texas Rangers
Total: 12.5 Wins (Over -115, Under -115)
Pick: Under. While we certainly don't hope anything bad happens to Darvish, it's hard to not notice how injury-prone he is. In half a season last year, it looked like the injuries had taken at least a slight toll. He could even stay healthy, do pretty good, and still fail to surpass this number. We think more scenarios favor this going "under."

Rick Porcello, Boston Red Sox
Total: 14.5 Wins (Over -105, Under -125)
Pick: Under. Prior to last season's Cy Young Award-winning 22-win season, Porcello had surpassed 14.5 wins just once. Could his 2016 season be like Bob Welch's one-year explosion? Maybe not, but we see a far-less charmed season for Porcello this season.

Cole Hamels, Texas Rangers
Total: 13.5 Wins (Over -105, Under -135)
Pick: Over. He's 33 and perhaps a notch below elite, but if there's been much falloff since Hamels came to Texas, we certainly haven't seen it. With a 22-6 record in parts of two seasons with the Rangers, Hamels will benefit from being on a good team and cruise to another solid season.

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Gerrit Cole, Pittsburgh Pirates
Total: 12.5 (Over -105, Under -125)
Pick: Over. Inconsistency and injuries make him a dicey proposition, but the young power-pitcher is still only 26 and could have this number crushed by August. We're taking a leap of faith in terms of his health and on good the Pirates might be in terms of providing support, but we like "over."

Aaron Sanchez, Toronto Blue Jays
Total: 12.5 Wins (Over -115, Under -115)
Pick: Over. The 24-year old was 15-2 last season with the Blue Jays. He is quietly becoming one of the top young pitchers in the game. The amount of no-decisions are alarming, but this could be the last time we see Sanchez with this low of a total for a long time.

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