Is April the Best Time of the Baseball Season for Betting:
By Loot, MLB Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
If bettors knew how rife MLB is with opportunity at the beginning of the season, they might be more liable to hit the ground running. A lot of bettors aren’t prepared for baseball betting when the season begins. They’re still developing their opinions, finding out which players have changed teams, and just starting to get their bearings. The offseason was long and a lot of sports have taken place in the interim. Our heads be a little cloudy come late-March and early April. And if you are a fan of other sports, you were probably swept away in March Madness. The beginning of the MLB season can sometimes almost catch us by surprise.
Still, this is a time for bettors to capitalize on some good betting opportunities. The market is not yet stabilized and when that’s the case, there are more gaps for sharp bettors to swoop in and take advantage. Here are some of the things that make April a potential gold mine for the enterprising baseball bettor.
Distracted Bookies: March Madness coincides with the beginning of the baseball season. It is the biggest betting frenzy you will see at the books. With gazillions pouring in during that period on college hoops, the bookies’ attention isn’t really on baseball. They’re not watching spring training perhaps as closely as they should. The bookie’s main energy supply is going into college hoops. Then, when the season begins, they’re still coming around a little bit from the haze of March Madness.
With the fact that bookies are still trying to get up to speed, combined with the unsettled nature of the new baseball season, there are going to be more opportunities for the savvy bettor, especially the ones who are looking for good value. You will find a healthy amount of underdogs that are fetching odds that are simply inflated.
Public Perception: With the bookies still unclear on what’s going on and the fact that there is a lot early in a baseball season that is undetermined, public perception plays a huge role early on in the season. The bookie knows there are certain things to count on from the general betting public. They will bet on pitchers who have a high level of prestige. They will give credence to teams that maybe made a big offseason free agent signing. They will bet the teams that were good last year. And they’ll bet on the teams that are favored to win the World Series that year.
So bookies know they needn’t make the odds overly tasty for teams that fit those standards. If last year’s Cy Young winner is throwing, they can jack that money line up a bit and you can find value by betting on the opponent. Sure, teams that were good last year can be good this year. Pitchers that are typically good can continue right on being effective. And the teams that made a slew of big-money signings could very well be better. It’s just that the public blows it out of proportion. In baseball, what is supposed to be good is often times overrated to an extent. Sure, it might be good. It’s just not always as good as it’s being made out to be. Teams might not hit the ground running. Star pitchers may need time warming the whip up. Free agents may need a period to get acclimated to their new environments.
Where to Find Opportunity: This doesn’t mean to just blindly bet against teams that are favored to win the World Series or to bet against the top-ten finishing starters in the Cy Young voting from the previous season. Though you probably wouldn’t do too badly if you were to do that. The key is to form your own insight. Follow spring training to see what teams are on the upswing or downturn--and which pitchers are close to peak form and which ones will need a group of starts to come around.
Look for bets where the odds are poisoned by public perception. You see, for example, a team that did well last season and has a starter who is coming off a good season. But you figure that team lost a few key guys, that the pitcher sometimes has a bad year or starts off seasons poorly, or looked awful in spring training games. There are going to be a lot of angles where some solid handicapping can yield some great value picks, especially when picking against teams that are getting too much credit for things that aren’t tied up so much in reality, but more in public perception.
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