Free Sports Picks: Home NFL CFB NBA CBB MMA Boxing
LootMeister Baseball Picks
Online SportsbooksBest Sportsbook Bonuses
GTBets

Danger of Betting MLB Favorites

Baseball Betting: The Danger of Betting MLB Favorites

By Loot, MLB Handicapper, Lootmeister.com

Those who habitually bet on favorites aren’t the most in-tune lot when it comes to seeking out the best value for their wagering money. A lot of typical favorite bettors will see a team at say -220 when that team should be -180 at the best. They bet it anyway. That’s a mentality that will get anyone in trouble. When consistently betting on favorites that are bigger favorites than they should be, you simply cannot win.

Let’s always keep in mind that the best bettors are the ones who get the best value on their wagering buck. That might mean taking an underdog at +160 (See: Value of Betting Underdogs) when it should only be in the +120 region. That means taking a team that is +280 when in reality, it should only be +220. In other words, it doesn’t mean betting on favorites. When getting a price for teams that are actually better than what they should be getting--that’s one of the ways how winning is done. That means even betting on teams where you think, chances are, they’re going to lose.

That might sound counterproductive. Bet on teams you think will lose? Why do that? Well, first of all, this is not a sport where your opinion means that much anyway. There are 162 games per season for each team. The best teams lose 60 games and the worst win at least that much. That’s the definition of parity. The result is that there is hardly any surprise with any MLB result.

So over a long year, the power of your predictions will probably cancel out. Try looking for good value and focus less on half-baked predictions. When you are consistently getting better value than what the real value of your bets really are--that will add up to winnings over time. Where we go wrong is when we get hypnotized by these ideas of who the favorite and underdog is.

As bettors, we are also fans. We see a lot of stuff out there on the favorites--on ESPN, the newspapers, the internet, etc. It pounds it into our heads that a “good team” is something other than what it is. And in baseball, a good team, while more successful than a losing team, is not that far from those teams. A handful of extra wins here and there is what separates the top teams from the bottom ones.

Don’t expect the same things that make teams great over a season to manifest in a one-game window or even in a week. A team that is in first-place at the end of the season had to grind to get there. It’s not like a college football team flying to a 13-0 record and the national title game. A Major League Baseball team’s status is earned through attrition. It takes consistency. Every two weeks, perhaps they eke out one more win than a team out of playoff contention is able to win. Acknowledge the fickle nature of baseball and the sometimes-imperceptible difference between a playoff team and a team that is out of it.

What does this mean? We should try to shed these informal concepts we all have in the forefront of our minds of who the good teams are, who the OK teams are, and who the bad teams are. That is not the guiding light we should follow. Whatever edge you think you gain by betting on top teams is eaten up with the big odds you are laying on those teams.

Think about that the next time you find yourself betting on a -300 favorite in baseball. To break even making these bets, you need to win 75% of these bets. Name the last team to win 75% of their games. Other than in a few isolated cases, how many pitchers are putting up 75% wins in games they start? Perhaps there are some. But you will see -300 more a lot more than you will see a team or a pitcher with a winning percentage worthy of fetching a number so big.

Even with a modest favorite of -160, you have to win 61.4% of those just to break even. In 2012, no team even had a 61.4 winning percentage! That tells us that consistently betting on favorites in baseball runs counter to everything we know about how MLB works. It’s a game of failure. The best teams lose 60 or more games. The best hitters fail 7 out of 10 times. And betting on only favorites fails 100% of the time.

Share this article with friends:

Leave a comment:

SAVE BIG MONEY BY BETTING AT -105 REDUCED ODDS!
Quit wasting your hard earned money! Make the switch from -110 to -105 odds today!
Doc's Sports Major League Baseball Picks

Baseball Betting

  • Bovada Sportsbook - Your credit card WILL work here! Deposit from $100-$500 and get a massive 50% sign-up bonus! A huge wagering menu, fast payouts and top notch customer service is what you'll find at one of the web's biggest baseball bookies!
  • GTBets - Offers a 100% initial signup bonus! Deposit $150 and receive a matching $150 bonus! A great way to pad your bankroll before even placing your 1st bet! Great at getting credit cards to work for deposits!
  • World Series Odds - See which teams the bookies are predicting to win the Fall Classic this year and what odds are being offered for your pick to win it all.

MISC.

  • How to Calculate ERA - Loot explains what earned run average is and how to compute this often misunderstood statistic.
  • How to Calculate Batting Average - The stat that all hitters are judged by! We break down the division of hits by at bats.
  • What is Baseball WHIP? - The walks plus hits divided by innings pitch stat is a huge variable when handicapping baseball games. But what is a good WHIP? What's a bad WHIP? Loot explains!
  • Infield Fly Rule Explained - Surely one of the most confusing rules in baseball but yet so simple.
  • Baseball Slang - There are TONS of terms, lingo and jargon that you'll hear during a baseball game that would make absolutely no sense unless you grew up with the game or had done your homework. We define them all here!
  • Baseball Acronyms - A MLB box score is absolutely jam-packed with abbreviations. Get educated here as we define them all! We also added in MLB team abbreviations as well.
  • Baseball Questions - The sport has tons of terminology, jargon and statistics which create many questions. We answer them here!
  • MLB Managerial Changes - In today's world, if a Manager doesn't cut it, they get canned quick. Check out the list of this year's new baseball Skippers.

FOR THE BASEBALL PURIST

  • Baseball Quotes - Famous sayings from popular MLB players, annnouncers and managers.
  • Greatest Baseball Players of All Time - My picks for the all-time best first basemen, second basemen, shortstops, third basemen, left fielders, center fielders, right fielders, right handed pitchers, left handed pitchers and closers.
  • Famous Baseball Players - There's greats and then there's famous players. The difference is that famous MLB players are names that even non-baseball fans are familiar with; Diamond Kings!
  • Triple Crown Winners - List of players who have led the MLB in batting average, homers and RBI's all in the same season.
Reduced Juice Sports Betting 100% Sportsbook Bonus Best Parlay Odds Online