MLB Betting: Important Variables to Keep in Mind
By Loot, MLB Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Before one dips his big toe into the world of major league baseball betting, there are some things to keep in mind. When reminding yourself of some of these key points, you can begin to have a more reasonable view of MLB wagering, as well as how you fit into the whole equation. One thing that needs to be addressed is that we don’t bet for free. We pay for the privilege. How much we pay, however, can vary quite significantly.
One thing we steadfastly endorse is sticking to sides and totals for the most part. In other words, pick winners and bet over-unders. For starters, it’s easier to fathom how a game will go than how little details will unfold in a contest. But even more importantly is the idea of finding good value on your wagers. When making straight bets and wagering on totals, you are being “juiced,” but at a much lower rate than when you venture off the grid and begin making more exotic plays. When a major part of your wagering profile is wrapped up in prop bets, futures, parlays, and run-lines, you are paying a larger commission to bet. Normal juice is tough enough, but it’s really hard to come out ahead when constantly subjecting yourself to big juice.
Let’s also acknowledge the pitfalls when betting on a sport with 162 games per season. That’s ten times more games than an NFL team plays. Obviously, you’re not going to see the same team every night. Over the course of a long season, you see many changes in form. And a team can lose 60 or more games and still be considered the best team in the sport. So even when you’re betting on a great team, they will lose a ton of games.
In 2012, there was only one team that even managed to win more than 60% of their games. That’s a bit unusual for a team sport--that even the best team in the regular season loses 40% of the time. That dynamic needs to be accounted for in our betting and overall expectations. When even the best teams lose over 40% of the time, how much of a surprise is it when they lose? How comfortable can you feel when you’re betting even on a first-place team?
The same applies to players, namely pitchers. Major League Baseball bettors get a warm and comfortable feeling when backing a team with an ace on the mound. But should they? Remember, when an ace is on the mound, the odds will generally be steep. But even the aces regularly fail. Sure, there might be a few pitchers with records that might justify accepting steep odds, like a hurler who is 18-5. But his won-loss record doesn’t indicate his record whenever he starts a game--only the decisions where he becomes the pitcher of record.
The point is that baseball is a game of failure. The best hitters don’t get a hit 70% of the time. The best home run hitters don’t hit a homer in about 80% of the games they play. The best teams are only winning a percentage of games in the high-50’s. What this all means is that the betting man has to calibrate his expectations accordingly.
It’s a long season. Teams can be on or off from one night to the next. With 162 games, you can only count on so much urgency. Sure, they are professionals who are trying hard. Everyone is trying to win games and there will be spots in the season where one game carries more importance than normal. At the same time, the variance in quality of play from one day to the next can be quite great.
Make allowances for this in your betting. Just as a team doesn’t get down in the dumps after a loss or two, we also need to realize that losing is part of the game. Like the power-hitter who goes two weeks without a home run, we need to acknowledge the dry patches we will eventually encounter as well. You’re not going to dominate baseball wagering. That’s not in the cards. Wagering on MLB games is a grind. A marathon. NOT a get rick quick proposition. The only thing we can try to do is simply come out ahead. That takes patience and an awareness that success in MLB betting is proven over the long haul with a lot of bumps along the way.
Something you can do to help increase your chances of making profits is to make sure that you're betting at the site with the best (cheapest/lowest) odds. That would be 5Dimes.
