MLB Betting: Preseason MLB Wagering
By Loot, MLB Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Betting on Major League Baseball in spring training has its positives and drawbacks. As betting men, we should always be looking for an edge, however it may come. Simply put, there are some spots in spring training that offer great wagering value. On the other hand, a lot of bettors are very hesitant about taking a stand during spring training.
There is a long season ahead. We have the grueling 162-game season that lies ahead. Then there’s the postseason. It goes on forever. The games are in the thousands--with 15 games a day for months on end. Many bettors just think there’s enough games coming up that they should be using spring training as a period for information-gathering more than wagering.
The lack of urgency to win games in spring training is also a concern. Even in the regular season when the games actually count, there can varying degrees of urgency. If we bet on a team, we like to see they’re actually trying to win a game with some degree of earnestness. In spring training, winning often times takes a backseat to other things the team is working on to get ready for the real season.
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If a team drops a spring training game, they’re not exactly bummed out about it. No players are hanging their heads because they got beaten in March. When betting on any sport, the issue of effort and urgency is of pinnacle importance. And in spring training, that level of urgency is usually not there.
At the same time, if there is a good move, we should make it. If we want to take a stab at it, here are some of the things we should look for. First of all, you would like to see that a team has a few positions up for grabs. When players are competing for a spot in the lineup, they will be trying hard to impress. A veteran who has his starting spot locked up will be using this time of the year to get ready. Impressing his manager is less of a concern, obviously.
Look for a handful of players who actually have a chance to make the team. Maybe there were a lot of offseason moves, paving the way for some open slots on the team. You want to see a healthy level of competition among the young up-and-coming players who are actually shooting for a spot on a MLB roster. Some teams have their rosters more locked-in, where only a spot or two are really available. In other words, you want to have a situation where players have a reason to try hard.
Spring training wagering forces us to retool our entire handicapping approach. During the regular season, we are taking things like starting pitchers, travel, and schedules into account. In spring training, those things are less of a concern. Starting pitchers have a short leash. Evaluating the starter is problematic, since they’re likely to only throw a few innings. In addition, they are just coming out of mothballs, so you can’t really accurately gauge what you’re going to get in terms of productivity.
Travel is almost rendered moot. With the games taking place in Arizona and Florida, teams are staying in-state, rather than being jettisoned all over the country. In spring training, teams are playing daily and in close distance, so we can’t really take schedule or travel into account in a meaningful way.
There are teams that have great seasons who have winning records in spring training. Then again, there are teams who make it to the postseason, despite having a horrific spring training record. Therefore, we can’t bet on the supposed “better” teams and expect them to produce in spring training. How teams do in spring training is rarely an accurate barometer of what to expect once the games start to count.
Watch spring training. Develop an understanding of the rosters and what the teams are trying to do. We want to look for changes within a team that might give us a leg up for the regular season. If in the midst of our following spring training, we see a good spot, we should take it. But my no means should we be forcing anything. We should be even more patient than when we bet on regular season games, only wagering when we see a clear edge. The season is long and the last thing we want to do is deplete our bankroll on spring training games. Be patient and look for a spot, but don’t do significant damage before we get to the real thing.
