Baseball Betting Systems (Why you should avoid them)
By Loot, Major League Baseball Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
A system is a broad term that in betting refers to a way of thinking that predisposes you to bet a certain way. You just plug in some different variables and the system makes the decision. It’s a way of betting that in large part, removes the actual handicapping out of the equation used to make wagers.
There are a thousand examples of this. It might be something like “always take the home team in the 2nd game of a doubleheader.” Or “always bet against a favorite at -240 or greater.” Or “if the home starting pitcher has a WHIP that’s at least .40 better than the visiting hurler, always take the home team on the run line.” It can be anything. It can get quite convoluted too, as you can see.
The problems with this are numerous. Baseball betting systems are based on past performances. Something is deemed as being more likely to happen on the basis of the past. What happened before is no guarantee that the same thing will continue to happen. What may have been a winning system for the past two seasons can dry up at anytime as well.
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Nothing is likely to get past the bookie for too long. Sure, there are tendencies and even “systems” that may have reaped rewards for an extended period of time. But how was anyone supposed to know when to start betting that? You might have seen that home underdogs were a profitable play in the past month. Big deal. It would have been impossible for anyone to time it. And by the time you notice a pattern, there is a chance it’s ready to stop being a pattern because oddsmakers have adjusted for it or the trend is simply ready to get smacked by Murphy's Law and expire.
The Sportsbooks aren’t in business year after year for not noticing stuff. If they see they’re getting hit with a certain type of play, adjustments will be made to make it less valuable. And then we come stumbling along thinking we’re gonna get on the gravy train, but it already left town.
Relying on baseball betting systems sends the wrong message to your brain. When depending on a system or any kind of pre-disposed way of betting, you’re really telling yourself you can’t cut it at baseball wagering. Your analysis isn’t up to snuff. Your handle on the intricacies of wagering is loose. You need tricks to get over on the bookie. You’re basically admitting you can’t match up wits-wise with the bookie and instead have to rely on gimmickry which is exactly what they want you to do. Why do most sports betting sites offer this info for free? They sure wouldn't offer this to you if it was truly educational.
Systems can become an excuse to not do the work and put in the hours. If all you have to do is scan the games for -240 or bigger favorites or blindly bet on any team that fulfills whatever stipulation the system is calling for, you’ve made it easy on yourself. Everyone else is grinding, handicapping individual games trying to find an edge or some good value.
People will find excuses to avoid work. It’s human nature. Not to mention that with the demands we have in our everyday lives, it’s tempting to save time pouring over baseball stats. We just need to remember what our elders told us--”you get nowhere without hard work.” No matter how much we try to neglect that advice, it always ends up ringing true. Just because we see some people get to the top without hard work, that doesn’t mean we can be that guy. For every person who finagled their way to the top, there are a bunch of others who were forced to grind as hard as they could to scratch and claw their way to glory.
Heck, if something works--go for it. Maybe you can tap into some mojo and just blindly make bets and earn money. It’s hard to believe, however, that anything resembling that can be a profitable long-term play. It may be sheer happenstance that allowed you to win 9 straight bets on -140 to -160 favorites at home with a starting pitcher with a WHIP under 1.20 in his last 5 outings. Or you might have won 7 straight betting on any home pitcher who has held the opposing lineup to a batting average of under .240. It can be anything.
We need to take the points we rely on when betting systems into consideration. Sure, we want to know when a pitcher is good against the guys he’s playing. Or if our starter is in good form recently. Then we also want to take all the other information and put it into the equation, as well. When we start working with a formula, we can start blocking out relevant information and that never got anyone to the top.
There are nearly 5000 games in a baseball season. Each one represents a chance to beat the bookie. Try to isolate which spots are the most advantageous for you (See our articles offering Baseball Betting Tips.) In doing so, realize there is no alternative to doing the work, nor is there a magic formula that exists to make you rich at betting baseball.
After all, when was the last time you knew anybody who got rich quick?