MMA Betting: Timing Your Bets
By Loot, MMA Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Jump on a Fighter's Bandwagon Early
We have all seen a fighter go from nothing into a big-time champion. Sure, there are a lot of fighters who are ballyhooed from a very early stage. But if you look at most of the top fighters in MMA, there was a time when they were relatively unknown. It is during that point where bettors could have wagered on these fighters for extremely good value. But by the time they reach the big-time, you will no longer receive good value on your wager. Everyone knows now.
The key is to get onboard early, to key in on a fighter and begin betting him before his powers are widely recognized by the media and fans. This might contradict some previous advice about being careful about unproven fighters. Well, there is a fine line--where a fighter is right on the cusp on something big. He may not have beaten any great fighters, but perhaps he's beaten some good lesser-known fighters. If he beats a great fighter, he's somewhat proven. But then you will cease to get good value.
Try to hone in on certain guys who are a few or several fights from breaking through to a point where everyone knows the full scope of their abilities. Try to time it to when only you and a small minority of people are onboard. Take Jon Jones, for example. He surely showed a lot of potential right from the get-go, but early in his UFC career, you could still get Jones at a pretty good price. Now? Forget about it. He's facing much better fighters than before, while being favored by ridiculous proportions. You could have bet him against far worse competition at better prices early in his career.
The lesson here is to not wait until it's too late to get on a fighter's bandwagon. For someone to now realize Jon Jones is the truth is not much of a discovery. Everyone knows that by now. And the lack of originality in that thought will be reflected by your profits. You have to put up a house to win a Chevy betting on Jones these days. Try to play the role of a scout. You're not starting a MMA organization, but you're looking for up-and-coming talent that will give you good value on your betting dollar.
Watch for Fighters Jumping Classes
Sometimes a fighter looks really good, but that's because his opponent is not a very good fighter. Sure his talent has something to do with it, but we've all seen a fighter who appeared to be very good not be able to make it work against better opponents. When you see such a fighter and he's dominant in lower organizations or the bottom-feeders of the UFC, exercise caution when that fighter jumps up to fight a top-level guy.
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It's normal to see a dominant or successful fighter and project that he will be able to do the same thing against a top fighter. It's not that they can't do it, but more often than not, a fighter does not look as good when taking sudden jumps in class. You could take a middling UFC fighter right now who has lost his last 3 fights and put him in a lower organization and he would look completely dominant. Put him back in against top UFC talent and he'll go back to looking just OK.
In all forms of fight betting, this is of key importance. A shrewd bettor understands all the different levels within the sport which he is betting. And with the rapid growth of MMA, there are indeed many categories of competition. It's critical to understand a fighter's placement within these levels, based less on your naked-eye observations of his ability, but more on the true quality of opponent he is facing. You might see a fighter use good takedown defense and be able to land crisp strikes and assume that's how it's going to be when he faces a top guy. Usually, it doesn't work out that way. Fighters in the lower rungs of the sport might have potential, but until they transfer it against top talent--they should be regarded as speculative bets.
