Underrated Parts of MMA Wagering
By Loot, MMA Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
MMA excites us for a lot of reasons. Some of those reasons are more obvious, like when a fighter crushes opponents with one strike or is able to turn any situation into a submission opportunity. Those are the kinds of skills that jump off the screen and captivate us. There are other factors that lie just beneath the surface that we also need to acknowledge.
In MMA, certain skills and talents will win fights and get a fighter to a certain level. The range of quality in MMA opposition is vast and wide-ranging, however, requiring fighters to have more in their make-up at some point beyond merely being able to hit hard or being adept at submissions. Other talents and traits that lie right under the surface will need to be called on at some point.
In MMA, you will at some point be able to separate fighters by their ability to find another gear. Most fighters have a certain speed and intensity which they are comfortable fighting. For the most part, it’s good enough. They win fights with that one gear. Then, they begin facing guys who are able to hang with them. Now is when a fighter gets tested, to see if he’s ready to compete with the best.
In some fights, we get a frenetic fight, a unhinged battle that the fans love to see. The fighter who wins these fights is the guy who is able to kick it up a notch or two. His fighting form escalates with the urgency of the situation he faces in the octagon. Some fighters can’t do it. They’ve become accustomed fighting in that one gear and even though it has been successful in the past, it’s no longer enough. In closely-matched fights, it’s good to have your money behind a fighter who is able to kick it into another gear when necessary.
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Also be careful with fighters who don’t have much experience going rounds. A lot of fighters who get the most attention are the ones who are finishing fights. There is nothing wrong with that, unless that leaves them wholly unprepared to fight the full distance when asked. All fighters get to a level in this sport where their punches aren’t knocking out guys like before. Or their submission attempts are easily quashed. Then we see if they have what it takes.
So be careful with fighters who have ended all their fights early, or maybe went 3 full rounds only once or twice with undemanding opposition. A time will come where they are either in a tough 3 or 5-round fight with someone who is giving them all they can handle. So we need to be wary of betting on fighters whose fights have mostly ended quickly. Will it translate to the big-time or will these fighters drown in the conditions of a long and demanding fight?
One of the better attributes a fighter can have in his make-up is a high level of insistence. You see it all the time. Two fighters of relatively equal backgrounds and skill-level are in the octagon, with the edge clearly going to the more insistent fighter. It’s one of those things you can’t really teach. It comes from a high level of stamina, but it’s more a reflection of a fighter’s inner-drive. They press on and refuse to cave to bad thoughts or whatever their opponent is bringing to the table. They’re going to do their thing and nothing can stop them. They give the impression that you’d need a baseball bat to dissuade them from the task at hand.
When betting on fighters, we compare their skills and calculate how those abilities will play off each other. Well, we should be doing that, as it’s a focal point of MMA handicapping. If you bet on MMA long enough, however, you will notice a lot of fights are decided on more off-the-grid abilities, like a fighter’s level of insistence.
So look for fighters who have this gift of being ultra-insistent. They are able to absorb damage and overcome fighters who are perhaps better. It all boils down to what they have on the inside, a certain never-say-die spirit, an ability to not become discouraged at things that would crumble most normal fighters. They simply insist on not losing. They have a game plan and set of skills and they will use them, regardless of what they face in the octagon. In close fights, look for fighters who are insistent.
