MMA Betting: Wagering on Moderate Underdogs
By Loot, Mixed Martial Arts Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
There are obviously different kinds of underdogs. Sometimes, you don't really expect to win the bet. It's fine to bet on underdogs because the price is too good to pass up. You might feel a guy has a 3-1 chance to win, but he's going off at +600. Well, that's pretty good value, but we don't really expect to win at a very impressive clip betting on +600 underdogs.
Then there are underdogs where the expectations go up--fighters going off anywhere from +110 to +220--in that general range. These guys can, and often do win. And you can lose more often than you win and still turn a profit. These underdogs often times deserve a lot of your attention. When a fighter is an underdog to the tune of +160, that can be due to any number of factors that don't even have anything to do with fighting. The slightly-favored fighter might have a bigger name, more fan (betting) support, or just higher visibility.
Sometimes, a fighter being an underdog is a bad sign. There are some failures in his past that are making it so he is an underdog. Things that actually happened in the octagon. Other times, maybe he's just unknown. Sometimes, you see a well-established fighter facing a total unknown. Remember, the guys who sets these odds know what's going on. Otherwise, they wouldn't be in a position to set lines in the first place. And you'll see the known fighter only rated as a slight favorite over his unknown foe. That should send up warning flags.
Those betting on the favorite in that case might be making a sucker bet. The line looks so tantalizing that it's almost as if the book is tempting you to bet on it. That's because the oddsmakers know the unknown underdog has a helluva chance to win. He might not be known and his track record is not established, but he might be that diamond-in-the-rough that we all seek.
The first instinct in that case is to bet the favorite. After all, looking for good lines is a big part of wagering success. But such thinking can also have you going headlong right into a sucker bet unwittingly. So when a well-known fighter is a smaller than expected favorite over a relatively anonymous entity, consider why that would be. Do some research and start locking in these so-called underdogs who will be soon be favorites in their upcoming fights.
Winning bettors in MMA are hitting mild underdogs left and right. Upsets in MMA are hardly an aberration. A big part of the essence that draws people to fighting is the upset factor--that guys can buck the odds. If upsets weren't common, less people would watch. The outcomes would be too predictable. But in MMA, part of the appeal is that you're within reason to expect the unexpected.
Betting on mild underdogs can also be done in the parlay form. It can be difficult hitting one +200 favorite so getting two on the same ticket is a tall order. But it is one bet where the odds might justify the risk. Two mild underdogs coming through is a asking for a lot, but is it so uncommon? Seems like it happens on virtually every big MMA card.
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If you can occasionally hit one of those parlays, you can really boost your bankroll. You get hail mary results for what isn't really a hail mary attempt. If you are betting on a +1200 underdog, that qualifies as a stab in the dark. You can reap the exact same reward hitting a pair of underdogs in +200 and up region.
In this facet, it becomes really important to research the type of bets available at the various books. Some of them have restrictions on parlaying fights. There might be fights that you can put in a parlay and others where you cannot. It's a good idea to align yourself with a book that has a fairly open set of betting options. It can be a little upsetting to have your bets all planned out, only to find that you're not able to make the move you wanted to make.
