2016 NFL Coach of the Year Award Winner Futures Bets
By Loot, NFL Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Theoretically, the NFL Coach of the Year Award goes to the head coach who did the most with the talent he had. The last four awards have gone to two coaches—Bruce Arians and Ron Rivera. Both are among the top choices again this season. It's important, however, to take note at what type of season will generally make a coach a top candidate for this award.
Last season, Rivera won the award on the basis of taking Carolina from being so-so to almost having a perfect regular season and getting to the Super Bowl. You take a .500 team and make them 15-1—that's going to win the award more often than not. It doesn't even need to be that dramatic. In recent seasons, we've coaches like Sean Payton, Arians, Marvin Lewis, and Mike Smith win the award for taking a struggling team and just getting them to the postseason. And you also have winners of this award like Bill Belichick, who just has a really great season.
At the same time, this award doesn't really equate to Super Bowl glory. Belichick was the last coach to win this award with a Bowl-winning team and that was back in '03. It's not necessarily about excellence, it's about improvement. It's about the surprise factor and overachieving. As we notice that, there might be a gap for us to exploit when placing a Coach of the Year futures wager.
When looking at the odds for coach of the year, we see a lot of coaches from top teams at the top of the list. But when we look at the coaches who win this award, a lot of them aren't coming off great or even good seasons. Again, it's about improvement. So when a team wins 15 games the previous season, what can a coach realistically do to top that? We're going to go with an unorthodox and an admittedly high-risk approach. We're taking a handful of longer shots, knowing that it might be hard for those coaches at the top of the list to all not win the award. Here are our best picks, followed by the full list of odds to win the award for the best coach in 2016.
Our Top Choices to Win the NFL Coach of the Year
Jack Del Rio (+2500): Again, we're dealing with mid-range choices, with our first selection going off at a robust 25-to-1. If you have some faith that the Raiders can string together a good season, there's a certain value to Del Rio as a pick. They're still a major franchise in the game and one that as of now is a long-suffering one. If they won 11 games, Del Rio would be in there with a good chance.
Ben McAdoo (+3300): Another risky pick, but one with fat odds of 33-to-1. The Giants have been in a funk for a few seasons. The first work is in getting them to have a good season—no guarantee at all. But this is a franchise that can jump up and get you. If this is one of those years, McAdoo would probably get a lot of credit for it.
Chuck Pagano (+3300): If the Colts can get back to their form of a few seasons ago and make it happen with Andrew Luck back behind center, they could win a bunch of games. If they do, Pagano will be a viable option for this award. Whenever you have a team with this potential coming off some rocky passages, there's going to be some upside in making their coach a pick.
Bill O'Brien (+5500): It's surprising he didn't get more votes last season, though Rivera was the obvious choice. O'Brien getting the Texans to the postseason was among the better demonstrations of doing the most with what you have seen in some time. If they can resume the form they showed in the second-half of last season and win 11-12 games, O'Brien will be in the discussion at a tantalizing 55-to-1.
Adam Gase (+6500): The Dolphins have part one of the equation mastered—coming off a prolonged period of bad results and unfulfilled promise. Maybe a fresh start under a bright young coach can help materialize some of the talent the Dolphins have shown on paper recently. Even if you don't particularly like the 'Fins' chances this season, it's hard to scoff at 65-to-1.
Jim Caldwell (+8000): When the Lions opened last season with a 1-7 start, they looked like the worst team in the league and Caldwell was considered fortunate to survive the impending house-cleaning. He ended the season at 6-2 in his last 8 games, showing the Lions could be an interesting darkhorse heading into the 2016 campaign. If they did have a good season that culminated in a playoff appearance, the stark contrast from last season to this season could make Caldwell the right choice for the award. And he's 80-to-1!
Odds to Win the 2016-17 NFL Coach of the Year
Place your Bets on Who Will Win the Coach of the Year Award Using These Odds: 5DIMES
Bruce Arians +750
Bill Belichick +1000
Ron Rivera +1000
Mike McCarthy +1100
Andy Reid +1200
Mike Zimmer +1200
Pete Carroll +1200
Mike Tomlin +1400
Gus Bradley +1500
Marvin Lewis +2000
Gary Kubiak +2500
Jack Del Rio +2500
Todd Bowles +2500
Ben McAdoo +3300
Chuck Pagano +3300
Jason Garrett +3300
John Harbaugh +4000
Sean Payton +4000
Doug Pederson +5000
John Fox +5000
Bill O Brien +5500
Adam Gase +6500
Dirk Koetter +6600
Jay Gruden +7500
Rex Ryan +7500
Dan Quinn +8000
Jeff Fisher +8000
Jim Caldwell +8000
Chip Kelly +10000
Hue Jackson +10000
Mike McCoy +10000
Mike Mularkey +10000
