2016 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Futures Bets
By Loot, NFL Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Which offensive newcomer do you think will have the best season in 2016? There are a lot of compelling candidates this season. This takes a little projecting. Rookies can have ups and downs. You have to forecast if they'll be given a chance to play and grow in the event that they struggle. You have to handicap the level of competition they face for playing time. It's important to look at the guys around them. A lot of times, this comes down to a stats game and you have to anticipate who is in a better spot to do some damage along those lines.
Ezekiel Elliott, the Ohio State rookie, is being given an ideal spot to shine with the Cowboys. They will feed him the rock and he will surely put up some numbers that might be hard to deny. But at -110, there is very little value in selecting him, while also creating some nice numbers just beneath him. You don't have to go too far off-the-grid to start finding some glossy odds. After going just five names deep on the list, the odds start getting to 20-to-1 and beyond. In other words, the darkhorses aren't so dark after all, with viable choices fetching robust odds.
Since 1967, all winners of this award have either been quarterbacks, running backs, or wide receivers. That's bad news for guys like top-ten choice Laremy Tunsil, a tackle. Last season, RB Todd Gurley won this award and was preceded by Odell Beckham in '14, Eddie Lacy in '13, Robert Griffin, III. in 2012, and Cam Newton in 2011. You get the point.
While we're definitely going to try to get creative with some of our picks, we also notice that this award typically goes to very highly-fancied rookies. Since 2003, the only Offensive Rookie of the Year winner not selected in the first round was Eddie Lacy—a second rounder. At the same time, Lacy winning shows it's worth sometimes looking outside the group of the most-favored choices.
Here are some of our top picks to win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. We're going to make a few different picks, as it gives us a better chance and also provides fun having a vested stake in different players throughout their entire rookie season. Following our picks is the full list of candidates to win Offensive Rookie of the Year, with their corresponding odds. Take a look!
Loot's Choices to Win the 2016 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year
Ezekiel Elliott (-110): It's one of those low-value bets that may have a chance of looking high-value by midseason or even sooner. If he starts having the season he is capable of having, this could look like easy-money sooner than later. It's a pretty safe bet that Elliott is going to produce in this Dallas offense.
Jared Goff (+700): When a franchise like the Rams that haven't had a good QB in some time goes number-one in the draft, there's a chance that player is going to have at least some statistical success. And when the second choice is going off at 7 times the value of the top pick, that's nice too.
Laquon Treadwell (+1600): It's hard to tell if Minnesota's failings in the aerial game are a byproduct of the system, QB Teddy Bridgewater's ability to get vertical, or the Vikings' lack of aerial weapons. Maybe it's a little of all of those. But having Treadwell as a viable weapon in this offense could work out and make Treadwell an interesting choice.
Sterling Shepard (+1600): The Oklahoma receiver is now a member of the New York Giants, one of the best offenses for a young receiver to take flight. Under Eli Manning, a gaggle of receivers have put up big seasons, including Odell Beckham, who won this award a few years ago.
Corey Coleman (+2000): Being with the Browns might not be so bad for the purposes of this award. They have very little run-presence. Josh Gordon finding his way onto the field opens up things infinitely for other receivers like Coleman. A speedy vertical threat, look for Coleman to have a good rookie campaign.
Jordan Howard (+4000): We don't even know for sure if he'll be the Bears' starting back. But with Matt Forte with the Jets and the rest of the cast pretty thin with Jeremy Langford and Jacquizz Rogers, the promising and quick Howard could make his way on to the field and put up some numbers. After all, he's 40-to-1.
BET OUR PICKS TO WIN THE 2016 NFL OFFENSIVE ROOKIE OF THE YEAR AWARD USING THESE ODDS AT 5DIMES
Odds to Win the 2016 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year
Ezekiel Elliott -110
Jared Goff +700
Josh Doctson +1600
Laquon Treadwell +1600
Sterling Shepard +1600
Corey Coleman +2000
Will Fuller +2500
Derrick Henry +2700
Laremy Tunsil +2800
CJ Prosise +3500
Devontae Booker +3600
Braxton Miller +4000
Carson Wentz +4000
Jordan Howard +4000
Kenneth Dixon +4000
Paxton Lynch +4000
Leonte Carroo +5000
Malcolm Mitchell +5000
Michael Thomas +5000
Hunter Henry +6000
Pharoah Cooper +6000
Ricardo Louis +6000
Tyler Boyd +6000
Chris Moore +7000
Christian Hackenberg +7500
Paul Perkins +7500
Tyler Ervin +7500
DeAndre Washington +8500
Seth DeValve +8500
Demarcus Robinson +10000
Kenyan Drake +10000
Tyler Higbee +10000
Austin Hooper +12500
Jonathan Williams +15000
Moritz Boehringer +25000
Dak Prescott +30000
Cardale Jones +40000
Connor Cook +50000
Jacoby Brissett +50000
Kevin Hogan +50000