AFC North Division Exact Finishing Order in 2017
By Loot, NFL Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
One of the more-interesting NFL prop bets is when you bet on the exact finishing order of teams in their respective divisions. All divisions are 4-team groupings, so we're attempting to determine where each team will finish within that framework. There is also a bet when you can pick which team will simply win the division. With this bet, we're not betting on first place, but 2nd, 3rd, and 4th place. And as one can see by looking at the odds briefly, the odds can be pretty tasty for those willing to take a stand on a team's exact finishing order in the AFC North.
In this bet, the wager has two choices. You will be presented with a team and a position that they will finish in the division. You can either bet a team will finish in a certain position or that any other result will take place. Both sides of the bet can offer good betting value. Sometimes, you will feel really good about a team finishing in a certain position, but you might feel better that a team will finish in any other position than the one listed in the bet. There are different ways to approach this wager.
The AFC North is ripe for this kind of betting. While the Pittsburgh Steelers are the favorite to win the division, Cincinnati and Baltimore loom closely behind and are realistic threats to upset the defending AFC North champion Steelers. And you also have what appears to be a hopeless longshot in the Cleveland Browns. In regular divisional bets, you can only take the Browns to win the division, which qualifies as a pipe-dream. Here, you can take a less-severe stance on Cleveland and it can still pay off robustly.
Since 2012, the Steelers, Bengals, and Ravens have all been able to win the division. That illustrates the depth of the AFC North and how only Cleveland winning it would really qualify as surprising. That dynamic leaves us a lot of room with which to work. Let's take a look at all the different AFC North exact finishing order bets, along with the odds and a brief analysis of how worthy the proposition is to bet. Let's get started!
Baltimore finishes 2nd in AFC North +170
Any other result -230
Take: Baltimore is one of those teams in the league with an extreme possible range of different outcomes. Last season saw a slew of close games and it's not all that clear what kind of team we will see in 2017. But for them to finish second seems like a wholly-realistic outcome and at +170, the price isn't bad.
Baltimore finishes 3rd in AFC North +155
Any other result -195
Take: A stance can definitely be made on this bet, with presumably Pittsburgh and Cincy finishing ahead of the Ravens. Again, the Ravens are a hard team to get a read on before the season starts, but both sides of this bet can be justified—whether they'll finish third or anywhere besides third.
Baltimore finishes 4th in AFC North +525
Any other result -975
Take: This would require a pessimistic view on Baltimore. They would have to lose every close game and have that coincide with a Browns revival, something that isn't all that easy to imagine. But at +525, the number is appealing on certain levels. We still don't see it.
Cincinnati finishes 2nd in AFC North +155
Any other result -195
Take: At first glance, this seems like a likely outcome for the Bengals. The perennial division power fell off some last season and missed the postseason. The Steelers look to again be the class of the division, but one with a formula that can be easily upset. The Ravens could be tough. But second seems like a solid choice for the Bengals.
Cincinnati finishes 3rd in AFC North +185
Any other result -265
Take: Not a difficult stance to take. After all, they did finish in third place last season. At +185, the price is decent, as is the price for them to finish anywhere other than third. We prefer the latter and even though this happened last year, we don't see everything falling so conveniently into place in '17.
Cincinnati finishes 4th in AFC North +500
Any other result -900
Take: Anything is possible and this league is a constantly-evolving one where yesterday's good teams can be bad tomorrow. But if anything, it seems like the Bengals would be better than last season and it's hard to envision them being passed by Cleveland. For a big-chalk player, them not finishing in last at -900 has some appeal.
Cleveland finishes 2nd in AFC North +1225
Any other result -2675
Take: In 12 of the past 14 seasons, the Browns have finished in last place. While there are some things to like about the direction they're going, a scenario where they leapfrog two teams is hard to imagine. And if you were to imagine it, you'd like better than +1225. And having a bet with odds of -2675 for them to not be in second where it takes months to decide has almost no appeal.
Cleveland finishes 3rd in AFC North +330
Any other result -490
Take: For those who either have a rosy opinion of the 2017 Browns or they feel one of the other frontrunners could potentially be terrible, this bet has some appeal. Again, +330 isn't terrific for the Browns being good enough to avoid being in the AFC North cellar again this season.
Cleveland finishes 4th in AFC North -340
Any other result +247
Take: Again, 12 last-place finishes in 14 seasons is hard to overlook and the price of -340 isn't too bad. It almost seems too easy, however. Once you notice a pattern, it's due to end. Be that as it may, -340 seems like a good bet for them to again occupy the division cellar. And for those expecting a change, "any other result" at +247 isn't too bad, either.
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Pittsburgh finishes 2nd in AFC North +245
Any other result -335
Take: The division favorites are one of those teams that doesn't quite extract the most of what they have. Throw Big Ben's increasing fragility and the Bell holdout into the equation, a second place finish for the Steelers is entirely defensible and at +245, not a bad value.
Pittsburgh finishes 3rd in AFC North +475
Any other result -825
Take: This is a bet that is interesting on a few different levels. Say Big Ben gets hurt or things just don't click for whatever reason, Baltimore and Cincinnati could pass them by. At +475, there is good value for what really is an alternate viewpoint, but one that isn't a total pipe-dream, either.
Pittsburgh finishes 4th in AFC North +4000
Any other result -16000
Take: If you're trying to win a bet, this seems like one to avoid. What would need to take place to bring this to fruition would need to be almost of an earth-shattering nature. Still, +4000 isn't a bad price even if it would require one of the biggest franchise collapses in recent memory. Tired of your credit card not working for sportsbook deposit? End that problem today by signing up at Bovada Sportsbook where your credit card WILL work and where you'll receive a generous 50% sign-up bonus!
