Baltimore Ravens (4-5 SU, 4-4-1 ATS) vs. Green Bay Packers (5-4 SU, 4-5 ATS)
Week 11 NFL
Date/Time: Sunday, November 19, 2017 at 1PM EST
Where: Lambeau Field, Green Bay, Wisconsin
TV: CBS
By Loot, NFL Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Point Spread: BAL -2/GB +2
Over/Under Total: 38
The Baltimore Ravens come to Lambeau Field for a week 11 matchup with the Green Bay Packers. Baltimore is at 4-5 and hasn't been very dependable after a 2-0 start. They are hoping to now come off the bye-week with some urgency, having lost their last game before the break, 23-20, the Titans. They look to get to .500 this week against a Packers team that won its first game without Aaron Rodgers, beating Chicago on the road on Sunday, 23-16. It was a timely win and at 5-4, maybe the Packers aren't the lost cause people thought they were when they lost three in a row. A win here would really go a long way for Green Bay.
Baltimore started off well, but other than being dangerous in spots, they've fallen off some. After crushing Miami the previous week, 40-0, they fell to Tennessee is pretty uninspiring fashion. They hung in there well for most of the game in what was a difficult road-spot. They were in the game until Tennessee went up late by ten, with Baltimore adding a late touchdown to make it a 3-point margin. On both sides of the ball, they have been very erratic. They have been one of the more difficult teams to bet on the last several weeks. And all season, some of these Baltimore point spreads have been off by a considerable margin.
At just over 21 points a game, the Baltimore offense is hardly potent this season. Then again, in the right spots, they will be surprisingly prolific. That works the other way also, as we've seen this side of the ball go into long slumbers. Joe Flacco is hardly having a good season, as he is handcuffed by dodgy play up-front and a stripped-bare crew of playmakers on offense. But despite a recent concussion, his play over the last few weeks has been the best he's put forth all season. Mike Wallace came back last week with a TD catch and they will need him with WR Jeremy Maclin questionable with a shoulder injury. While it doesn't always fire, they have a decent 1-2 punch developing out of the backfield with backs Alex Collins and Javorious Allen, who is also a valuable short-pass weapon. Again, the recipe for success on this side of the ball is a dicey one perhaps, but part of being erratic is that sometimes they can be effective.
Also plagued with some inconsistency is the Baltimore defense. After a great start to the season, they ebbed considerably. But after a rough patch, they are doing well giving up 23 total points in the last two weeks. They have been getting a more-robust pass-rush in recent weeks, with Terrell Suggs still getting after it, with others like Matthew Judon chipping in, as well. Their secondary is actually quite good, starring Eric Weddle and Tony Jefferson—a pair of tremendous safeties. At corner, Brandon Carr, Jimmy Smith, Lardarius Webb, and others have been stout, while making big plays. They have 18 turnovers this season.
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Under normal circumstances, a win over the Bears wouldn't count for a ton. But after losing three straight and facing an uncertain future with Aaron Rodgers out, the 23-16 win over the Bears on Sunday was big for the Packers. Despite falling into a funk when Rodgers went out with a collarbone injury, they are still vaguely in it at 5-4. Sunday was something they can build on moving forward. The offense had some pep, with the defense playing a lot better than it had been in the past month or so.
The Packers needed some new people to step up with Rodgers out and Sunday, we started to see a bit of that—better play from backup Brett Hundley and a developing ground-game that could really pay off down the line. Hundley was efficient on 18-for-25 passing with 212 yards, a touchdown, and no picks, though he hurt his hamstring. He connected nicely with Davante Adams, who had 90 yards and a TD on the day. He hasn't connected much with Jordy Nelson, which is something they'd like to do in coming weeks. On the ground, they've been seeing rookie Jamaal Williams getting involved. They've gotten some production from Aaron Jones this season so far. Also, Ty Montgomery ran for a TD and 54 yards on just 6 carries. Some variety out of the backfield could be just what this offense needs.
Holding down an inconsistent Bears' offense might not stand out as a great accomplishment, but for a Packers defense that had been getting worse over the course of the season, Sunday counts as a moral victory. With a little more than ten minutes left in the game, the Packers had held the Bears to just 6 points, with the Bears adding a few late scores to give Green Bay a little sweat. All in all, it was a solid showing. They held Chicago to 4-for-14 on third downs, while containing a strong run-game, keeping the Bears contained to just 55 yards on the ground. Helping the cause up-front was DT Mike Daniels who was active and had a sack. LB Nick Perry was huge with three sacks on the day.
One should expect the win on Sunday to have had an invigorating affect on the Packers. For all they've been through this season, they are still 5-4—a spot a lot of teams would like to be in right now. A lot of this comes down to Baltimore. If they come off the bye-week and show up playing good defense with a strong run-game and Flacco showing some of the form he has shown the past few weeks, they should be able to get back to .500 this week. The thought here is that things won't line up so perfectly for the Ravens this week at Lambeau, a field and setting they don't see very often. I see the Packers getting it done at home.
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