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Baltimore Ravens vs. Kansas City Chiefs Point Spread - Pick

Baltimore Ravens (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS)
Week 3 NFL
Date/Time: Sunday, September 22, 2019 at 1PM EST
Where: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri
TV: CBS

By Loot, NFL Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com

Point Spread: BAL +6.5/KC -6.5
Over/Under Total: 55

In a big AFC matchup on Sunday, the Baltimore Ravens come into Arrowhead to take on the Kansas City Chiefs. This is a battle of 2-0 teams looking to stay unbeaten in this big game at Arrowhead. The Chiefs, a conference favorite, have looked every part of it through two weeks, following conclusive wins over the Jaguars and then a 28-10 win over the Raiders last Sunday. They should be tested this week against a Baltimore team that has looked good in wins over Miami and Arizona to open the season. But for them also, things ramp up a notch this week with a tough spot in Arrowhead.

In a league with so many changes, it remains doubtful how reliable a road map last season's results are, but for what it's worth, the Chiefs beat Baltimore last season, 27-24, in overtime. For Baltimore, Jackson threw for two TDs and had some nice runs. With far greater aerial weaponry this season, look for them to try to make more noise this season. Most of the big contributors for KC in this matchup last season are injured or departed, but they are deep on offense and should find new faces to make an impact. Can Baltimore be as competitive at Arrowhead as they were at home late last regular season?

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Baltimore looks like a potential contender. A defense that made its presence known last season has surfaced in good form to start the season. And with Lamar Jackson behind center, he has shown a greater aerial flair this season and combined with a rising and deep run-game, the offense looks to be in good hands. Jackson has averaged nearly 300 yards a game on the young season and with added juice in the receiver category, he could really make it stick this season. Again, beating Miami and the Cardinals do not a season make, but first signs are as good as Baltimore could have hoped.

Jackson flashed his legs last season, but the thought was that he needed to forge more of an aerial presence and so far, so good in 2019. It's hard to not get excited at rookie Marquise Brown, as the young receiver has shown his teeth early in the campaign. Second-year tight end Mark Andrews has started the season with two straight 100-yard games with a TD catch in each. We're seeing some exciting things from the run-game. On Sunday, Jackson scooted for 120 yards on the day, while first-year Raven Mark Ingram backed up a big week one performance with some nice runs on Sunday, also adding a new ball-catching threat for Jackson. So far, it looks like the changes have come off very well in Baltimore.

After allowing 27 points combined through two weeks, the Baltimore defense looks to have picked up where it left off last regular season, when they were a shutdown unit at times. Naturally, facing an offensive juggernaut at Arrowhead might throw some of that into a different light. Against a decimated Miami offense and a young Arizona group still trying to find their way, they looked really good, especially against the run, allowing very little through two games. The front, with Brandon Williams, Pernell McPhee, and Michael Pierce, have been excellent. Earl Thomas at safety has been paying off and they really get after it. Not only are they rigid, but they make plays and can change the complexion of a game.

The Chiefs look pretty good. After losing Tyreek Hill, they have kept applying the heat aerially, with other guys stepping up to fill the void. It really speaks volumes when an offense can lose its leading receiver and the defending rushing champion, all within a year, and still can put forth a rampaging offense. Defending MVP quarterback Patrick Mahomes continues to pour it on. And in giving up 36 points in two games total, the defense looks improved, with the added personnel delivering on their promise. After beating the Jaguars in week one fairly-convincingly on the road, they fell behind Oakland 10-0 on Sunday, before shutting them down for the better part of three quarters en route to a 38-10 win.

Mahomes has been a dynamo and his presence makes one even think the pieces around him are almost secondary. Looking at what they've lost without missing a step, it makes you wonder. Luckily for them, they have a lot going for them in terms of weaponry. We're seeing Sammy Watkins rise in the absence of Hill, with TE Travis Kelce doing his thing. On Sunday, we saw Kelce delivering big, with the unlikely duo of DeMarcus Robinson and Mecole Hardman coming through big aerially. The late acquisition of LeSean McCoy paid off in week one, though they didn't need his services on Sunday with Mahomes going for 443 yards. It's a deep cast led by a real force at quarterback.

The Chiefs added a lot to the defense and the verdict is still inconclusive. Their offense bailed them out against Jacksonville, who was able to move the ball in putting up 26 points. Then in week 2, they looked readily-exploitable early with the Raiders putting up ten quick points. But they really locked it down for the rest of the game with the Raiders not getting back on the scoreboard. I expect a more-rigid test this week from a Baltimore offense that boasts a lot of speed and variety. This is where we'll see if the pass-rush can get around to speed and they will need to. We'll see if the front-seven is up to the task of stopping a very unique and explosive Baltimore running game.

I think people may be slow to recognize what might become a reality and that's the notion of the Ravens being real contenders. Combine that with the fact that the Chiefs were in soft the first two weeks and there could be some real value on the Ravens here on the road. Any shortcomings the Chiefs may have from losing key artillery on offense or on the other side of the ball would likely come more to light under the pressure of a well-contested game with the Ravens, who are eager to show they are players in this conference. I'm going to take a whirl on Baltimore.

Loot's Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I'm betting on the Baltimore Ravens plus 6.5 points. Did you know... that you could be wagering on games at discounted odds? There's a better than good chance that you're laying -110 odds (or more) with your book. Stop overpaying TODAY by making the switch to 5Dimes Sportsbook! You will be so glad that you did!

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