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Buffalo Bills vs. Atlanta Falcons Point Spread - Pick

Buffalo Bills (2-1 SU, 3-0 ATS) vs. Atlanta Falcons (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS)
Week 4 NFL
Date/Time: Sunday, October 1, 2017 at 1PM EST
Where: Mercedes Benz Stadium

By Loot, NFL Football Handicapper,

Point Spread: BUF +8/ATL -8
Over/Under Total: 48.5

The Buffalo Bills come down south to face the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday in week four action from the new Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Both teams were victorious this past week. The Falcons narrowly avoided a last-second comeback by the Detroit Lions, scoring a big road-win, 30-26. They look to make it 4-0 against the 2-1 Bills. On Sunday, the underdog Bills scored an impressive 26-16 win over the 2-0 Denver Broncos. They have covered the spread in all of their games this season.

The Bulls look to have found another gear this season under first-year head coach Sean McDermott. They beat the Jets, narrowly lost in a tough road game in Carolina, before beating a good Denver team at home on Sunday. They now get their second shot to beat an NFC South team on the road, where they may be out of their element, but showed their defense travels well against the Panthers a few weeks ago. The Buffalo offense was versatile on Sunday, while their defense was able to register big plays at the end to repel the Denver comeback attempt.

Buffalo QB Tyrod Taylor had an effective and efficient day on Sunday for the Bills. He completed 20 of 26 passes with 213 yards and two touchdowns with no picks. He was forced to become more-aerial with the run-game being bottled up by a good Denver "D." But having success against the Denver secondary was perhaps even more-impressive. LeSean McCoy was held to very little on the ground, though he did have 7 catches, with Mike Tolbert leading the team with 44 yards on the ground. Taylor made connections with Jordan Matthews, while Charles Clay and Andre Holmes hauled in touchdown grabs. In the last two games, however, the Buffalo O-line has been laboring in keeping the opposing pass-rush in check, as well as in springing the run-game. Being thin at tackle with Cordy Glenn out seems like a likely culprit. They hope to get him back soon.

The Buffalo defense was big on Sunday. After Trevor Siemian looked so good the previous week, the Buffalo defense made him look a lot worse with no TD throws and two picks. Secondary members Tra'Davious White and EJ Gaines both had picks. Shaq Lawson, Kyle Williams, and Lorenzo Alexander all had sacks. They hope they have both defensive tackles this week, with Jerel Worthy having missed three games and Marcell Dareus sitting the last one out with a bad ankle. Linebackers Ramon Humber and Preston Brown have been very active on this unit so far on the young season. Even in the one game they lost, this group gave up just 9 points. They look pretty dependable through three games.


Hats off to Atlanta for the way they have begun the season. They have beaten the Packers and Lions in consecutive weeks, barely overcoming Detroit in a great road win on Sunday, 30-26. Detroit was ruled to take the lead on late touchdown, but it was ruled that the receiver was down before he hit the goal-line and a ten second run-off locked up the nerve-racking win for the Dirty Birds. They had to overcome a lot of mistakes and a Detroit team that always seems to come up with the right answers late. They now return home for their second game in their new building.

On Sunday, Matt Ryan was uncharacteristic with three picks, as the Falcons had to overcome mistakes all game to beat the Lions. Ryan still threw for two touchdowns and 294 yards, getting big games from Julio Jones and Taylor Gabriel, as well as a touchdown catch from Mohamed Sanu. Helping a lot was Devonta Freeman, who ran for 106 yards and a TD. Tevin Coleman was useful with 46 yards on the ground and another 43 through the air. It shows that even when things aren't going particularly well, they can still salvage a win against a good team. They hope T Ryan Schraeder can return this week, as his replacement was not adept at stopping the pass-rush.

The Falcons' defense was not at their best against Detroit. Late in the game, two Desmond Trufant penalties on Detroit's final game nearly led to a defeat. But the "D" kept Detroit from ever taking the lead in the game and in a contest where the offense was atypically mistake-prone, the defense made enough big plays and kept Detroit from having one of their customary last-minute comebacks. In the secondary, S Brian Poole was big on the day, as was Robert Alford and Keanu Neal. In the middle, Deion Jones made a lot of plays, along with De'Vondre Campbell. Up-front, Dontari Poe and Grady Jarrett didn't allow the Detroit run-game to get rolling, while defensive ends Adrian Clayborn and Takkarist McKinley both registered sacks against Matthew Stafford. They look to keep the pass-rush on-point with Vic Beasley still missing time.

Buffalo faces a tough test on Sunday in an environment in which they are unaccustomed. But at the same time, this Bills bunch appears to have a lot more going for it than in recent seasons, as evidenced by them covering all of their spreads this season thus far. If looking to time an Atlanta letdown, this could be the week. They put a lot of effort into starting at 3-0 and Buffalo is looking at this as a golden opportunity. I envision a plucky performance from the Bills on Sunday.

Loot's Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I'm betting on the Buffalo Bills plus 8 points. Tired of your credit card not working for sportsbook deposit? End that problem today and bet the Bills vs. Falcons game by signing up at Bovada Sportsbook where your credit card WILL work and where you'll receive a generous 50% sign-up bonus!

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