Buffalo Bills (8-3 SU, 7-3-1 ATS) vs. Dallas Cowboys (6-5 SU, 7-4 ATS)
Week 13 NFL
Date/Time: Thursday, Thanksgiving Day, November 28, 2019 at 4:30PM EST
Where: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas
TV: CBS
By Loot, NFL Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Point Spread: BUF +7/DAL -7
Over/Under Total: 45
The Buffalo Bills take on the Dallas Cowboys on Thanksgiving at AT&T Stadium. The Bills are now 8-3, following a 20-3 win over the Broncos on Sunday. For a team that hasn't achieved a lot of success lately, they are finally seeing some good things happen, with Josh Allen commandeering a great run-game with a defense that makes a big impact. They look for a stamp of validation in this high-profile game against a Dallas team that is looking for a positive development after falling to the Patriots on Sunday, 13-9. While still leading the NFC East, a home win against a good team is what the doctor ordered at this point in the Cowboys season.
Obviously with an ATS record nearly as good as their overall record, the Bills have snuck up on some people this season with their form. And why wouldn't they? Josh Allen has been great, but doesn't get a lot of run in the press. The offense is made up of unheralded rookie Devin Singletary and ancient Frank Gore, along with pass-catchers like Cole Beasley, John Brown, and Dawson Knox. The defense has also played a huge role, but with no standout names, they are also sometimes overlooked. Naysayers can also point to the quality of their opposition, with their eight wins coming against the Jets' Giants, Bengals, Titans, Dolphins (twice), Redskins, and Broncos. That's a lot of bad teams and not one that can be called a good team. So, it's a mixed bag, as they are a team that could be better than some suspect, while they also still have something to prove.
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The Buffalo offense isn't going to knock anyone's socks off. They are more subtle, with an improved offensive line and running game, bolstered by improved play from their second-year quarterback. Efficient through the air, Allen has connected well with Brown who is a real weapon. Allen has used his feet to get in the end zone seven times on top of his 15 TD throws. Some of those runs were super clutch. Singletary is really coming around, Gore is the rock, and Allen adds a dash of his own flair. In their last three wins, they have won by an average of over 17 points. So while not overwhelming on paper, they get a lot out of what they have.
Should the Bills make a run this season, it will be the defensive side of the ball that will have played the biggest part. They are becoming more-balanced and on Sunday, the Broncos run and pass both struggled mightily with a mere three points of scoring. Their secondary is tip-top, with Tre'Davious White making plays, along with Micah Hyde, Levi Wallace, and Jordan Poyer. The middle is strong with Matt Milano, Tremaine Edmunds and there are monsters up front with Star Lotulelei, Shaw Lawson, and others. Only twice this season has an opponent gone over 20 points of scoring on the Bills. In the last 4 games, they have given up a combined total of only 51 points. Things ramp up a notch this week, but that also applies to the Dallas offense.
Dallas gets their second chance in as many weeks to see their offense thrive against a solid defense. Against the best in the NFL last week in Foxborough, they certainly didn't have many answers. The defense played well, but it wasn't enough. In a critical game, they didn't catch any breaks in getting the Pats on the road. But they played them close, covered the spread, and maybe the picture isn't as bad as it is for most 6-5 NFC teams, Still leading the NFC East, the Cowboys still have a playoff future, but they need to start putting together some wins. And they need the confidence that comes from beating a good team that is going to the playoffs, something they haven't done yet.
Judging an offense based on how they did against the Patriots isn't the best way to evaluate a group, but there were some ugly signs on Sunday. No catches for Amari Cooper, no big runs from Ezekiel Elliott, less than 200 yards and no TDs from Dak Prescott. That's not going to work. Too many times, we see this offense fail to deliver a composite product that their individual parts would suggest. With a sound line, one of the best backs in the business, and an aerial corps that should be able to do damage, the results should be more consistent and they shouldn't have 6 games already this season where they scored 18 or fewer points.
When the offense doesn't deliver and you still manage to hold a home Patriots team to 13 points it speaks pretty well of a Dallas defense that was coming off a rough patch. Brady was held to 17 on 37 completions with less than 200 yards, as the Dallas pass-defense continues to shine with Chibode Awuzie, Byron Jones, Darian Thompson, and Xavier Woods. Again, another sterling performance was squandered with the Dallas offense not doing its share of the heavy lifting. This week against a Buffalo offense that isn't the best, maybe this "D" can make it stick.
This is a big game for Buffalo, as the naysayers are still rampant. A win over a first-place team on the road would answer some of those questions. But even though this game comes against an out-of-conference foe where Dallas has no real axe to grind, this is a big game for them—at home on Thanksgiving with their legitimacy on the line. This is where they show they are either a playoff threat or an otherwise also-ran team that lucked into being in a bad division. I see the Cowboys nicking it in this one.
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