Buffalo Bills (5-5 SU, 5-4-1 ATS) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (6-4 SU, 6-4 ATS)
Week 12 NFL
Date/Time: Sunday, November 26, 2017 at 1PM EST
Where: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri
TV: CBS
By Loot, NFL Football Handicapper, Lootmeister.com
Point Spread: BUF +9.5/KC -9.5
Over/Under Total: 45
The Buffalo Bills come to Arrowhead to face the Kansas City Chiefs in a week 12 matchup on Sunday. Neither team is having a good time of it lately. The Bills have now dropped three straight, rendering a 5-2 start moot. On Sunday, they were battered by the Chargers, 54-24, to fall to 5-5. The Chiefs have now lost two straight and 4 of their last five, coming off the bye-week on Sunday to lose in overtime to a one-win Giants team, 12-9, to fall to 6-4. Several weeks ago, these teams looked like contenders and are now in a position where they really need a win.
After five games through the season, the Chiefs looked to be AFC frontrunners, going 5-0 and looking good on both sides of the ball. And even as the losses started coming in, one could figure that they would snap out of it, but after 4 losses in five games, the swoon is officially real. To be in a state of such struggle and emerge from the bye-week to lose to the Giants has to be a hard pill for the Chiefs to swallow. After two straight road games, they return home this week in need of a win badly. Granted, they don't make it out to East Rutherford often and maybe they were out of their element and caught a version of the Giants' defense that snapped back into last season's form. Whatever the case, the Chiefs are in real trouble.
Sunday was a bad day for the Chiefs offense, as they didn't find the end zone, despite 363 yards of offense. Alex Smith threw one interception all season, but threw two on Sunday, with TE Travis Kelce also throwing one on a trick play. RB Kareem Hunt wasn't great, with 73 yards rushing, though that was his best showing in weeks, as he has slowed down after a great start to his NFL career. Kelce continues putting up good receiving numbers and was effective with 8 catches and 109 yards, with Tyreek Hill adding seven catches on the day. But the infusion of big plays on offense that we saw in the first five games of the season has ebbed considerably.
One can't really call out the Kansas City defense for what happened on Sunday against the Giants. They allowed a second quarter TD, and then tightened up considerably. Eli Manning did not have a good day and the Giants' run-game was limited to 112 yards on 32 carries. Daniel Sorensen had a pick, with CB Kenneth Acker recovering a fumble. They've gotten healthier, with S Ron Parker looking good since coming back from injury. But the pass-rush and the big plays they were coming up with early has dissipated and we've seen more instances of when they are readily-exploitable and just not making much of a positive impact.
We now turn to a Buffalo team that has its own issues. A 5-2 start is seemingly a distant memory at this point, as they have really fallen off badly in the last three weeks. The offense seemingly lost its mojo, with a defense that has officially bottomed out. In the last two games, they have yielded a combined 101 points. Ever since losing to the Jets on Thursday Night Football three weeks ago when they gave up 34 points, it's as if the defense lost all of its effectiveness suddenly and dramatically. After looking as if they found the winning formula under first-year coach Sean McDermott, they now face a crisis and if Sunday is any indication, finding their way back to the right track might not be that easy.
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The Bills now have to regroup at the quarterback position. After starting Nathan Peterman and benching Tyrod Taylor in a move where many questioned the timing, they now have to abandon that plan. After throwing an obscene five picks in the first half of the Chargers' game, the Bills threw Taylor back out there and he was better. At least he put a stop to the interception parade. Granted, the game was out of hand when Buffalo put up their numbers of offense, including a pair of meaningless fourth-quarter touchdowns. Taylor threw for a TD pass and ran another one in. LeSean McCoy was over 100 yards with a touchdown. Zay Jones caught some balls, with TE Charles Clay working his way back into the rotation. While Kelvin Benjamin had yet to make a dent as a member of his new team, a knee injury looks as through they might be without his services.
The Buffalo defense is really in a state of free-fall now. They haven't gotten much right lately, looking like the worst "D" in the league over the last three weeks. One of their big playmakers, safety Micah Hyde, also left the game with a knee injury. In their first five games, no team surpassed 20 points in scoring against the Bills. In the last three games, they have given up 135 points—a colossal amount of production by opposing offenses. And in two of those games, they played the Jets and Chargers, not exactly powerful offenses this season. The disconnect lately on this side of the ball is really a curious thing and not easy to explain away.
When dealing with two deteriorating teams, the challenge is deep for the betting man. Neither team has shown any reliability lately. With both teams at this point, anything seems possible in terms of possible results. There is very little about the Chiefs that would make one eager to plunk down money on them while giving away points. And maybe with Tyrod Taylor getting a second chance, he will rise to the occasion, as the Bills were better in the second half against the Chargers. Still, if the urgency doesn't resonate in a positive way for a home Chiefs team this week, it could be curtains for them. I expect that sentiment to surface, with the Chiefs having a good game.
Loot's Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I'm betting on the Kansas City Chiefs minus 9.5 points. Tired of your credit card not working for sportsbook deposit? End that problem today and bet the Buffalo vs. Kansas City game by signing up at Bovada Sportsbook where your credit card WILL work and where you'll receive a generous 50% sign-up bonus!
